Sunday, January 22, 2006

LaRouche--We're on the edge of the biggest financial mortgage bubble collapse in world history

Just found/read this EIR article: Transcripts from a radio interview w/ Lyndon LaRouche on Jan 18, 2006. It is a rather long interview, so I will just pick out relevant snippets:

For those of you who don't know anything about previous presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche -- See Link

Snippets from interview below:

" ...We're up against the potentiality, which is coming out of the international financial crisis, that somebody's going to try to do what they did in the 1930s! Set up dictatorship. Because, they don't want democratic processes interfering with what dictators want to do with the economy, and with other things."

"You have this pressure on Iran, the question on Syria, so forth—more wars, more wars! And the fear we have, in Washington, is that, were Alito confirmed, that Cheney and company would push ahead, we'd get those "more wars" which are now waiting for us, in Syria, in Iran, and so forth. It's an extremely dangerous situation, particularly as today, and yesterday, you have this crisis on the Japan stock market. Which could be—that is, "could be"; these things are not so simple, you can say "yes" or "no"—but it could be the trigger that could set off a world financial collapse."

"...we have a potential collapse of the real-estate bubble in the United States, the mortgage-based securities bubble. Also in Britain, also in Spain, and other parts of the world. This is very much involved with the hedge funds, and we're looking at the Japan crisis: To what degree the hedge funds are involved in this Japan flap, where they went down about 6% on the market over the past day."

"There's always a question of this, because we're dealing with a hyperinflationary economy, where every time we go into a potential collapse, someone starts pouring a lot of aggregate into the money system, and therefore you have an inflationary postponement of a crash which is ultimately inevitable. Now, the only thing that'd stop this crash, is if the Federal government would simply say, "Well, our system is in bankruptcy."

"We're on the edge of a crash, could occur any timet. We're on the edge of the biggest financial mortgage bubble collapse in world history. We hope that it doesn't come too soon."

"...we have to reverse our direction, and go back to becoming an agro-industrial manufacturing nation, again. We should no longer be living on what other people produce for us, at low wages, while we leave our own people unemployed. That's what the problem is: We're not producing enough. We're not educating enough people, we're throwing too many of our people on the dump.

9 Comments:

At 1/22/2006 6:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very possible

mynewsbot.com

 
At 1/22/2006 8:51 PM, Blogger 41cadillac said...

Finally there seems to be some reporting by TV news about the slow down in the real estate market.

When the ARM and Interest Only loans start adjusting then more attention will be featured in the news.

Stock market investors are already shorting home builder stocks.

Real estate is getting very interesting indeed.

 
At 1/22/2006 9:13 PM, Blogger Out at the peak said...

Wow, you opened up the comment section? Thanks. I always wanted to comment on this excellent blog.

My dad has a lot of mortgage backed securities, and I'm trying to convince him to reduce those holdings substancially.

 
At 1/23/2006 5:36 AM, Blogger 41cadillac said...

Mr. or Ms. out at the peak:

Here is a list of home builders to watch. Centex for example had a blow out new home sale price reduction of $75,000 this weekend.

If you plug into Yahoo Finance the stock symbol you can follow the prices and message boards.

You also can go into Yahoo Finance and search for Mortgage Companies and Banks, then key those symbols into a stock watch list.

Also a well chosen oil and company with drilling in the USA is a good investment. Good Luck

N V R L P 752.50 0.00 NVR
WILLIAM LYON HOME 101.89 0.00 WLS
DOMINION HOMES IN 10.20 0.00 DHOM
COMSTOCK HOMEBUIL 13.52 0.00 CHCI
CENTEX CP 73.45 0.00 CTX
MERITAGE HOMES CO 58.18 0.00 MTH
HOVNANIAN ENT INC 50.67 0.00 HOV
TOLL BROTHERS INC 35.18 0.00 TOL
LENNAR CP CL A 61.75 0.00 LEN
PULTE HOMES, INC. 40.29 0.00 PHM
STANDARD PACIFIC 39.64 0.00 SPF
D R HORTON INC 38.12 0.00 DHI
BEAZER HOMES USA 75.01 0.00 BZH
ISHARE DJ R EST I 66.92 0.00 IYR
FREDDIE MAC 65.91 0.00 FRE
FANNIE MAE 53.21 0.00 FNM
SIMON PPTY GRP IN 80.75 0.00 SPG
CENTEX CP 73.45 0.00 CTX
KB HOME 76.73 0.00 KBH
M D C HOLDINGS 65.06 0.00 MDC
ECC CAP. CORP. 2.26 0.00 ECR
AMER HOME MTG INV 29.30 0.00 AHM

 
At 1/23/2006 6:22 AM, Blogger David said...

Laroche might be right on this, but he still is whacked

 
At 1/23/2006 6:42 AM, Blogger contrarian2day said...

Thanks for the comments! Guess I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer--I didn't realize my comments have been disabled for a couple of weeks--someone just pointed it out to me yesterday via e-mail.

Please forgive the new guy!
Randy

 
At 1/23/2006 9:52 AM, Blogger Oregon said...

This is a great blog keep up the good work, people are listening. I hope things work themselves out with out too great of pain for the average american, but I fear we are headed for a nasty resession.

 
At 1/24/2006 10:19 AM, Blogger inkyfingers said...

If you look at our neighbor to the West and how absoltuely INSANE that market is you'd be smart to get out of mortgage securities. All the folks who couldn't participate in that insanity spilled over here into the desert with interest only mortgages. Yikes.

Excellent blog, btw. I've linked to you. Keep up the good work.

 
At 1/24/2006 6:56 PM, Blogger contrarian2day said...

Inkyfingers,

I completely agree! The market was Insane--looks to be cooling though. Long-term, I believe people are going to get creamed!

Fortunately, I sold out while the getting was good, paid off all debt and live comfortably within my means.

Additional luck for me: Due to the massive number of real-estate speculators in this market, Las Vegas has become a renter’s heaven. Rent currently costs less than 3/5ths a typical Mortgage.

Example: Currently, I'm renting ($1,875 mo) a brand new 3,500 sq ft home in a master planned community, numerous interior upgrades (Hardwood/Berber, Granite, Stainless Appliances, Cherry Cabinets, etc.)-- currently market is at ~ $600K.

If I were to purchase this home, (even with $80K down), borrowing $520K @ 6% APR, with a conventional 30yr mtg, my payment (PIT&I) would be greater than $3,500 mo.

WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO BUY HERE???

I figure the 3-5 yr wait will pay off handsomely, as I wait with cash in hand and watch home values decrease--and homeowners & banks offer their fireside sales.

 

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