tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post8123234968067115298..comments2024-02-26T08:05:58.174-08:00Comments on ECONOMICROT: New Open forumRandyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09221346085089343469noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-50518296352603031672009-03-30T21:45:00.000-07:002009-03-30T21:45:00.000-07:00Anon 9:37It's an absolute undeniable fact that it'...Anon 9:37<BR/><BR/>It's an absolute undeniable fact that it's all going to come crashing down. The system is flawed, PERIOD.Justin_n_ILhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02364920951342189988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-42327858053688089622009-03-30T21:37:00.000-07:002009-03-30T21:37:00.000-07:00I'm getting a bit inured to the claims of imminent...I'm getting a bit inured to the claims of imminent: <BR/><BR/>1) hyperinflation<BR/>2) dollar collapse<BR/>3) gold sky rocketing<BR/>4) financial armageddon <BR/>5) social upheaval<BR/><BR/>either it actually happens soon...or those predicting it need to re access.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-53332982458159055142009-03-30T21:06:00.000-07:002009-03-30T21:06:00.000-07:00your blog is good good good......<B>your blog is good good good......</B>♥♥♥♥♥ Jennifer™® ♥♥♥♥♥https://www.blogger.com/profile/15369583052701337325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-68786904584304195142009-03-30T10:57:00.000-07:002009-03-30T10:57:00.000-07:00This is an interesting graph as well.<A HREF="http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartetng" REL="nofollow">This</A> is an interesting graph as well.Stefannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-57714638080592223862009-03-30T06:43:00.000-07:002009-03-30T06:43:00.000-07:00Brad Setser looks here at the TIC data from januar...Brad Setser looks <A HREF="http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/16/todays-tic-data/" REL="nofollow">here</A> at the TIC data from january of this year. And the message which emerges isn't pretty.<BR/><BR/>Already in june 2008 foreign creditors started to sell bonds of the GSEs (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac).<BR/>Already in the 1960s (during the Vietnam war) the US started to run budget- and trade deficits. (Yes, wars are extremely expensive) Only thanks to foreigners who were willing to invest their money in the US for over 45 years the US was able to mitigate the balance of payments drain according to <A HREF="http://www.counterpunch.org/schaefer03252004.html" REL="nofollow">this article</A>.(read the entire article). So, in order to stay afloat the US has relied on the inflow of money from drugtraffickers, crooks and criminals.Willy2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-51418299163262407912009-03-30T03:33:00.000-07:002009-03-30T03:33:00.000-07:00Speaking only for myself Angus, the informed among...Speaking only for myself Angus, the informed among us know the problem is homegrown and will resist any attempt to scapegoat or 'wag the dog' this issue. As many honest money commentators have noted, the only true way out of this mess was to take our medicine and build a legitimate system from the rubble. That message hasn't changed, but your fears may be well founded seeing how the powers are dealing.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-21922091665673133132009-03-29T12:19:00.000-07:002009-03-29T12:19:00.000-07:00nice blog.nice blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-15466912175194972532009-03-29T09:10:00.000-07:002009-03-29T09:10:00.000-07:00The financial pattern stimulus will play is clear...The financial pattern stimulus will play is clear... faith will fail and the dollar will crumble. But I think fear of a failing dollar isn't the biggest worry. I'm concerned about how the US will respond on a military level. As a nation with the power to destroy the entire globe several times over, will the 'leaders' within attempt a show of force to save it?<BR/><BR/>I look back to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, fearful of how Americans will respond when basic needs are challenged. For a moment, look at Maslow as a representation of a government, or group of people. A lack of fiscal responsibility is eliminating esteem or self-actualization layers (morality, problem solving, acceptance of facts, confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others). Joblessness is shredding the safety level, as is the reduced international faith and demand for USD. <BR/><BR/>If the model proven for individuals holds true for the aggregate, our liberty is at risk. The pyramid crumbles in movement toward chaos, taking with it the options for American people. In chaos, brute force is the usual means of management. So I ask, faced with almost certain implosion of a flawed system, will the US government attempt tyranny to save themselves when all else has failed?Angusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-12058646758552922772009-03-28T20:02:00.000-07:002009-03-28T20:02:00.000-07:00In Las Vegas right now. I was shocked that there ...In Las Vegas right now. I was shocked that there is so many people here. Maybe it's the inflow of spring breakers that were going to Mexico, but ended up going to LV instead. From what I've noticed, the shops at Caesars doesn't seem really crowded--it's the streets and gambling areas that appear quite packed. Who knows...maybe this is the last hurrah before the breaking of the back of the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-50226546592420484112009-03-28T16:02:00.000-07:002009-03-28T16:02:00.000-07:00The opinion of Marc Faber.The opinion of <A HREF="http://www.investorazzi.com/2009/03/17/marc-faber-warns-of-us-bond-stock-market-disasters/" REL="nofollow">Marc Faber</A>.Willy2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-81176803869082160402009-03-27T16:24:00.000-07:002009-03-27T16:24:00.000-07:00Lyndon LaRouche Emergency Statement to the Preside...<A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6YvIjeltDQ" REL="nofollow">Lyndon LaRouche Emergency Statement to the President 27/03/2009</A><BR/><BR/>Change now or you'll take down the United States with you in short order! <BR/><BR/>Maybe Mr. Larouche should address the puppetmasters and not the puppet.Chethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13908928418299261817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-86087394715362564372009-03-27T15:21:00.000-07:002009-03-27T15:21:00.000-07:00NYSE Runs Out of Gold BarsMax Keiser on China’s th...<A HREF="http://seekingalpha.com/article/128150-nyse-runs-out-of-gold-bars-what-happens-next?source=feed" REL="nofollow">NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars</A><BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://karmabanqueradio.com/2009/03/27/max-keiser-on-chinas-threat-to-dump-dollar-aljazeera-english-inside-story/" REL="nofollow">Max Keiser on China’s threat to dump dollar - Aljazeera English</A>Chethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13908928418299261817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-27850989291093198172009-03-24T08:07:00.000-07:002009-03-24T08:07:00.000-07:00I think one key concern is the two renewal surges ...I think one key concern is the two renewal surges due on sub-prime morgages this year. We've seen what happened with the first, and I don't see any of the current stimulus package making those any more desireable. Sure, they aren't a base cause, but they're hidden damage just waiting to be exposed. And they'll have aftershocks.<BR/><BR/>As more 'stimulus' is added, faith in the US dollar abroad will continue to weaken. I expect the banks will fund another narrow escape when the next sub-primes come due, but by the time we're due for the third, there will be more currency diversification abroad and the financial markets will be tumbling due to excess supply of USD. Organizations and governments will more aggressively secure safer assets... at least while US currency is still accepted abroad. But a tipping point will be reached, where the desire to sell US dollars is greater than the desire to have them, and we'll hit freefall. What good is fiat money without faith? A stimulus package printed in uncashable funds? <BR/><BR/>The good news is that OPEC is already looking at a basket of funds, or an alternate base currency. If they switch, we won't have to worry about a freefall hitting during a sub-prime morgage collapse. We'll already be enjoying the ride down.<BR/><BR/>Stimulus is coming in great abundance! Enjoy, and spend yours now. Buy necessities, and a good foreign parachute.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-38843168527743746842009-03-24T08:05:00.000-07:002009-03-24T08:05:00.000-07:00To spend money on building aircrafts who end up he...To spend money on building aircrafts who end up <A HREF="http://depositfiles.com/files/nq42pb3tq" REL="nofollow">here</A> is the ultimate waste of taxpayers money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-29947071448569780922009-03-23T06:34:00.000-07:002009-03-23T06:34:00.000-07:00Although this graph suggests there will be no cras...Although <A HREF="http://depositfiles.com/files/bjivlfqr8" REL="nofollow">this graph</A> suggests there will be no crash in the stockmarket anymore, one shouldn't rule it out either.<BR/><A HREF="http://market-ticker.org/" REL="nofollow">Tickerguy</A> thinks there will be a (major) bankingcrisis in the fall of this year.<BR/>He and Marc Faber think there will/could be a crash in the US long bond (30 year) later this year. And both events could be accompanied by a stockmarket crash.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/" REL="nofollow">Here</A> one can find comments on the US TIC data. The TIC report looks at flow of money into and out of the US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-43936670223412964702009-03-23T01:29:00.000-07:002009-03-23T01:29:00.000-07:00A video called "The mismanagement of America Inc."...A video called "The mismanagement of America Inc.". Duration 27 minutes, dated june (??) 2008. Click <A HREF="http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=TW&hl=zh-TW&v=kwQWGNWzlGM" REL="nofollow">here</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-72860722760033539422009-03-21T17:20:00.000-07:002009-03-21T17:20:00.000-07:00Looks like there's a clarion call for resistance!h...Looks like there's a clarion call for resistance!<BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRper3L6xN8<BR/><BR/>PCAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-56295523601746491452009-03-21T04:06:00.000-07:002009-03-21T04:06:00.000-07:00I would happily concede a large chunk of wasteful ...I would happily concede a large chunk of wasteful DoD spending, as long as the left was willing to give up a lot of their Big Government wet dream as well. There has to be a realignment of priorities and the only true starting point is the Constitution. Turning the Fed into a giant arm of ACORN isn't sustainable either. Everyone, DoD included, has to break free of the entitlement mentality that has rotted us from the inside. Corporate welfare has to stop. Political patronage has to stop. Term limits have to be preferable to the current fiefdoms. Why should the mouth breathing idiots of New Bedford MA (think <I>Gone Baby Gone</I>) have the right to inflict Barney Frank on the nation ad infinitum?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-90048119357248313112009-03-21T01:54:00.000-07:002009-03-21T01:54:00.000-07:00The US government can cut back on military spendin...The US government can cut back on military spending and reduce the budget deficit.<BR/><BR/>How utterly, totally and completely insane US military spending has become can be illustrated by the nuclear weapons. The US has still over 9.000 nuclear warheads but in spite of that the US has commissioned the development and the building of a new generation of <A HREF="http://www.commondreams.org:80/headlines07/0302-02.htm" REL="nofollow">hydrogen bombs</A>.<BR/><BR/>Two highly crtical pieces on military spending is <A HREF="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174884" REL="nofollow">How to sink America</A> and <A HREF="http://www.counterpunch.org/wheeler01272009.html" REL="nofollow">this article</A>.<BR/><BR/>How the new F22 and F35 combat aircraft seems to be total <A HREF="http://www.counterpunch.org/sprey09092008.html" REL="nofollow">disaster</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-64040514127843722592009-03-20T13:19:00.000-07:002009-03-20T13:19:00.000-07:00Excellent piece from Nyquist this week."Life in co...Excellent piece from Nyquist this week.<BR/><BR/>"Life in consumer society has been about self-gratification. The most important questions have hedonistic assumptions built-in. Such are not questions at all. They are ready-made answers; false answers, in fact. The ancient formula for happiness was self-knowledge, not self-gratification. For self-knowledge is the hardest school of all, involving many painful realizations."<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0320.html" REL="nofollow">Creative Visualization 101</A>Justin_n_ILhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02364920951342189988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-34113091864750848802009-03-20T12:25:00.000-07:002009-03-20T12:25:00.000-07:00Well, I don't know what happened to my recent post...Well, I don't know what happened to my recent post about the Yahoo article "D.C. to America: You Can't Handle the Truth". So I'll try again. There is another very article that just been posted about "New Deficit Estimate Worse than Expected". Just those two articles plus the recent Obama sudden realization that military veterans shouldn't pay for their care of Service Connected Conditions or Injuries is enough to be the March thingie. Even the news clips have shown the administration saying that people are more concerned with what is happening to them, their jobs and homes rather than the overall details. I think the Obama people are in for a big shock. Too bad we are too. BettyJaneAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-5722750142836363472009-03-20T01:36:00.000-07:002009-03-20T01:36:00.000-07:00For those who haven't learnt any german in sch...For those who haven't learnt any german in school ;) the uploaded file on a possible development of the S&P 500(see my comment above) can be downloaded <A HREF="http://depositfiles.com/files/xdjzprsw9" REL="nofollow">here</A> as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-74252645292808477762009-03-20T01:18:00.000-07:002009-03-20T01:18:00.000-07:00Randy,I DO NOT expect the S&P 500 to rise abov...Randy,<BR/><BR/>I DO NOT expect the S&P 500 to rise above the red line again. (See the graph in my comment above). One can expect a lot but predicting what the precise path will be in the future is EXTREMELY difficult. But the overall direction of where we're heading is - IMO - crystal clear.<BR/><BR/>A friend brought today to my attention two very disturbing graphs. These are charts from two bond ETFs. An <A HREF="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LQD&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=" REL="nofollow">Investment Grade ETF</A> and a <A HREF="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HYG&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=" REL="nofollow">Junk Bonds ETF</A>. And that is going to be the next disaster: Bonds (Both corporate and T-bonds).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-1972807585885478722009-03-19T21:10:00.000-07:002009-03-19T21:10:00.000-07:00Steven,I've discussed and/or posted about it sever...Steven,<BR/><BR/>I've discussed and/or posted about it several times, but unsure of the specific post you are asking about - anyway Fed's pronouncement certainly IS big!<BR/><BR/>Iconoclast,<BR/>Yup - it's all sunshine and daisies from here on out. Thank God - I was beginning to worry Bernanke and the Boyz had lost control!<BR/><BR/>Anon 8:17,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your LV trip report. Yes, empty retail spaces dot the valley landscape and it's certain to get worse in the coming months/years.<BR/><BR/>Great charts Willy2 - Thanks<BR/><BR/>So what you are saying is: We'll likely see more gradual market declines (vs massive drops) until we eventualy bottom out somewhere in the dirt?<BR/><BR/>Regards to all and thanks for posting<BR/><BR/>RandyRandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09221346085089343469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20377909.post-68393997404151063562009-03-19T16:01:00.000-07:002009-03-19T16:01:00.000-07:00I took another look at this chart.I modified the g...I took another look at this <A HREF="http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif" REL="nofollow">chart</A>.<BR/><BR/>I modified the graph and stored it <A HREF="http://depositfiles.com/files/bjivlfqr8" REL="nofollow">here</A>.<BR/><BR/>By looking at the modified graph, this is what I see:<BR/>1. Although there was a crash (2008 & 1929) the overall movement of the stockmarket was down and followed the red line surprisingly accurate. I therefore expect no additional crashes.<BR/>2. The graph suggests there will be no major bearmarket rally anymore, as well. There was one in 1929 and 1930 because that crash came direct after the peak of the stockmarket.<BR/>3. We're already halfway the bearmarket and a little over 50% down. So, I think the bearmarket already will be over by september, oktober 2010. And the market will end at approx. 100 or 50 on the S&P 500 and 1500 to 1000 on the the DOW.<BR/><BR/>B.T.W. According to <A HREF="http://www.shadowstats.com/section/content-feed/commentaries" REL="nofollow">John Williams</A> unemployment in the US went up by close to 900,000 last month and unemployment is already at 19%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com