tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post7724179451058853059..comments2024-02-26T08:05:58.174-08:00Comments on ECONOMICROT: Open ForumRandyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09221346085089343469noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-17034906932903131892009-04-15T12:00:00.000-07:002009-04-15T12:00:00.000-07:00On the topic Teabag partyOn the topic <A HREF="http://open.salon.com/blog/mortimer_hayden_smyth/2009/04/15/teabagging_and_beyond/" REL="nofollow">Teabag party</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-47012168075635968462009-04-13T13:33:00.000-07:002009-04-13T13:33:00.000-07:00I have approached a view using the Dow Jones Indus...I have approached a view using the Dow Jones Industrial Average Closing figures.<BR/> <BR/>Dow Jones on 1-April-91 was at 2881.19. As on 30-Mar-09 it stands at 7522.02<BR/>Investors as early as 1991 have received positive returns.<BR/>On closer noting, positive returns; with reference to 30-Mar-09 closing on Dow Jones; has been to investors only earlier to 13-Nov-97<BR/> <BR/>Investors in Dow Jones Index Fund, after 13-Nov-97 will have received negative return on their capital with an exception of three days in 2002 and many days after Feb-09.<BR/> <BR/>For over a decade, in reference to 30-Mar-09 closing, the customer has received nothing on the capital invested. <BR/> <BR/> <BR/>I also compare it with a systematic investment plan investing into Dow Jones Industrial Average.<BR/> <BR/>The example in the attachment states a monthly investment of $10,000 [Total investment = 2,170,000] from 1-Apr-91 till 30-Mar-09 in the beginning of each month in Dow Jones. Units purchased and accumulated when converted using 30-Mar-09 closing of Dow Jones as value gives an account value of $2,490,496.<BR/> <BR/>Absolute return of 15% in 18 years or IRR of 0.364%mahalinga@gmail.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15162536202517069589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-74821957159004673332009-04-13T12:01:00.000-07:002009-04-13T12:01:00.000-07:00I heard from him via an email on the 8th. Nothing...I heard from him via an email on the 8th. Nothing since that time though.<BR/><BR/>Justin_n_IlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-13527632313166638942009-04-13T11:51:00.000-07:002009-04-13T11:51:00.000-07:00http://www.goldmansachs666.com/Goldman Sachs is go...http://www.goldmansachs666.com/<BR/><BR/>Goldman Sachs is going after this blogger with a law suit. Check this out.jerryhttp://eye-on-washington.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-10803316360765454012009-04-13T09:32:00.000-07:002009-04-13T09:32:00.000-07:00I sure hope Randy is on business or vacation, sinc...I sure hope Randy is on business or vacation, since his absence has many of us worried, at this point in time.<BR/>Any clues out there?jerryhttp://eye-on-washington.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-85410811063346581262009-04-13T00:32:00.000-07:002009-04-13T00:32:00.000-07:00To the comment directly above I say amen, amen, an...To the comment directly above I say amen, amen, and amen. <BR/>-IconoclastAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-50557250611900847262009-04-12T22:04:00.000-07:002009-04-12T22:04:00.000-07:00I'm struggling with the economic Plan presented by...I'm struggling with the economic Plan presented by Chris:<BR/><BR/><BR/>1)The plan is supposed to help. If I understand the current situation right now, it's that the bankters in charge are purposely destroying the economy. Why would they want to reverse that with a plan that would work?<BR/><BR/>2)If you are so high up on the food chain that the government will review your plan why would you spend your time blogging?<BR/><BR/>3)This plan as I understand it would make us a producing economy. We would then be competitors against the very people we are indebted. Why would they want that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-78552869765032104182009-04-12T14:21:00.000-07:002009-04-12T14:21:00.000-07:00We have been wondering the same thing. It is spri...We have been wondering the same thing. It is spring break. but is it getting close to 2 weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-40689030571642958332009-04-12T14:09:00.000-07:002009-04-12T14:09:00.000-07:00what has happened to randy ? i have been reading t...what has happened to randy ? i have been reading this site for over a year and he has never left this longAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-45440626596326706052009-04-11T17:05:00.000-07:002009-04-11T17:05:00.000-07:00The 2008 earnings of the S&P 500 were at $14, ...The 2008 earnings of the S&P 500 were at $14, this implies a P/E ratio of 850 / 14 = 60. So, the US stockmarket is still highly overvalued. Let's assume a P/E of 15 then the S&P 500 should be at 14*15 = 210.<BR/>Analysts assume 2009 earnings to be $ 28, with a P/E ratio of 15 the S&P 500 should go down to 28 * 15 = 420. Source: <A HREF="http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo041009.pdf" REL="nofollow">John Mauldin</A>.Willy2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-73506371937077700842009-04-10T18:09:00.000-07:002009-04-10T18:09:00.000-07:00Woot! Just saw myself on television. They did a ...Woot! Just saw myself on television. They did a good job outlining the theory. :)<BR/><BR/>I would suggest that we got here by leveraging an inequality, and we're falling because the people we exploit are becoming more capable. I'm providing the government a means to sustain the inequality for a longer period, but I'm a recipient of the benefits. Were I living in a deprived nation, my view would differ greatly.<BR/><BR/>If we want to work 8 hours in trade for what another builds in 40, there must be a reason... people must feel the value trade is worthwhile. Information sharing is eliminating that reason. In the short run, it's possible to protect information rights so there is no choice but to pay the price. That can't run indefinately, but it would enable a slow reset and ensure a higher global standard when equalization occurs.<BR/><BR/>I would appreciate a slower reset, but I don't feel this system should permit such inequality indefinately. Parity is the ethical option... I'd just like to reach it with a little less pain.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-60655583203177412552009-04-10T16:14:00.000-07:002009-04-10T16:14:00.000-07:00Jerry, Chris,The problem is deeper than economic -...Jerry, Chris,<BR/><BR/>The problem is deeper than economic - and, therefore, the solution has to be deeper than economic.<BR/><BR/>We have gotten where we've gotten because of a number of interlocking failures that cut accross our cultural landscape. Jerry's ideas address the problems, but in order to really get ourselves in a long-term solid position, we have to interpolate from where we are to "how did we get here", identify the most fundamental causes that were tied to the most "bad" effects and remediate them. <BR/><BR/>If we fail to do that, we will simply "prop up" the system for some period of time after which it will just fall down harder.<BR/><BR/>Dive deep.Jordan Greenhallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17390574567056047685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-17234680391250439632009-04-09T21:28:00.000-07:002009-04-09T21:28:00.000-07:00My error... he does explain similar principles. T...My error... he does explain similar principles. That's cool.<BR/><BR/>Buring my head in the sand though, for his movie was created in 2007.Siegenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-29943205123146913092009-04-09T20:53:00.000-07:002009-04-09T20:53:00.000-07:00What is all your take on the rise in bank stocks? ...What is all your take on the rise in bank stocks? Where is Citi and the rest headed on Monday? I read that massive short selling is going on. Market-ticker is calling it out as a scam. Did the banks really need the taxpayer handoff or what? Check out Denninger's take on the banks in his today's posting.<BR/><BR/>There was big money being made yesterday and today. My friend on my blog has been buying up Citi and feels it will hit 18 by next Friday.<BR/><BR/>I am a wacko principlist. I won't join in in on the buying frenzy just because they are Wall Street crime syndicate thieves. So I fail in riding the profit's wave. I can live with myself for not being a hypocrite. That is just my wacko mind working.<BR/><BR/>I want to hear what you all think will happen over the next 5 trading days. Spell it out in a practical sense. I know what your philosophies are.jerryhttp://eye-on-washington.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-74879007303760783752009-04-09T18:16:00.000-07:002009-04-09T18:16:00.000-07:00I see more than slight similarities. Feelin a lit...I see more than slight similarities. Feelin a little ripped, but my perspective now has followers I guess.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-14972216209704501532009-04-09T13:50:00.000-07:002009-04-09T13:50:00.000-07:00Chris (and others if interested) check this out: h...Chris (and others if interested) check this out: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2805059940327612897<BR/><BR/>You can skip the first 10 minutes or so, but from there through the 30 minute mark - look for dynamic self-assembling ways to achieve the targets you are looking for. Delanda describes two different "ways" for firms to be organized in a free market. One of those ways is highly amenable to your concept of capturing the value of innovation locally rather than exporting that value externally. <BR/><BR/>JJordan Greenhallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17390574567056047685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-17185196735519316702009-04-09T08:25:00.000-07:002009-04-09T08:25:00.000-07:00Another look at P/E ratios of the S&P 500 with...Another look at P/E ratios of the S&P 500 with earnings at $ 27 (march 2009):<BR/><BR/>S&P / 27 = P/E<BR/><BR/>850 / 27 = 31 (today)<BR/>666 / 27 = 24 (early march)<BR/><BR/>The long term average P/E is 15. So, today the S&P 500 is still (very) overvalued. With P/E ratios still (far) above 20, the long term average of 15 calls for P/E ratios in the (low) single digits, (e.g. 3 or 7) before one can declare the bottom has been reached.<BR/><BR/>P/E * today´s earnings = S&P 500<BR/><BR/>7 * 27 = 189<BR/>3 * 27 = 61Willy2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-44446050381778583982009-04-09T07:32:00.000-07:002009-04-09T07:32:00.000-07:00There is no such thing as a free market. The inter...There is no such thing as a free market. The interventions by a government, such as trade laws, corporation filing rules, patent and copyright laws, licensure, certifications, board examinations all establish ground rules for the so-called free market. It has been slanted in favor of the monopoly-financial capitalistic economy, instead of the manufacturing-real capitalistic economy, which is now below 17% of GDP.<BR/><BR/>Also Chris, I did not make up the Royal Scam facts. This is what has been laid out already by Geithner, Summers and ageed to by Obama. All I did was put all the pieces together.jerryhttp://eye-on-washington.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-58813625039562301052009-04-09T07:31:00.000-07:002009-04-09T07:31:00.000-07:00Iconoclast,I don't believe a 'massive government i...Iconoclast,<BR/><BR/>I don't believe a 'massive government intervention' is right. The free market can exist if a few strategic outputs are protected. This isn't a revision of all trade, rather it's selective rights to the production of a nation's key innovations.<BR/><BR/>Much of what you ask is how. Unfortunately, the plan and the state reviewing it, are things I cannot share. What good would a plan in the hands of the public be? Consider the effort required to review a plan amidst an influx of phonecalls. For now, those remain hidden from the public eye. They will come out soon enough.<BR/><BR/>Too many people see the trade deficits in developed nations and surpluses in developing nations thinking "yep, the money's movin and hmmm... we're accumulating debt." They need to think deeper. <BR/><BR/>What really goes into an iPod?<BR/>IP rights (past labor)<BR/>Raw goods harvesting (labor)<BR/>Shipment of goods (labor)<BR/>Manufacturing (labor)<BR/>More shipping (labor)<BR/>Retail (labor)<BR/>etc, all supported by similar labor cycles in other industries.<BR/><BR/>When people look at money moving, they need to remember it's jobs they are really looking at. We are buying and selling employment. The products, like the money, are just a means to accomplish the trade. So a deficit balance isn't shifting of money, it's employment imbalance. It's outsourcing.<BR/><BR/>This brings me back to my prior point. There needs to be movement back on the continuum. We need to redirect those jobs back into the system.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-1164131695160383822009-04-08T23:32:00.000-07:002009-04-08T23:32:00.000-07:00Chris,Let's leave aside the merits of your theory ...Chris,<BR/><BR/>Let's leave aside the merits of your theory for a second. I am not saying it is the right or the wrong way to go about solving the "crisis". What I am saying is that massive government intervention is exactly the opposite of free markets. In a true free market there is zero gov intervention. Under what possible definition is massive government intervention considered an essential element of free markets? Likewise, exactly who do you think is going to make sovereign governments adhere to another government's claim to the rights of sole ownership of an essential or important resource? Some world court? You would need a serious authoritarian NWO for that. You are calling for international, government protected "monopolies" which would destroy the mechanics of free markets. Also, sorry but I am going to have to call "B.S." on some state strongly considering your plan without some serious proof. I do appreciate your contributions to the discussion but you seem confused about some very basic economic elements. However, I could certainly be massively mistaken myself.<BR/><BR/>-IconoclastAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-58075230622807818232009-04-08T22:24:00.000-07:002009-04-08T22:24:00.000-07:00Brilliant... ha! It's sugar coated arsenic. Best...Brilliant... ha! It's sugar coated arsenic. Best take two, won't want to wake after the impact of what you've presented.<BR/><BR/>I hope you're wrong. I don't think I'm ready to see such brutality from a nation of such noble roots. Still, I can find no fault in what you present.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-29417081690622622212009-04-08T21:47:00.000-07:002009-04-08T21:47:00.000-07:00I think I have figured out the entire Royal Scam. ...I think I have figured out the entire Royal Scam. I believe I have pieced together how the banks will be getting the toxic debt off their balance sheets the way Geithner envisioned it. It is a beautifully designed Royal Scam. Now, if only the media were to see it and bust it open for all to see. You can't help but say brilliant.jerryhttp://eye-on-washington.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-40490952053697306682009-04-08T21:17:00.000-07:002009-04-08T21:17:00.000-07:00I just presented my economic theories to the Queen...I just presented my economic theories to the Queen of England and the Pope and they are seriously considering recommending my plan to Willie Wonka and the Munchkins from the Wizard of Oz for further analysis. <BR/><BR/>If this goes well, we might all be buying products with kisses and hugs soon folks. Stay tuned!MogwaiHunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10086098893367910013noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-91293778381453987522009-04-08T19:55:00.000-07:002009-04-08T19:55:00.000-07:00Some news... a US state has viewed my economic pri...Some news... a US state has viewed my economic principle and expressed intent to have it reviewed by a second advisor and/or the governor. If it appears solid, they will request the Whitehouse consider it as a means of economic correction.<BR/><BR/>In addition, CHBC News will have a feature spot where the principle is discussed. The two main points in the story are:<BR/><BR/>1. Economic theory needs to account for outsourcing as a GDP export along a continuum. If you lose raw materials harvesting, then manufacturing, then management, then skills labor, then upper management, at some point there isn't enough GDP remaining to power the economy. Nations must affect current jobs for the working class, not by creating short-term employment, but by capturing rights to production on local soil. Retraction along the continuum is necessary.<BR/><BR/>2. Nations must cooperate to realize strategic advantages and support IP rights of partner nations if they are to retain first world lifestyles. In the absence of strategic advantage, low price wins and economic reset is forced.<BR/><BR/>I presented to a university today; there was consensus that the element of free market mechanics I present is missing from free market economic theory, and that it has the potential to be highly influential. I also presented to a college and was advised they would review the proposed principle in more depth.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-4036689210107304542009-04-08T14:01:00.000-07:002009-04-08T14:01:00.000-07:00You raise a good point. It involves a significant...You raise a good point. It involves a significant amount of intervention with respect to ownership of production rights. <BR/><BR/>When free market was first developed, there was no risk of offshore production and whatnot. What we had before outsourcing was still free market enterprise. With globalization, working class benefits all occur of foreign soil. An economy can't power itself on the innovation alone; it needs revenue from it.<BR/><BR/>Developed on US soil, an innovation that resulted in an economic boom in the years 1790-1950 provided the US GDP from:<BR/><BR/>Raw materials harvesting<BR/>Manufaturing<BR/>Management and skills services<BR/>Retail<BR/>Export<BR/><BR/>Today, that same innovation could be outsourced for full production. You'd have no working class injection to raise GDP. You get:<BR/><BR/>High level management income<BR/>Retail, now collapsing<BR/>Revenue from IP (if IP ownership doesn't shift)<BR/><BR/>It's insufficient to power an economy.<BR/><BR/>There was a day when the Swiss watch grew their economy, and when German engineering meant something for their economy too. Nobody else offered it. Remove exclusivity and the result is more competition, less income. In the absence of national competitive advantages, economic equalization is assured.<BR/><BR/>If I am wrong, show me how a system can maintain its strength when the wealth from innovation never reaches the working class. Movement on the outsourcing on the continuum is removing all that national income. Restore it, or equalize to be competitive.Ishkabibblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354278076105529660noreply@blogger.com