Discussion of Housing Bubble, US Dollar, Debt, Trade Deficit, Oil, Gold, Consumer Spending, Central Banks, Inflation, Outsourcing and the Bleak Future of the US economy
This Blog and/or the articles contained within have been referenced, linked or quoted in: Businessweek online, WSJ Online, Dollar Collapse, Safehaven, Silverbear Cafe, Financial Armageddon, Yahoo & Google Finance -- among many other blogs & web-pages... Thanks for stopping in for a read!
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Unbelievable - Now US Mint suspends "Gold" Eagle coin sales
From APMX: News Alert - US Mint suspended sales of the 1 oz Gold American Eagles
We just received word, the US Mint has suspended sales of the 1 oz Gold American Eagles until further notice and are not accepting new orders from precious metals dealers. This is in addition to the shortage of 1 oz Silver American Eagles.
This comes at a time when many investors around the nation are scrambling to locate silver bullion and US gold coins while prices are attractively low. These low prices seem to be one of the driving factors in this recent shortage, as investor demand has dramatically increased.
From Reuters UK: Mint suspends red-hot Eagle gold coins
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A shortage of American Eagle bullion coins due to soaring demand following a recent sharp retreat in gold prices has forced the U.S. Mint to temporarily suspend sales of the popular coins.
"Due to the unprecedented demand for American Eagle gold one-ounce bullion coins, our inventories have been depleted. We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins," the U.S. Mint told authorized coin dealers in a memorandum dated on Friday.
Michael White, a U.S. Mint spokesman, said that only the one-ounce 22-karat American Eagle coins are sold out, but the half-ounce, quarter-ounce, and 1-10th ounce coins as well as the less popular 24-karat American Buffalo coins are still available.
"We are working diligently to build up our inventory and hope to resume sales shortly," the Mint said.
Coin dealers from the United States to Canada reported a surge in buying of bullion coins and other gold products since prices plummeted from highs last month. The buying spree contributed to supply fears and helped boost gold prices sharply on Thursday.
Rand LeShay, senior vice president of Los Angeles-based A-Mark Precious Metals, an authorized purchaser for the U.S. Mint, said that there was a big spike in demand for gold and silver coins and ingots after a recent price tumble.
He said that A-Mark currently has no one-ounce American Eagle gold coins for its customers.
"Until the U.S. Mint can supply us with more coins, we won't be able to supply any to our customers," LeShay said.
The move by the U.S. Mint to halt sales caught market participants by surprise as it came at a time when the metal was sharply falling, rather than rising.
In contrast, the Mint needed to allocate its Silver Eagle coins to dealers due to overwhelming demand as the price of silver soared earlier this year.
Produced from gold mined in the United States, the American Eagles have been novel items among collectors and investors since their introduction in 1986. Each coin has a face value of $50 but it is sold by authorized dealers at a premium to the price of gold.
COIN DEMAND SPIKES
Blanchard and Co., one of the largest U.S. retail dealers of rare coins and precious metals, said the American Eagle and American Buffalo one-ounce gold coins are sold out.
"Nobody has the Eagles or the Buffaloes right now. We bought 2,000 ounces late last week, and those were the last 2,000 ounces that we can find in the marketplace," said David Beahm, vice president of New Orleans-based Blanchard.
"If we don't have them, nobody has them," Beahm said. He added that he has been recommending customers to buy the one-ounce Canadian Gold Maple Leaf gold coin instead.
Jon Nadler, senior analyst at top Canadian dealer Kitco, said that the shortage of the Eagle coins could be due to a combination of high demand and a temporary lack of supply in coin blank, which is a flat metal disk used to mint coins.
On Thursday, spot gold surged as much as 3 percent to $839 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery scaled a one-week high at $845 an ounce. Gold hit a five-month peak of $987.75 on July 15, and it set an all-time record of $1,030.80 on March 17
In hindsight, A-Mark's LeShay said that neither the U.S. Mint nor the coin dealers could anticipate the coin shortage.
"This kind of spike in demand is something no one can foresee, and no business runs itself waiting for this to happen," LeShay said.
Shifting gears a bit for a closing comment:
This is certainly a supply/demand driven situation as people rush for real money and an inflation hedge (at a good price).
Just think for a moment about the problems we're going to see when the US runs out of dollars...
What - come again? With a total US money supply of $14T and growing, how in the world can we ever run out of dollars? What an idiot!
Ok, I agree, but allow me to explain my point...
Currently, the FDIC is backing over $4 TRILLION of insured electronic deposits (of ~ $6T total electronic deposits) w/~$38 BILLION in insurance money. When we finally see the inevitable major banking system failures, followed by a nationwide run on banks (which WILL follow), people will quickly find out that there is only ~ $400B in COLD HARD CASH circulating in the US (the rest are ones and zeros on computer hard drives) and the majority who try to "get theirs" will soon find themselves completely out of luck.
Bottom Line: You may want to get some cash on hand too - while you can... Before it too runs out of stock.
Regards
Randy
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets
Big Kudos to James Conrad!
The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets
.
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Peter Schiff: $5000.00 Gold By 2012 - Dollar Never Recovers - Game Over
Additionally, Peter says silver will probably do better than gold and that the US dollar will NEVER recover.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
US Economic Outlook 2008-11+
Note: If it's hard to see/read the briefing below, please click on this link and view the updated briefing in full-screen
Best regards
Randy
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Curb on Coin Sales Angers Collectors
The government rationed food during World War II and gasoline in the 1970s. Now, it's imposing quotas on another precious commodity: 2008 dollar coins known as silver eagles.
The coins, each containing about an ounce of silver, have become so popular among investors seeking alternatives to stocks and real estate that the U.S. Mint can't make them fast enough. In
March, the mint stopped taking orders for the bullion coins. Late last month, it began limiting how many coins its 13 authorized buyers world-wide are allowed to purchase."This came out of nowhere," says Mark Oliari, owner of Coins 'N Things Inc. in Bridgewater, Mass., one of the biggest buyers of silver eagles. With customers demanding twice as many as they did last year, Mr. Oliari would like to buy 500,000 a week. But the mint will sell him only around 100,000.
The mint, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury, has offered little explanation beyond a memo last month to its dealers. "The unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins necessitates our allocating these coins on a weekly basis until we are able to meet demand," the mint wrote. A spokesman declined to elaborate.
The rare shortage offers a glimpse into the growing love of a commodity known as "poor man's gold." With more silver mined than gold traditionally, silver has always been far cheaper than gold and today has less than 2% of gold's value.
But silver is growing in popularity, and some investors are betting that its value will surge as inventory shrinks. Big investors are loading up on silver eagles, which are the only American silver coins allowed in individual retirement plans. For small investors, they are an accessible way to get into the metal boom.
"Unlike gold, these coins can be bought by regular citizens," says J.R. Roland, a Brownsville, Tenn., judge who recently began buying the coins -- and trading them on eBay. "In these economic hard times, silver coins are a great way to invest."
The coins are made at an armored facility in West Point, N.Y., alongside the military academy. Dealers say they heard the mint had run out of planchets -- round metal disks ready to be struck into coins. The disks are used for various coins, and the companies producing the blanks also are busy, limiting the mint's ability to increase production. The mint won't comment on the planchets.
Each Monday morning now, the mint divides its silver coins into two pools. It divvies up the first equally among authorized purchasers. The second is allocated proportionately, based on the buyer's past purchases. The mint limited purchases once before -- in the late 1990s, when investors loaded up on silver, wrongly anticipating that a failure by the world's computers to adjust to the new millennium would cripple the economy.
Jim Hausman, head of the Gold Center in Springfield, Ill., one of eight companies in the U.S. authorized to buy silver eagles, estimates that the rationing will cut his expected annual sales of four million silver eagles in half
Monday, April 21, 2008
Death of a Dream
Death of a Dream
After 232 years the American Dream is over folks. In the 1780's Alexander Tyler wrote, "A democracy is always temporary in nature lasting on average 225 years and cannot exist as a permanent form of government." The U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights have been gutted. We almost elected an openly Marxist lesbian as our President and Commander in Chief. Obama Osama is to the left of Hillary, if you can comprehend that. McCain is dying of jaw cancer as if that isn't obvious. 1 in 10 American adults, children, and infants are on food stamps. One in six are government employees. The housing crash is just warming up! 59% of homes for sale in Los Angeles are fore-closures. They are selling for 50 cents on the dollar at auction. Adjusted for inflation since 2005 it is a quarter on the dollar. The dollar is useless. Our trade and budget deficits are egregious. The DJI is ready to collapse down to 5,000 ultimately. The DJT and DJU are hopeless. Dow Theory is telling us the house of cards is about to fall. Illegal immigration is completely out of control, and McCain will open the border gates even wider. Real unemployment is 14%, and real inflation is 18%. Four major airlines just went bankrupt- ATA, Skybus, Frontier, and Aloha (ATA was once the 10th largest). Alan Greenspan just publically admitted we're in a recession. We've been in one for months, and 70% of Americans know that. Gordon Brown (England's Prime Minister) just said we face the greatest economic crisis of the century. George Soros said the economic situation is hopeless. Warren Buffet basically said the same thing. Only 10% of our jobs are in manufacturing. We're now a mere service economy. We are closer to the Much Greater Depression every day.
Real inflation is now up to 18% as proven by configured M3 figures (which the government refuses to print anymore). See www.shadowstats.com if you want to verify that. Has your salary gone up 18%? Your home? Your private or government pension? Your Social Insecurity? Of course not. Your wealth has to go up 18% a year now just to break even! Let's take a prime example: General Electric (GE) was $28 five years ago.
Estimating 10% real inflation over that time GE stock would have to go up ($31, $34, $37, $41, $45) to $45 just to break even. It is $32 now, so it is DOWN 30% in the last five year. The real purchasing power is down almost a third in only five years.
What can you do? Put every penny you have into silver. If you can't convert your IRA/401k to American silver stocks then dump it. Take the 40% hit, and put the 60% into silver. There is a severe shortage of silver bullion, but you can still buy it at Gaithersburg Coin in Maryland. There has never been a silver shortage in the history of the world until now. Soon we will be completely out of silver, and mine supply (and recycling) will not begin to cover the shortage. Silver will go to $200 an ounce and probably keep going. Gold should merely go to $3,000.
Look for $30 silver by Christmas. In addition to Quaterra, Silverstone, Impact, U.S. Silver, ECU, Fury, Endeavor, and First Majestic, we're going to add Genco today (we don't own this). There are only about 50 real silver mines in the world, and only maybe a dozen are worth buying. You must hold any bullion in your own personal physical possession. You cannot own ETF's, silver certificates, or other paper silver. You cannot let anyone store it for you. If you don't possess it, you don't own it. The $4 correction from $21 to $17 makes this a strong market which is now blue skies all the way to $30. Silver has far, far more potential than gold, and cannot be confiscated.
With Admiral Fallon out of the way, our illegal, immoral, insane, unethical attack on Iran looms closer. McCain and Petraeus won't shut up about the "danger" Iran poses to us. We have already attacked the Iranian banks with FinCEN. The Saudis are preparing for it. The Russians have detected American military buildup on the Iran border. Our war- ships are in the Persian Gulf. We have a record number of troops in Afghanistan. Syria is preparing for an attack by the U.S. CNBC, CNN, and the media constantly beat the Iran-ian war drum. An attack on Iran is going to end in disaster in many, many ways. Go to www.vdare.com and read Paul Craig Roberts about this. No more oil will be just one of the results. Gasoline and diesel are now $10 in Europe, and soon will be $10 here. Can you say "$10 gasoline"? Truckers are already starting to strike to stop federal and state diesel taxes for trucks. They are going to have a nationwide strike as they can't feed their families. American moves by truck. A trucking strike will freeze this country. Suspend-ing all commercial diesel fuel taxes would be good for this country. Support the truckers, unless you want the economy to grind to a halt overnight.
CNBC is the official government disinformation center, and Jim Cramer the Emperor of Disinformation. Watch his show to see what NOT to do. Whatever he tells you to buy, you sell it. Notice that Cramer missed the move in gold from $300 to $1,000, and the move in silver from $5 to $20. He still ignores both gold and silver, while he tells you to invest in the house-of-cards stock market. Do the opposite of anything he says. The DJI to gold ratio used to be 1:1 in 1980, but went to 45:1 in 2000. It is now 13:1 (12,300: $930) and headed back to 1:1.
Have you noticed your local shopping mall is going under? Have you noticed how many empty stores there are in your local strip malls? The Big Three Auto Makers are all broke. The entire banking system is bankrupt. The fifth largest bank in the world, Bear Stearns, is bankrupt. Citibank, Wells Fargo, Lehman, Bank of America are all next. Wachovia, the fourth largest, is about to go under as well. Open your eyes! Nothing like this has happened in almost 80 years since the last depression. You don't need to be a psychic to see the future; just look closely at today. The bailout (at YOUR expense) will just make things worse. The entire world banking system is coming unglued with the DERIVATIVES unraveling. Now the Federal Reserve is going to take over our entire investment system, nationalize the banks, and make Russia look like a free country. After the Federal Reserve was formed in 1913 the dollar has lost 99% of it's value. That's right- the Fed has made the dollar worth a penny in 95 years. Countless major chains are going under every day. The Top 10 Home Builders are completely and totally done in. The budget deficit worsens every day. The national debt gets deeper. The trade deficit worsens. We can't even sell T-Bills and T-Bonds to the fools who were buying them. The U.S. dollar is Monopoly Money. Inflation is destroying the middle class here- the very bedrock of America. We used to have the cheapest most plentiful food supply on earth bar none. No longer. Seen $1.19 lemons lately? Watch beef become unaffordable by the end of the year like in socialistic Europe. Restaurants are going broke. Hotels are going broke. Most everyone is going broke.
The energy crisis is a lie; we have endless energy available now. Global warming is complete scam. Ethanol is a government funded scam- at your expense. Coal, natural gas, and uranium are plentiful, and will last for hundreds of years. The military has enough oil off the coast of Alaska for 100 years. We don't even have any oil refineries now. Oil is useless without refineries. Windmills for power is a joke out of the 18th century. Hydrogen fuel cells are a long, long way off in the future. Hydroelectric is limited. We have no SASOL plants in the U.S. to make endless $4 liquid fuel out of coal. 60% of all our energy is ELECTRIC, and we can generate all we want with coal, natural gas, and uranium.
If you think things are bad now, by Christmas you'll be ready to jump off a bridge. 2009 to 2010 will usher in the Much Greater Depression, and events will unfold so quickly you'll be shocked and blindsided. We'll get Patriot Act II for finances. Banks will be nationalized as all police states do. Food and gasoline will be rationed. You'll think you're in Cuba, only you won't have bananas. There are already worldwide food riots. People around the world cannot cannot even get rice to eat. The housing crash is just beginning, along with the stock market collapse. It's just getting warmed up folks.
Your salary, your house, your pension, your Social Insecurity, the stock market all have to go up 18% just to break even! That's just to break even and not lose. Are they all going up 18% or more? Of course they aren't, and your standard of living is going to hell every day- as is your future. Silver is $18, and will be $30 by the end of the year. Silver is your financial saviour. Silver has almost quadrupled in the last five years. Silver is going to $200 an ounce in the next five years. Silver is a much better investment than gold, and gold is a great investment.
So many major longtime companies and chains are closing stores and going out of business you can't name them all. Sharper Image, Wilson's Leather, Pep Boys, Comp USA, Ethan Allen, Macy's, Levitz, PacSun, Lane Bryant, Talbots, Krispy Kreme, Starbucks, Harley Davidson, 84 Lumber, Home Depot, RentACenter, Rite Aid, Sprint, Disney Store, and Linen'n'Things are just SOME of them. The list gets longer every month.
If you want to read more go to http://www.kitco.com/ and read the Contributed Commentaries.
Go to http://www.butlerresearch.com/ to see what Ted Butler has to say about silver.
Join GATA at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com./You can get a two week free trial and it's $199 a year.
Or you can just read the Econmic Rants twice a month for free. Soon the website http://www.economicrant.com/ will open. Free of course.
Now go out and buy all the silver you can!
Click here for Roger's Past Monthly Rants
Friday, March 21, 2008
Is the Credit Crunch Over?
My Thoughts:
Bottom line: Recent sentiment change created by Financial Wizard market manipulation is all smoke and mirrors – the PPT is trying to re-establish faith and trust in markets (and a currency) that are ready to implode.
What manipulation am I talking about?
Let’s look at the recent precious metals sell-off: Gold and Silver took their worst beating in years during the recent commodities smack-down. How in the world could these metals get crushed so badly when dealers are overwhelmed with orders and can’t get or keep enough products on their shelves?
Must see this link (and pictures below) to understand what I’m talking about: Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
Kitco


Additionally, I received this message via email from APMX just yesterday:
Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem. In the mean time, we will be accepting telephone orders for the following items only as we have them available:1 ounce Gold American Eagles1 ounce Gold Canadian Maple Leafs1 Ounce Gold Krugerrands100 oz Silver BarsMisc Generic .999 Fine Silver90% Coin SilverDuring this time, we will have a minimum order of $5,000. We regret we have had to make this drastic change to our ordering process and rest assured, we are working expeditiously to correct the problem. As soon as we have our new site up and running, we will notify you via e-mail when you can again place orders online.
High Demand for 2008 Silver Maple Leafs: The Royal Canadian Mint has found itself unable to fully meet the unprecedented demand for silver Maple Leaf coins with its current supply, and has temporarily suspended shipments. This situation is temporary until more of this fine bullion product can be struck and shipped. Because many of our customers want to purchase this product at today's prices, Northwest Territorial Mint will accept orders now for shipment when the product becomes available, which we expect will exceed 30 days. If the wait for product proves too lengthy, we reserve the right to substitute a similar silver product.
OK, if there is such a supply shortage, why did PM prices crash this last week?
It was a PPT manipulated paper smack-down (through engineered margin call selling of futures, options, etc – to fry the longs, destroy prices and signal an end to the commodity boom) that has changed none of the underlying precious metals supply/demand/inflation-hedge/flight-to safety fundamentals.
But it did provide a great buying opportunity – could be a very good time to back up the truck and load up w/physical…
Take a look at who is taking advantage of this smack-down:
Asia jewellers on buying spree as price sinks-- It probably won’t be too long before PM prices regain their footing..
Jewellers across Asia rushed to buy gold on Thursday after prices tumbled more than $100 an ounce since spiking to a record above $1,000 an ounce this week, pushing up premiums in key bullion trading centres. Gold fell more than 2 percent to hit a 1-month low of $920.30 an ounce as funds sold bullion after pushing up the price to a lifetime high of $1,030.80 on Monday.
Superb comment from a reader at a PM blog I routinely visit -- summarizes the situation perfectly: Somebody took advantage of a short trading week to slam PMs - on options expiration week (saving the shorts' shorts!) - and by the same token make a "double-top" appear out of the blue - to signal "an end to the commodities bull" and "an end to the bearish dollar" - based on NO REAL PHYSICAL TRADING - just "PAPER"...
With our manipulation discussion out of the way, what about the credit crisis being resolved?
Bloomberg Today:
Goldman, Lehman Rating Outlook Cut to Negative by S&P (Update3)
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm, and smaller rival Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had their credit-rating outlook cut to negative by Standard & Poor's, which said Wall Street banks' profits may fall as much as 30 percent in the coming year.
``Our current expectation is that net revenue could decline'' at least 20 percent for independent securities firms, S&P said in a statement today.
Or this one:
Big U.S. finance company faces credit crisis, and shares fall
The crisis in the credit markets is threatening to engulf one of the largest commercial finance companies in the United States.
The CIT Group, a century-old company that lends money to small businesses and midsize corporations, drew on $7.3 billion of emergency bank credit lines on Thursday, causing its shares and bonds to plummet.
CIT, whose businesses range from making student loans to financing purchases of airplanes and railroad cars, announced that it would try to sell some assets or businesses to raise cash and repay its debts. Analysts said the tightening credit squeeze could drive the entire company into the arms of a bidder.
The developments at CIT suggest that the credit troubles that felled Bear Stearns this week continue to spread, despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to encourage banks to lend to other financial companies.
Another:
Credit crisis puts vise grip on leveraged companies
There are 93 US companies at risk of defaulting on $53 billion in debts, a new report shows, marking a 50 percent jump since last June, when the credit crisis started. Many of these debt-laden companies were involved in giant leveraged buyouts.
Standard & Poor’s ‘‘weakest links’’ report is forecasting that 75 US companies will default on their debts in the next 12 months. Of the 93 companies at risk, more than half were involved in takeovers by big-name private equity firms, including Boston’s Thomas H. Lee Partners, Bain Capital, and J.W. Childs Associates.
The sectors worst hit are media and entertainment, and consumer and retail. Many of the names are familiar to consumers, like Uno Restaurant Holdings Corp., the Boston-based pizza restaurant group; Linens ‘n Things Inc., the home goods chain; and Univision Communications Inc., the Spanish-language television and radio company.
‘‘This is just the beginning,’’ said Diane Vazza, managing director and head of Global Fixed Income Research at Standard and Poor’s in New York. For companies struggling with debt payments, she said, ‘‘There’s no way in a slowing economy, potentially a recessionary economy, to grow out of that.’’
I could go on with additional links to illustrate the depths of this credit crisis, but I think you get the point—the recent smoke and mirrors caused by PPT market manipulation has solved nothing. Our banking system is still insolvent and the fed is pumping money into a bottomless pit.
BOTTOM LINE: A one or two day turn around for stocks and commodities means little.
NOTHING, absolutely nothing regarding underlying fundamentals has changed from last week, except the titanic has taken on a bit more water, and the captain is desperately trying to reassure us by saying -- "it's only a small leak and lifeboats (PM's) won't be needed."
Go ahead and trust the captain -- but at your own peril...
OK, my doom and gloom is out of the way -- how about some closing funnies?


Regards and happy easter to all!
Randy
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Two out of Three (thus far this week) aint bad
Gold is still flirting w/the $1K mark. Lets see what tomorrow brings
Two bonus charts follow -- for shits and grins, as they both follow nicely with my long-term dollar sacrificing/hyper-inflationary scenario:
US Dollar Index has fallen off a cliff --Lowest EVER
Oil is reaching for the sky! -- Highest EVER!!

Regards
Randy
