Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Breakdown

Markets tanked again today
- DOW closed down 236
- S&P 500 down 29
- NYSE down 144
- NASDAQ down 59



DOW


S&P 500



NYSE



Note: NASDAQ (below) is the only index listed here that hasn't busted through its earlier year low, but it's only a matter of time.



NASDAQ


Looking at the charts above, one would have to assume the Plunge Protection Team has a real problem on their hands. The last vestige of a propped up pillar of consumer/economic confidence is ready to tumble, and the breakdown is here.

Closing Note:

For those of you who don't know, the NASDAQ lost ~ 80% of its value between 2000-2002. Hitting a peak intraday of 5,132 reached on March 10, 2000 and an all-time low of 1,114 in October 2002. While not as bad, the S&P 500 lost ~ 50% during the same period and the DOW ~ 40%.

To combat the deflationary ills caused by collapsing equity markets, Alan Greenspan spawned a new inflationary cure -- The HOUSING BUBBLE.

Now, this new (BIGGER) bubble is popping and the contagion is spreading globally... Could this crisis spur a similar 80% meltdown in the S&P and/or DOW in the coming months/years ahead? Personally, I don't think it's out of the question...

Looking at it from a different (lighter) perspective: Even if we took the smaller 40% haircut (from the above "prior loss" examples) this time around, we'd still be looking at a DOW in the 8K range and an S&P index in the 900's.

Regardless, it looks like the markets are finally waking up to reality and the ultimate outcome does not bode well for our economy, our country, or our way of life.

Hold on to your hats, because life will soon become far more difficult for millions of Americans.

Best Regards

Randy






Theodore Roosevelt's ideas on immigrants and being an AMERICAN in 1907

Viewpoints certainly have changed over the years...



"In the first place, we should insist that if the immigrant who comes here in good faith becomes an American and assimilates himself to us, he shall be treated on an exact equality with everyone else, for it is an outrage to discriminate against any such man because of creed, or birthplace, or origin. But this is predicated upon the person's becoming in every facet an American, and nothing but an American...There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."

Theodore Roosevelt 1907

My Thoughts:

Political correctness and the inability to speak honestly has now bankrupted our souls and helped to decay our society... Whereas honesty and constructive criticism were used in years past to shape desired behavior, we are now overly sensitive and don't want to hurt anyone's special "feeelings"... NOW EVERYONE IS SPECIAL AND EQUAL!!!

Pathetic and weak we have become!

Monday, July 07, 2008

DOW: Below 11K this week?

Asian Stocks are falling hard as I pen this message, following today's US indexes lower on growing credit market concerns -- Fannie and Freddie the newest cause for alarm bells:

Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Plunge on Capital Concerns

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae fell to the lowest in 13 years in New York Stock Exchange composite trading as concerns grew the two largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies may need to raise more capital to overcome writedowns and satisfy new accounting rules.

Freddie Mac fell 18 percent and Fannie Mae dropped 16 percent after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. analysts said in a report today that an accounting change may force them to raise a combined $75 billion. Speculation that the companies may take further writedowns also weighed on the stock, said John Tierney, a credit strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.

``There's a lot of apprehension about writedowns,'' Tierney said. ``If they have writedowns, they have to raise capital. How much do they raise and how easily can they do that? Those are the questions that everybody is asking.''

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares plunge

One of the strongest warning signals came Monday, when shares of two of the nation's most important housing barometers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, plummeted. After falling remorselessly over the past month, in just one day Freddie Mac tumbled nearly 18 percent, and Fannie Mae lost 16 percent.

Stock prices of both companies — the nation's largest buyers of home mortgages, and traditionally the government's backstop for the housing economy — have each declined by more than 60 percent this year. Those falling prices, along with the rash of write-downs, declining stock prices and red ink at the nation's largest banks reflect a growing conviction among investors that the current housing slump will last longer, and prove more severe, than initially feared.

As a result, investors are signaling that they are far from convinced that any enterprise — even one with the strongest backing — can successfully navigate these choppy waters, and that those who do persist will pay dearly to survive.

"Everything points to a lot more bad news to come," said Paul Miller of the Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group in Arlington, Virginia "If Fannie and Freddie are vulnerable, it means no one is absolutely safe."

Currently, futures for DOW, NASDAQ and S&P are all pointing lower for tommorow's opening. In addition, the following data products will be released tomorrow:

- International Council of Shopping Center Store Sales
- Pending Home Sales
- Wholesale Inventories
- Consumer Credit

Later this week: other data to be released:

- Jobless claims
- Import/export Prices
- Trade Balance
- Treasury Report
- Consumer Sentiment

Bottom Line: Economic reality is finally sinking in and I expect the DOW to fall/close below the psychological threshold of 11,000 THIS WEEK! Though not true chart resistance, it will be a big deal in the financial media.


Regards


Randy

Coming soon to a neighborhood near you?

Video: Right to Bear Arms

After Hurricane Katrina the local government began confiscating firearms...

Video from Glenn Beck on Headline News, July 3, 2008

My thoughts: As a prior US military, law abiding, CCW holding, red-blooded American, I absolutely cherish my 2nd amendment right to keep and bear arms, and I positively refuse to be an easy victim for some loony on a rampage -- so I always have my Glock G30 by my side... Hope I never have to use it, but if needed, it's there.

However, based on the examples illustrated in the Post-Katrina video below, one would now have to assume that, in any nationwide emergency (economic collapse or otherwise), the powers that be would want to confiscate it -- when I need it most...

What are your thoughts? Would you freely give up your 2nd amendment right due to some emergency clause/edict?



Randy

The Great Panic of 2008

100 Years Later: The more things don't change, the more they stay the same.


Sunday, July 06, 2008

Peter Schiff: $5000.00 Gold By 2012 - Dollar Never Recovers - Game Over

Though a bit dated (mid May 08) Peter Schiff states that gold will see $2,000 in 2009 and likely $5,000 by 2012. (Ironic Note: I predicted the same target range back in my Jan 08 post -- Gold: how high?)

Additionally, Peter says silver will probably do better than gold and that the US dollar will NEVER recover.

Bloomberg: Hyperinflationary Depression

Tyche Group Senior Manager Martin Hennecke discussing his expectation for a hyperinflationary Depression in both the US and Europe.

U.S. CONSUMERS CUT BACK ON SPENDING

Strong evidence is emerging that consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the US economy, has begun to slow sharply at every level -- from the working class to the wealthy.

The abrupt pullback raises the possibility that the country may be experiencing a rare decline in personal consumption, not just a slower rate of growth. Such a decline would be the first since 1991, and it would almost certainly push the entire economy into an "officially declared" recession -- in the midst of an election year.

Weekend Economic Funnies






























Saturday, July 05, 2008

Las Vegas: All flash and no cash


It's very popular to look/act the part here in flashy Las Vegas.

The cheap-money driven economic boon, which lasted through 2006, allowed the local masses to drive the best of new cars, wear fancy designer clothes, dine at trendy/expensive restaraunts and/or hang out at any one of the myriad of overpriced nightclubs here in town -- requiring a $20+ dollar cover charge (after a > 1 hour wait) and $8+ dollar drinks, just for the privilege of looking/acting like "you are someone" while hanging out with the "in" crowd.



Personally, though in the top 10% income bracket myself (just a point of reference -- not to boast), I'm too damned frugal (ok -- and too old) to really worry about these things, but I often laughed beneath my breath as I watched these eager masses of "trendy" folks fighting for their "perceived" status of "Got Bank" -- as I knew it was all a facade, wouldn't last, and the bills would one day come due.

When discussing the issue with friends, we would jokingly refer to the trend as "all flash and no cash".

Looks like we were right, as the party bills are now coming due and the years of "flash" now require some overdue "cash".


MensHealth ranks Las Vegas as top U.S. city for personal debt

If the number of foreclosures and bankruptcy filings didn't tell you Nevada's consumers stand on shaky financial ground, perhaps a new study will convince you of the fiscal peril visiting a legion of locals.

Web site MensHealth.com has named Las Vegas America's top city for the amount of personal debt -- credit card balances, auto loans, home loans and other consumer financing -- its residents carry. And those considerable obligations could worsen an already stagnant local economy, experts say.

Editors from MensHealth.com didn't comment for this story by press time. But a summary of criteria they used to develop their roster listed statistics including foreclosure rates, housing prices, bankruptcy filings, credit scores, levels of credit debt and credit usage.

Las Vegas or Nevada dominate at least a few of those indicators.

The state has spent most of the last year as No. 1 in the nation in foreclosures, according to Irvine, Calif., real estate research firm RealtyTrac. Las Vegas landed among the markets experiencing the biggest slides in housing prices -- 20.2 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors -- and the state frequents the top 10 list in number of bankruptcies. And a recent TransUnion study found the Silver State has a higher percentage of consumers delinquent on credit card payments than any other state.

The West dominated MensHealth.com's list of worst cities for debt, with seven of the top 10 falling within or west of the Rockies.

Billings, Mont., posted the lowest load of personal debt.

Trends among local consumer agencies testify to growing debt loads in Southern Nevada.

Michele Johnson, president and chief executive officer of Consumer Credit Counseling Service in Las Vegas, said the nonprofit's client base jumped 70 percent this spring compared with a year ago. The stories she hears from the group's newest clients revolve mostly around housing, with interest-only and option adjustable-rate mortgages squeezing homeowners who can't afford rising borrowing costs.

"I've never seen it this bad. Never," said Johnson, who's worked for the service since 1982.

Reasons for high debt in Las Vegas stump experts. But Johnson speculated the influx of residents and high cost of living play roles.

"A lot of folks move here knowing that jobs are very plentiful, so they uproot themselves, move here with minimal assets and find the cost of living is much higher than they anticipated," Johnson suggested. "Insurance and day-care costs are very high, and though jobs are plentiful, they're not necessarily well-paying."

The result: Consumers fall back on credit cards to supplement income and meet monthly expenses.

Throw in exotic mortgages, which tens of thousands of local consumers took out from 2005 to 2007 to buy homes, and the problem compounds, Johnson said. As interest rates adjusted upward, housing payments ate into earnings and forced expenses ranging from food to utility bills onto plastic.

Snowballing debt, in turn, makes it tougher for consumers to respond to economic contraction.

"Consumers (with substantial obligations) just don't have the flexibility to spend, and any hit to their income becomes magnified through the burden of keeping current on their debt," said Joel Naroff, an economist and president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa. Markets experiencing economic downturns would suffer even more if residents carry big debts, he added.

Rising debt also hurts economies because it leaves consumers with less discretionary cash. The drop in spending on nonessentials hits big-ticket items hardest, with buyers picking up fewer cars, appliances, televisions and other high-dollar goods, Naroff said. Smaller operations, including restaurants and local retailers, suffer as well.

"A lot of people used their homes, especially if they got a year or two of price increases, to get home equity lines of credit and loans, and those loans became an important source of income," Naroff said. "Those (equity) funds purchased a lot of goods."

It's not the first time consumers overextended themselves en masse, Naroff said, and he expects the historic cycles to repeat themselves. That means indebted consumers will retrench in the next two to three years, cutting back on credit and improving their balance sheets.

But Naroff noted one key difference this time around that could lengthen recovery time. Unlike previous eras, big mortgages anchor today's heavy debt loads, and those heavy obligations mean "it's really going to take a while to get things back together again," Naroff said.

"It's going to spread at least through next year," he said. "How much farther is hard to know. Part of it will depend on how the economy bounces back."


Bottom line:

The Las Vegas housing market has tanked, credit markets have dried up, tourism is falling, gaming revenue is down, inflation is raging, and the bills are now coming due.

Certainly things are looking bad for Vegas now, but just wait to see what happens when the casino layoffs begin in earnest and the unemployment lines grow... We ain't seen nothing yet!



Regards

Randy

Friday, July 04, 2008

Peter Schiff, 1 June 08, Squawk Box

Click "Play" twice to load.







DOW: Next Downside Support @ 10,700

I've been warning my readers (i.e. Look out below!) that US economic reality will finally start catching up to the markets (our last pillar of public confidence) and we saw the first example this week -- as the DOW sliced through its strong downside support at 11,700-11,600.

The next downside support level is 10,700 (see chart) last seen in July 2006. Will we fall that far?

My thoughts: Almost a certainty! I think we may even see the 9,000 range later this year!

Bloomberg: Dow Average's Drop Into Bear Market May Signal Losses

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's 21 percent retreat from a record may foreshadow more losses for the 112-year-old stock gauge, based on its performance in previous bear markets.

``I don't expect this to be the end,'' said Dean Gulis, part of a group that manages about $3 billion in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, for Loomis Sayles & Co. ``Stocks have been trending down now for basically a year. They're going to keep struggling for a while.''

The Dow slipped into a bear market for the 12th time since 1962 yesterday

The longest profit slump in six years and the first nationwide decrease in home prices since the Great Depression pushed U.S. equities to a nine-month tumble.
General Motors plunged 74 percent in the past nine months for the Dow's biggest decline as crude oil's 79 percent surge to $143.74 a barrel hurt sales of pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.

GM fell to $9.98 yesterday, the lowest price since 1954, according to Global Financial Data, based in Los Angeles. The Detroit-based company, battered by the slowest U.S. automotive market in 15 years, faces the possibility of bankruptcy and may need to raise as much as $15 billion, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst John Murphy.

Citigroup Inc., American International Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. each tumbled more than 50 percent as losses and writedowns at the world's biggest financial institutions topped $400 billion following the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

Earnings at financial firms and consumer companies reliant on Americans' discretionary income slumped 56.5 percent and 19.9 percent, respectively.



Bottom Line: The downward slide ain't over yet!

All the best

Randy

Thursday, July 03, 2008

My Blog has been Unlocked!

I pleaded my case on a blogger helpline last night and apparently my issue made it to someone who could do something about it -- the help arrived this AM. Thank God... I was beginning to think my blog would be completely deleted and hundreds of posts lost forever.

Anyway, I wasn't expecting this good news today, so wasn't prepared with anything to say.

With that, how about that ECB rate hike today, followed by a strong dollar rally, equities rally and a gold take-down. Hmmm? Certainly seems like a planned event.

Much going on in the world:

- DOW in a bear market (worst June since the Great Depression)

- GM potential bankruptcy (I warned back in 2006: Here & Here)

- Iran in the Crosshairs (Coming Catastrophe

- New Oil Records

- US Dollar on the Edge

- Banking System Meltdown looming

Bottom line: For the enlightened few who have been following along, this bad news was totally expected and most of you understand that these issues of late are merely the opening salvo --with much worse to follow. For the remainder of the sheeple, they still don't get it and (unless they open their eyes and pay attention) probably never will.

Best regards and I'm delighted to be back!

Randy