Dollar: Faltering Foundation of US Economic Strength

I wrote this article back in Jan of 2008 in an attempt to shed light on the past history and likely future of the US Dollar as the World's reserve... Bottom line, dollar hegemony will eventually end and when this happens our standard of living will fall precipitously.

Since the end of World War II, the central foundation of US Economic Strength has rested on the US Dollar. Many of our strategic plans, geopolitical strategies, past and future wars--the entire global chess board if you will, has been played out by trying to maintain our undisputed economic power, based primarily through ownership of the World’s Reserve Currency.

SOME HISTORY ON THE DOLLAR

Throughout the history of the world, there have always been strong currencies, usually held by the economic powerhouses of the day. Theses currencies were primarily called Reserve Currencies. The Pound Sterling was the primary reserve currency for much of the world in the 18th and 19th centuries. But perpetual account and fiscal deficits, financed by cheap credit and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies used to finance wars and colonial ambitions eventually led to the pound sinking (sound familiar?).

Post World-War II, the US dollar took over the sterling’s dominant position and became the world’s newest reserve currency. The Bretton Woods Accord, the first major economic transformation toward the end of World War II, established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a way to value the various currencies of the world relative to each other. All foreign currencies would trade in relationship to the US Dollar and only the US dollar (as the reserve currency) would be tied to a gold standard (meaning the value of dollars circulating must be backed by gold reserves).

The gold standard caused major problems in the 1960’s when France (under the London Gold Pool) called America’s bluff and demanded gold for payment of debt, rather than US dollars (they understood that we were printing more money, to finance the Vietnam conflict and fund new social programs, than we had available in gold reserves).

Due to the rapid loss of US gold reserves, President Nixon had no choice but to abolish the Bretton Woods accord in August of 1971 and he took the US dollar off the gold standard (it was $35 per ounce then; today it is ~ $900).

This Nixon shock of August 1971 caused a swift devaluation of the US dollar (gold doubled in price by 1972) and numerous efforts followed (by U.S. leadership) to develop a new system of international monetary management. They felt they must find another way, as currencies around the world were in turmoil and were now floating among one another…

The year 1974 provided the much needed answer. In June of 1974, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger established the US-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation. One of the major components of this commission stated that OPEC would officially agree to sell its oil only for dollars—meaning any country purchasing oil from OPEC had to pay in U.S. dollars. This agreement enormously increased the demand for the floating dollar, as oil importing countries now had to earn or borrow dollars to pay for their oil.

OPEC oil countries were soon overflowing with petrodollars and most of them ended up recycled through accounts in London and New York banks.

Bottom Line: this 1974 act reestablished the dollar as the global monetary instrument and oil now replaced gold as basis for a strong dollar. Countries competed for dollars and they accumulated huge dollar reserves to sustain their own currencies.

Please allow me to shift gears a bit—we’ll get back to the dollar in a moment:
Post WWII, the US was the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, as our continent was unscathed by the ravages of war and the military industrial machine was running at maximum efficiency.

That however has changed over time, as thousands of corporations succumbed to the pressures of improving their bottom lines. Entire sectors were outsourced: U.S. Manufacturing, Steel, Technical services, Administrative call centers, Research & Technology and numerous others are now gone. Heck, you can’t even find a pair of Levis (the American Trademark) made in the good ole USA anymore.

Why did this happen? It’s all related to profits… A U.S. company can pay a worker overseas $1-2 bucks an hour to do the same job requiring $15-30 hour in the US... Either they outsource or they end up like the rest of our troubled U.S. home bound corporations (below).

Many of the home-bound US companies still trying to compete in the Global marketplace are reeling from high labor costs, pension plans, union benefits, health care costs and the like. Delphi, General Motors and Ford are prime examples of the growing trend of companies feeling the pressures. I expect to see more US corporate and worker problems in the future…

Outsourcing however did have its benefits. For many years we Americans were able to export inflation through the import of cheap manufactured goods and recycled dollars. Foreign manufacturing allowed Americans to purchase many things that otherwise they could have never afforded had they been made in the USA (e.g. $20 Jeans, $29 DVD players, $50 Microwave ovens, $60 cell phones, $100 TV’s; $200 computers, the list goes on and on). Our standard of living rose, but we eventually became a service-based economy dependant upon 1) selling each other foreign made goods and 2) foreigners recycling their excess dollars back to the US.

This foreign recycling of dollars provided Americans with low interest rates, plenty of available credit and it allowed us to live far beyond our means through cheap debt.

On the negative side, foreign governments built up huge dollar denominated holdings that they could use to secure long-term energy agreements, purchase Global assets/corporations, etc and these massive holdings realistically (it will never be admitted) tied our hands geo-politically, as foreign governments could now threaten to dump dollars into the world market as retribution for disliked policy.

Back to the dollar:

Once removed from the gold standard in 1971, the US dollar became a fiat currency (tied to nothing tangible and it was backed only by the word of the US government). The Fed Reserve Banking System could now print money at will -- and they did. Take a look at the chart below and the growth in M3 money supply since 1971. This chart ends in 2006, but (in case your wondering) today’s figure is ~ $12.5 Trillion.




As the world’s reserve currency, the US has been able to, year after year, import goods from the rest of the world (for consumption) and pay for it with dollars that were created from nothing. These dollars are then used by foreign central banks to purchase US assets (corporations, land, properties, etc) or debt instruments from the Fed, or they amass these excess dollars to keep inflation tame within their borders, as many have their own currencies pegged to the exchange rate of the US Dollar.

It is currently estimated that foreign governments (OPEC Nations, China, Japan, India, Great Britain, Korea, Russia, etc) have amassed ~ $4 Trillion of US dollar holdings. China alone is sitting on ~ $1 Trillion (Pretty scary stuff).

Over the last several years, foreign Central banks have started to become leery with the huge debt levels, massive trade deficits and unsustainable fiscal policy of the US and they are quietly working to diversify their dollar holdings.

Additionally, for decades now, many foreign countries have pegged their currencies to the US Dollar, but recent inflation increases, internal to their domestic economies, has become far too severe for them to handle (with the dollar peg, they have to print money as fast as we do, and it is stoking domestic inflation), therefore several countries have started a new trend of depegging. Recently, Vietnam, Qatar and Kuwait have all depegged while a host of others (Russia, and other OPEC Nations) are questioning whether or not they should do the same… When this currency de-peg happens on a larger scale (not if, but when) inflation within our borders will SCREAM. Why? Well, as they de-link from the dollar, their currencies become stronger causing our import costs to increase commensurately (e.g. Oil, consumer goods, etc)

Lastly, governments such as IRAN no longer want to accept dollars for oil. This was also the case with IRAQ back in Saddam Hussein’s day, but we all know what happened there. Anyway, the point is: There is wide-scale pressure afloat to price oil in currencies other than the depreciating US Dollar. If that happens on a larger scale, the artificial foundation for the World’s Reserve currency will be removed and all hell could break loose.

Bernanke: Rather than try to shore up foreign confidence in the dollar, Helicopter Ben Bernanke has made matters worse by officially sacrificing the dollar to save our faltering, sub-prime like, US banking/financial systems… By lowering rates at a time when the dollar is already at its weakest point in history, there is no other explanation to his actions.

Bottom line: Demand for the World’s Reserve Currency (dollar) has been kept artificially high for many years through oil pricing agreements and US inflation was held in check by importing cheaper goods. These were both net benefits for the US in times past, but are quickly moving towards being detriments.


Closing:

The US was once an economic powerhouse who earned the right to own/maintain the World’s Reserve currency, but we’ve squandered this luxury through massive debt loads, poor foreign policy decisions, excessive monetary printing, outsourcing our industrial base, making too many future promises and by living way beyond our means.

Foreign Governments are now growing tired of subsidizing our opulent lifestyles, and the recent fact that we put the world financial system in peril by offloading our toxic securitized garbage was (I believe) one of the final straws to break the dollar’s back. In another ~ 10 years, dollar hegemony will probably be a thing of the past. Our central foundation of US Economic Strength (dollar) is faltering and there is little we can do about it.

With that said, I think the Fed and our government officials are already aware of this and without any viable solutions to our current financial problems (baring raising interest rates and initiating a massive depression) they have made the best choice they can (cut rates and inflate).

I believe it has now become a matter of (unwritten) policy to try to hyper-inflate our financial system out of its current and future insolvency crisis. In their attempt to inflate, the world will experience significant dollar devaluations which will (over time) allow the United States to 1) eliminate much of its foreign debt and 2) pay for future (currently un-funded) obligations through devalued payouts.

As our standard of living drops more in-line with the rest of the world due to loss of purchasing power and a massive economic slowdown, it will (over time) become much cheaper to employ American workers again and this will slowly bring jobs back into our borders. Eventually, 20-30 years from now, our country will become competitive in the world again and we will do more than just sell each other cheaply made foreign goods--we will actually manufacture them again. BUT, we will (most likely) no longer own the World's Reserve Currency nor will we be the World's main economic power.

Ultimately, I believe massive currency devaluation and a much lower US standard of living is our country's only way out of this financial predicament...

The only wildcard I can think of is Oil. How in the world do we survive without cheap oil?
Guess we'll need to work out some new strategic plans and geopolitical strategies -- and I'll bet they lead to:

WAR!

Regards

Randy

Social Consequences of an economic meltdown?

Back in Jan 08, I pondered aloud several questions related to the potential Social Implications of (what was then) a looming economic crisis. Turns out, many readers were wondering the same and this was one of my highest traffic posts ever.

If you haven't already done so, read the info at the following link then come back to read the rest of this post.

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS of a SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN



Well, nine months have passed since those words were written and there can now be no doubt (1) that this crisis is one of the most significant economic downturns in history and (2) the Massive bailout package being worked is just a bandaid to slow the controlled financial implosion. Even John McCain realizes this and recently stated in his debate with Obama: "This is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning - if we come out with a package that will keep these institutions stable..

With that digested and the knowledge things are likely to get far worse, what can we anticipate for our future - just how bad could things get for the little guy living in the suburbs - trying to raise a family?

I'll refrain from trying to list all possible consequences, as there are far too many potential outcomes, but I would like to highlight several major consequences that could be initiated by a worst-case financial panic...

Note: I'm not trying to scare anyone here, but merely trying to create an awareness and food for thought - so that you can use the information to better prepare your family (in the event the worse-case scenario actually happens).

Let us hypothetically propose the economic crisis intensifies:

Hundreds more banks/financial institutions implode and the FDIC runs out of money - a nationwide run on the banks ensue; consumer credit has consistently gotten worse and available credit-card credit-lines have finally been turned off/reeled in - unemployment skyrockets due to the lack of new credit/spending; inflation rages as the dollar falls sharply; the economic crisis deepens and trillions in unpayable derivative contracts unwind quickly - stock markets collapse around the globe and the crushing pressure is exacerbated by foreign holders of US Debt who finally rush to the exit doors.

The Gvt panics and Stock Markets are closed indefinitely while ATM machines, banks and electronic commerce are shut down across the nation (as the government tries to figure out what to do). People grow anxious as their credit cards and debit cards don't work, and with no cash on hand, they can't buy food or gas... Those who do have cash rush to fill up their gas tanks and empty the shelves at their local grocery stores. The real economy comes to a screeching halt as deliveries of food, gas, etc can no longer make it to market.

Social unrest and general panic set in as our just-in-time economy breaks down. People are confused and scared while the government repetitively tries to reassure that they have everything under control. Hysteria eventually sets in as social chaos, looting, and roving gangs terrorize the masses (taking what they need from the unprepared). Similar situations take place across the nation as people who were on the fringes of society become hungry/desperate and/or take advantage of the lawless situation.

Martial law is ultimately declared and National Guard troops are deployed to major cities around the nation - to help restore order, distribute food, etc.

So many unknowns

Could this actually happen? I don't know - you be the judge; but it's probably better to be a prepared alarmist than an unprepared victim... Think about it.

If you've watched Paulson, Bernanke, Bush and the rest of our worried leaders over the last couple of week, you've probably been able to sense their state of alarm - Yes, they truly realize how big this crisis is...

What can you do to prepare?

I could list a thousand things here from generators, flashlights, etc, but the most important (I believe) are:

1) Have at LEAST a couple of weeks worth of non-perishable food/water on hand
2) Have enough cash on hand to make it through a possible electronic commerce shutdown
3) Maintain close relationships with friends/neighbors (help each other out)
4) If you have a gun, know how to use it - to protect your family, friends and valuable assets (cash/food).


Closing:

Yes folks this could be bad, but we Americans are an industrious/resolute bunch and (though it will take some time) we will find a way to pull out of it.

However, be aware: regardless of the ultimate significance of this downturn, America is likely to forever change as the US Dollar loses it's reserve currency status in the not too distant future.

At a MINIMUM, this economic crisis will cause our standard of living to fall and our cost of living to increase significantly.

Bottom Line:

Our future is uncertain, and we're definitely in for some difficult times ahead, but the world will NOT end - and we will survive.

Again, this post was no meant to scare, but to inform by thinking outside the mainstream box. Use this information as you may, but it's probably not a bad idea to prepare for whatever the outcome.

Best regards

Randy

Bailout or no bailout - what's the difference?

Many Americans are being brainwashed into believing that our economic woes can be resolved with the "saving grace" of a $700 Billion taxpayer bailout package - being crafted over the weekend.

Well folks, It just ain't going to happen that way...

This package (if approved) may slow the speed of our debt implosion, but the debt implosion train has already jumped the tracks and can not be stopped. A Massive Recession or Depression is well on its way.

If it's coming anyway (you ask), why not try to slow it down with the bailout?

Well, there are several very harmful side effects of passing this bailout - the most significant being: a falling US Dollar/inflation for every American household.

What do I mean?

Well, if passed, we will still experience the same (albeit slower) consequences of the debt implosion: unemployment figures will rise significantly and the value of our assets (homes, cars, boats, toys and other expensive gadgets) will tumble as people flood the market with these items to (1) get rid of the added household expense and (2)use the proceeds to help put gas in the car/food on the table.

The difference will be: If approved, we will experience a significant increase in the cost of living - simultaneously with debt implosion/falling asset values, etc...

Food, gas, clothing, imports, etc, will all skyrocket in price - significantly increasing the cost of maintaining a household.

Ultimately, this bailout will not be enough money and other bailouts will likely follow (due to this precedent) and the Massive Recession/Depression will turn Hyperinflationary in nature - Sticking it to the average Joe from both ends.

Closing:

I just finished watching the Presidential debates. In a nutshell: I wasn't too impressed with either of them, but one key comment stuck and resonated within my head throughout.

When questioned on the pending bailout package and the economic crisis, John McCain stated" "This is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning - if we come out with a package that will keep these institutions stable."

A keen realization that this package is just a bandaid - to slow the bloodletting, with the understanding that there will be much more bloodloss to come.


Hold on to your hats folks!


Randy

The Federal Reserve and the Stock Market Meltdown

To most Americans, the Federal Reserve is just another name on their dollar bill. They don't know that this secretive private bank controls America's entire economic system. The Federal Reserve is no more federal than Federal Express. Created with no constitutional authority in 1913, the Fed prints money out of thin air and loans it to the U.S. treasury at interest. This can only lead to one outcome: debt. Currently, the Federal Reserve is printing billions of dollars to bail out Wall Street while destroying the middle class and the dollar. If our country wants a sound and transparent monetary system, we need to abolish the Federal Reserve and bring the power back to the American people.

Dollar Collapse - America - It's Time To F_cking Panic

Peter Schiff on the Glenn Beck Show - Hyperinflation mixed with Depression

US Debt

Hat tip Jim-n-Max!

Since 2002, the national debt ceiling has been raised 6 times, as follows:

2002: Raised from $5950 billion to $6400 billion
2003: Increased again - from $6400 billion to $7384 billion
2005: Wasn't enough - increased to $8184 billion
2006: Raised from $8184 billion to $8965 billion
2007: Big one this time - from $8965 billion to $9815 billion
2008: July 08 housing Bailout package included provision for increase to $10,600 billion

Today (look at my debt clock) US debt stands at 9,794,281,325,636 dollars

The pending $700B bailout package will once again increase the ceiling - making it number 7 since 2002:

2008 Bailout Package Plan: Increase ceiling from $10,600 billion to ~ $11,300 billion

So, in other words, it took the US ~ 226 years for the US to reach the first $5,950 billion in debt, but it took only ~ 6 more years to double it. Again, we're talking about ELEVEN TRILLION, THREE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS - AN ENORMOUS FIGURE.

Note as food for thought, and an attempt to help you grasp the enormity of this figure: If we were to substitute seconds (a fleeting instant in time) for dollars, by the time 11.3 trillion seconds will have passed (from today) it would be the year 360,328 AD

So, where does it all end? Aside from a hyperinflationary event, this debt CAN NEVER BE PAID!

BTW: Rumor has it the Treasury is planning to install 3-phase 50HP motors this weekend - as the current printing press motors can no longer handle the strain of max print volume and 24/7 operations.

To take a qoute from Will Rogers: We are the first nation in the history of the world to go to the poor house in an automobile.

Closing:

After watching the Bush's Emergency Economic "Scared Shitless" briefing on TV tonight, I decided it's probably a good time to get some more silver, food, toilet paper and load up another 1000 rds of 45 ACP.

Lastly:

Depiction of typical wall streetr's eating at the US Gvt finance trough - equal opportunity anyway.




Regards

Randy

Freegold

FoFoa's well explained theoretical solution to our economic crisis: click link: Freegold

Charts to ponder

Dollar - Severely Overbought Condition

OIL - Severely Oversold Condition

Gold - Severely Oversold Condition

DOW - Slightly Oversold but look at recent PPO Downturn - Going Lower

Volatile Markets Ahead

Significant market volatility is likely next week as a result of the numerous economic releases that are due.

Looking at a chart of the DOW below, notice how it has spiked above its 50 Day Moving Average (50 DMA--blue line) ? Well, I think it'll fall below it once again -- starting a new leg down - once all the new economic news is digested.

DOW Daily

Due for release this week:

Monday 10:00 Existing Home Sales
Tuesday 10:00 Consumer Confidence
Tuesday 10:00 New Home Sales
Tuesday 14:00 FOMC Minutes
Wednesday 08:30 Durable Orders
Wednesday 10:35 Crude Inventories
Thursday 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel.
Thursday 08:30 GDP-Prel.
Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims
Friday 08:30 Personal Income
Friday 08:30 Personal Spending
Friday 09:45 Chicago PMI
Friday 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev.


Additionally, many analysts/investors feel the dollar's rally has been overdone and now expect Gold to start rebounding:

US Dollar Index

Bloomberg: Gold May Extend Rebound on Demand for Alternative to the Dollar

Gold may rise for a second straight week on speculation the dollar's rally against the euro will stall, boosting the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

Twenty-two of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Aug. 21 and Aug. 22 advised buying gold, which rose 5.2 percent last week to $833.50 an ounce in New York, the first gain in a month.

My thoughts:

In addition to the above, physical demand from India and Middle East countries is expected to rise in the coming months - potentially causing supply/demand issues and driving a sharp rise in prices. For the short-term however, gold will need to get/stay above $850 for a while before the next leg up.

GOLD

Regards

Randy

Unbelievable - Now US Mint suspends "Gold" Eagle coin sales

This is big folks! First Silver and now Gold... hmm, could TPTB be aware of something bad that may be about to happen in the world?

From APMX: News Alert - US Mint suspended sales of the 1 oz Gold American Eagles

We just received word, the US Mint has suspended sales of the 1 oz Gold American Eagles until further notice and are not accepting new orders from precious metals dealers. This is in addition to the shortage of 1 oz Silver American Eagles.

This comes at a time when many investors around the nation are scrambling to locate silver bullion and US gold coins while prices are attractively low. These low prices seem to be one of the driving factors in this recent shortage, as investor demand has dramatically increased.


From Reuters UK: Mint suspends red-hot Eagle gold coins

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A shortage of American Eagle bullion coins due to soaring demand following a recent sharp retreat in gold prices has forced the U.S. Mint to temporarily suspend sales of the popular coins.

"Due to the unprecedented demand for American Eagle gold one-ounce bullion coins, our inventories have been depleted. We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins," the U.S. Mint told authorized coin dealers in a memorandum dated on Friday.

Michael White, a U.S. Mint spokesman, said that only the one-ounce 22-karat American Eagle coins are sold out, but the half-ounce, quarter-ounce, and 1-10th ounce coins as well as the less popular 24-karat American Buffalo coins are still available.

"We are working diligently to build up our inventory and hope to resume sales shortly," the Mint said.

Coin dealers from the United States to Canada reported a surge in buying of bullion coins and other gold products since prices plummeted from highs last month. The buying spree contributed to supply fears and helped boost gold prices sharply on Thursday.

Rand LeShay, senior vice president of Los Angeles-based A-Mark Precious Metals, an authorized purchaser for the U.S. Mint, said that there was a big spike in demand for gold and silver coins and ingots after a recent price tumble.

He said that A-Mark currently has no one-ounce American Eagle gold coins for its customers.

"Until the U.S. Mint can supply us with more coins, we won't be able to supply any to our customers," LeShay said.

The move by the U.S. Mint to halt sales caught market participants by surprise as it came at a time when the metal was sharply falling, rather than rising.

In contrast, the Mint needed to allocate its Silver Eagle coins to dealers due to overwhelming demand as the price of silver soared earlier this year.

Produced from gold mined in the United States, the American Eagles have been novel items among collectors and investors since their introduction in 1986. Each coin has a face value of $50 but it is sold by authorized dealers at a premium to the price of gold.

COIN DEMAND SPIKES

Blanchard and Co., one of the largest U.S. retail dealers of rare coins and precious metals, said the American Eagle and American Buffalo one-ounce gold coins are sold out.

"Nobody has the Eagles or the Buffaloes right now. We bought 2,000 ounces late last week, and those were the last 2,000 ounces that we can find in the marketplace," said David Beahm, vice president of New Orleans-based Blanchard.

"If we don't have them, nobody has them," Beahm said. He added that he has been recommending customers to buy the one-ounce Canadian Gold Maple Leaf gold coin instead.

Jon Nadler, senior analyst at top Canadian dealer Kitco, said that the shortage of the Eagle coins could be due to a combination of high demand and a temporary lack of supply in coin blank, which is a flat metal disk used to mint coins.

On Thursday, spot gold surged as much as 3 percent to $839 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery scaled a one-week high at $845 an ounce. Gold hit a five-month peak of $987.75 on July 15, and it set an all-time record of $1,030.80 on March 17

In hindsight, A-Mark's LeShay said that neither the U.S. Mint nor the coin dealers could anticipate the coin shortage.

"This kind of spike in demand is something no one can foresee, and no business runs itself waiting for this to happen," LeShay said.

Shifting gears a bit for a closing comment:

This is certainly a supply/demand driven situation as people rush for real money and an inflation hedge (at a good price).

Just think for a moment about the problems we're going to see when the US runs out of dollars...

What - come again? With a total US money supply of $14T and growing, how in the world can we ever run out of dollars? What an idiot!

Ok, I agree, but allow me to explain my point...

Currently, the FDIC is backing over $4 TRILLION of insured electronic deposits (of ~ $6T total electronic deposits) w/~$38 BILLION in insurance money. When we finally see the inevitable major banking system failures, followed by a nationwide run on banks (which WILL follow), people will quickly find out that there is only ~ $400B in COLD HARD CASH circulating in the US (the rest are ones and zeros on computer hard drives) and the majority who try to "get theirs" will soon find themselves completely out of luck.

Bottom Line: You may want to get some cash on hand too - while you can... Before it too runs out of stock.

Regards

Randy

Oil expectations 2008-09?

Back in June, I told you about Lindsey Williams - who was an ordained Baptist minister in Alaska during the energy crisis of the 70's. Lindsey was present in several "Top Level meetings" when the largest oil field ever discovered in North America was celebrated (Gull Island Oil Field)-- only to become "Classified" the next day and never tapped/put to use.

Why? To control oil supplies and establish a dollar pricing agreement w/OPEC -- so OPEC would recycle those dollars, and buy our national debt and establish US Dollay Hegemony, as the country who controls oil and oil pricing, controls the world.

Here's a link to the videos and post: The Non-Energy Crisis--Lindsey Williams

For those of you unaware, recently (due to subject sensitivities) Mr. Williams' life was threatened and he was forced to shut down his web-site and stop selling his books and CDs.

Well, I just ran across a new article over at Silverbear Cafe that picks up where the videos above left off.

The Energy Non-Crisis (Bob Chapman).

Key extracts below, but I highly urge you to read the entire article.

At the urging of Dr. Stanley Monteith of Radio Liberty, Lindsey called back the same oil executive who had warned him about the danger he would be in if he continued to disseminate certain information - to ask if in fact there was any information that he could in fact convey to the public without upsetting the powers that be. The oil executive, who Mr. Williams had known for years, gave Mr. Williams some startling revelations which he could safely reveal to the general public. As you know, the Illuminati are arrogant enough to reveal some of their plans because they believe there is nothing we can do about it.

Basically, Mr. Williams was told that over the next twelve months, from mid-2008 to mid-2009:

(1) news of super giant oil fields, ready to produce, would be announced for two locations, in the Northern Slopes of Russia and in Indonesia, which oil fields would together contain more oil reserves than the entire Middle East;

(2) that this news would drive oil prices down to $50/barrel;

(3) that OPEC countries, especially in the Middle East, would be bankrupted by this price decrease;

(4) that this would cause the financing of our foreign trade and current account deficits through purchases of treasury paper by foreign nations with their surplus oil profits to collapse, leading to the collapse of the dollar;

(5) that the collapse of the dollar would cause unprecedented financial strife and turmoil in the US, and that it would take many years for the US to recover from this financial debacle;

(6) that they (big oil) support John McCain for President; and

(7) that US domestic oil reserves would never be tapped, and that any legislation which might allow domestic reserves to be tapped would not be allowed to pass, leaving the US dependent on foreign oil forever.

Interesting indeed...

Randy

Ron Paul: The Mother of All Bailouts!

Ron Paul talks about the bailout out of the housing industry and how it really just destroys the dollar and adds enormously to the debt. Also, slipped into the bill, was the stipulation that ALL credit card transactions must now be reported to the IRS.

US Dollar Intervention

The Dollar made some gains along with equities yesterday, while commodities and metals fell.

So, can one now assume the dollar crisis is over? NOT a Chance!

Then why the uptick and how long should we expect it to last?

The strengthening dollar can likely be attributed to coordinated global dollar intervention by the central banks of the world -- to prevent a full-blown dollar rout and stave off rapidly spiraling inflationary pressures. Bernanke even stated such in his congressional testimony last week: "Dollar intervention may be justified in Disorderly Times."

In a nutshell: By supporting/manipulating the dollar, short traders are forced to cover, thus causing the dollar to rally and energy prices to fall. When used in conjunction with other instruments in the PPT arsenal (i.e. large gold and energy shorts) the effect can be pronounced.

Timesonline: Ben Bernanke highlights fight against inflation

The dollar rebounded from Tuesday's record lows as Mr Bernanke combined his own emphasis on the Fed's determination to rein-in inflation by again brandishing the threat that Washington could intervene to halt the slide in the US currency.

In a new signal of growing concern at the Fed that the dollar's rapid decline on foreign exchanges is stoking inflationary pressures by driving up America's import bills, Mr Bernanke fired a fresh warning at the markets, making clear that currency intervention remains a weapon at the disposal of the US central bank and Treasury.

“Market intervention is a policy that's been undertaken a few times. I think it's something that should be done only rarely, but there may be conditions in which markets are disorderly where some temporary action is justified,” he said.


Forbes: Time is now for intervention to prop dollar:

Intervention by the U.S. Federal Reserve, undertaken in concert with the European Central Bank and other global economic powers, could be an inflexion point for the dollar after its 6 year fall.

And with the falling dollar playing a substantial role in rising oil prices, official action to back the currency could provide relief for consumers and ease the pressure from inflation, both in the United States and globally.

It would also be a very useful and timely insurance policy against any run on the dollar should global holders of U.S. debt take fright at what may be a massive bill, and proportionally huge supply of new U.S. debt, to backstop Fannie and Freddie and sort out problems in U.S. real estate and banking.

"This is a situation crying out for intervention and leadership," said Nick Parsons, head of market strategy at nabCapital in London.

The Bush administration has long argued that the value of the dollar should be set in the free and unfettered market, though where exactly a free market can be found I am increasingly unclear.
The serial bailouts, first of Bear Stearns and now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have robbed that argument of much of its moral and intellectual authority, though probably not all of its emotional appeal.

So, with that understood, how long should we expect the rally to last?

My bet is: we may see 74-75 as a rebound high for the US Dollar index, but the rally will probably end not later than August 5th... On that day, people will finally realize that Bernanke's hands are tied and can not/will not raise interest rates AT ANY TIME this year. Shortly thereafter, dollar selling will once again commence in earnest -- ultimately overtaking the efforts of our global central bank interventionists.

Bottom line: I still feel 70 will be taken out later this year.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

DOW COMMENTS

The DOW has rebounded nicely over the last week or so, but I now think it's time for another leg down. With Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Mich Sentiment and Durable Goods releases due later this week, I think it's likely we'll see a Friday closing number lower than today's 11,632.







Regards

Randy

Peter Schiff on Fox: Fannie and Freddie

Peter, once again, telling it like it is.

Click "play" twice to load

Peter Schiff: $5000.00 Gold By 2012 - Dollar Never Recovers - Game Over

Though a bit dated (mid May 08) Peter Schiff states that gold will see $2,000 in 2009 and likely $5,000 by 2012. (Ironic Note: I predicted the same target range back in my Jan 08 post -- Gold: how high?)

Additionally, Peter says silver will probably do better than gold and that the US dollar will NEVER recover.

The U.S. recession, the dollar, oil and IRAN

From Paris, Max Keiser, journalist and broadcaster speaks to Afshin Rattansi in Tehran.

Mr. Keiser absolutely nails the real issue that no one in America is talking about!

Could it be that the news we receive through our corporate owned media system is being controlled (not allowed to talk about this subject)? Hmmm...

IRAN has Bush over a Barrel

If you follow this blog regularly, you know I've been talking about IRAN for a couple of years now, and I've been predicting that we'll probably start dropping bombs before the end of Bush's tenure in office.

Why do I feel this way? Well, it's complicated, but I'll try to keep the explanation simple:

The US Dollar has been the World's reserve currency since the end of WWII. This reserve status was seriously threatened in 1971, when Nixon removed the Dollar/Gold peg and changed the dollar from a "commodity" to a "Fiat" currency.

The US-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation of 1974 restored waning confidence in the dollar by mandating that OPEC sell its oil for US Dollars ONLY. Any country who needed oil now needed to earn or borrow dollars to pay for their oil -- creating a huge worldwide demand for the US dollar and any excess dollars eventually got recycled back to the US.



For many years, this excess dollar recycling created a boon for America and these Petrodollars were used by our banking system to create new credit/debt -- helping our economy to grow.

If there were no good reasons for other countries to buy all those American dollars, the dollar would decline in value until the US economy could no longer afford to import goods from abroad.

Additionally, this excess foreign savings that America has grown used to would also dry up—putting us in quite the predicament.

The deal with OPEC however, means other countries have no choice but to buy all those excess American dollars, which props up the value of the dollar and allows the American "import economy" to go on year after year.

Effectively, America's main export is US dollars, and it is absolutely imperative to preserve a captive market for those dollars among oil-consuming countries -- the continued viability of the US economy depends on it. Americans today can still afford to consume because the economy is inundated with cheap imports, but a continued falling dollar will significantly raise the prices of imported goods and our cost of living.

For three decades, America has reaped the benefits of trading our printed dollars (created from nothing) for oil, but as our trade deficits continued to grow beyond comprehension and foreign policy blunders created new enemies, things started to change.

IRAN's Oil Bourse and refusal to take US Dollars for Oil

For decades, most worldwide oil trading took place on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London-based International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). This monopoly has recently come under threat.

In Feb 2008, IRAN opened its own oil Bourse (oil trading platform -- similar to NYMEX & IPE) and then refused to accept dollars for their Oil. (Note: Russia has taken similar steps recently and their new Bourse now trades oil for the ruble).

Theses new monetary threats are seriously jeopardizing the artificial "dollar-for-oil" prop and if the threat is not eliminated soon, the status of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency could be called to question.



Recap: Oil replaced gold in the mid 70's as the underlying peg for the USD and until Iran's recent actions all oil transactions around the globe had to be made in USD's. For three decades, oil provided the foundation for the World's reserve currency, but that foundation is starting to crack...


Shifting gears a bit

Though I disagree with Time author Robert Baer's assertion (that Bush can't attack IRAN) made in the article below, Mr. Baer has several very good points that I think everyone needs to think about.

How Iran Has Bush Over a Barrel

If wasn't clear before it should be now: the Bush Administration can't afford to attack Iran. With gas already at $4 a gallon and rising almost every day, Iran figuratively and literally has the United States over a barrel. As much as the Administration is tempted, it is not about to test Iran's promise to "explode" the Middle East if it is attacked.

The Iranians haven't been shy about making clear what's at stake. If the U.S. or Israel so much as drops a bomb on one of its reactors or its military training camps, Iran will shut down Gulf oil exports by launching a barrage of Chinese Silkworm missiles on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Arab oil facilities. In the worst case scenario, seventeen million barrels of oil would come off world markets.

One oil speculator told me that oil would hit $200 a barrel within minutes. But Iran's official news agency, Fars, puts it at $300 a barrel. I asked him if Iran is right, what does that mean?

"Four-dollar-a-gallon of gasoline only reflects $100 oil because the refiners' margins are squeezed," he said. "At $300, you have $12 a gallon of gasoline and riots in Newark, Los Angeles, Harlem, Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, Dallas."

In either case, whether at $200 or $300, Bush does not want to be the President who leaves the White House on a mule-drawn cart. But Iran's blackmail is not just about oil. The Iranians truly believe they have us hostage in Iraq — our supply lines, the acquiescence of the Shi'a in the occupation. It would all change in an instant, though, especially if we were to borrow Iraq to attack Iran. The way Fars put it: "In Iraq, fighters would rise up in solidarity with each other and begin ... making the Tet Offensive in 1968 Vietnam."

If this all sounds very alarming, Iran meant it to, and it seems to be working. On Tuesday Bush was talking about the prospect of new sanctions rather than attacking.

Which leaves Israel. Are the Israelis, who have a lot more on their minds than the price of gas in the United States, going to launch a pre-emptive attack? One hard and fast rule in the Middle East is never rule out Israel's readiness to turn the table over. But an Israeli hawk on Iran, with close ties to Israel's Ministry of Defense, told me to forget about it. "There's not a chance Israel will do anything. Maybe there's a window after the American elections and the new President but even that's doubtful. Washington does not have the stomach for another war."

Israel cannot attack or contain Iran on its own; it needs the full military might of the United States behind it. So in the meantime Israel can only huff and puff, hoping new sanctions on Iran will do the trick.

Closing:

I certainly hope Bush/Cheney aren't stupid enough to wage war with IRAN, but the recent resignation of CENTCOM Commander Admiral William Fallon -- over Iran policy -- really makes one wonder what the heck they are up to.

Once again, take a good look at the Strait of Hormuz below and realize that nearly 40% of the worlds oil passes through it and right by IRAN. What would happen to the price and supply of oil IF war were to happen?

Regards

Randy

Your Petrodollars at work

While most countries are suffering from high oil prices, they are also fuelling one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. For the oil and gas producing state of Qatar, the cost of filling up a car has not changed at all. Al Jazeera's correspondent, Dan Nolan, reports on the changing face of the country due to higher prices for oil and gas on the world market.

Qatar rides the oil boom

Bernanke's Next Moves

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week took the unusual step of defending the US Dollar and stated:

"We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term inflation expectations."

In layman's terms: We understand that our policy of cutting interest rates and injecting massive sums of money into our banking/financial system is causing significant dollar devaluations which is, in-turn, stoking massive inflation and future inflationary pressures. We the Fed, are on top of things and are in the process of formulating new policies to stave off these pressures, so don't bet on future rate cuts and you might even want to plan on seeing future rate increases.

HA! What a bunch of bologna... He's trapped and knows it!

With reports of the biggest jobless increase in over two decades, the largest housing bust since the Great Depression, Contagion spreading across the banking sector -- with massive writedowns to follow, recent MBIA and AMBAC downgrades, and credit crunch phase-2 ready to kick in, he is absolutely, unequivocally a caged animal with no room to move.

If he dare increase rates (he won't) our current, severely understated economic contraction will intensify and the downward sliding economic snowball, gathering momentum, will likely burst into a banking/financial system collapse.

Previously, I stated we'll likely see a 2% FFR in 08 and a 1% rate in 09. Thus far, I've been right in 08 and I still feel strongly I'll be right in 09.

As I see it, the Fed will hold five more FOMC meetings between now and the end of this year and rate announcements will be announced on the following dates:

June 25th
Aug 5th
Sept 16th
Oct 29th
Dec 16th

Baring any drop below 11,700 on the DOW between now and June 25th, I expect the fed to pause at the next FOMC meeting(no action on rates) -- If we do drop below the stated number, expect a new rate cut.

I expect Credit Crunch Phase-2 to kick in by Aug/Sept 08, and it will likely make phase-1 look like a walk in the park, so expect a cut at one of these meetings and another in October 08.

By December, semantic debate over our full-blown economic recession will be over/recession will be unquestionable and our newly elected President will demand action -- so expect another cut.

Bottom Line: Expect a 1.5% or lower FFR between now and the end of this year and a 1% or lower in 09.

Helicopter Ben's recent "strong dollar" talk is just that -- "talk", so don't expect any change from current policy.

US Dollar index going below 70 this year and inflation will intensify... His rant was all smoke and mirrors for the gullible.




Best regards

Randy

Economicrot.blogspot.com

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The Non-Energy Crisis--Lindsey Williams

Excellent, Fantastic, almost unbelievable late-2006 presentation that I urge everyone to watch.

In summary: Lindsey was a an ordained Baptist minister in Alaska during the energy crisis of the 70's and was present in several "Top Level meetings" when the largest oil field ever discovered in North America was celebrated (Gull Island Oil Field)-- only to become "Classified" the next day and never tapped/put to use.... Why? To control oil supplies and establish a dollar pricing agreement w/OPEC -- so they would recycle those dollars, and buy our national debt. He who controls oil and oil pricing, controls the world.

Iraq (World's 2nd largest oil reserves) was a setup because they wouldn't accept US Dollar standard and Iran (3rd largest reserves)will be next.

There are multiple parts to this series and I highly suggest you watch them all, but I've posted up the main ones so you can get a taste.

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3


Non-Energy Crisis Part 4




Non-Energy Crisis Part 5




Non-Energy Crisis Part 6




Non-Energy Crisis Part 7




Non-Energy Crisis Part 8