Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Peter Schiff: U S Rally Is Doomed, Gold Will Hit $5000

The worst is not over, according to Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff, who predicts the Dow will fall another 90% from current levels when measured against gold.

Schiff believes gold is currently "climbing a wall of worry" but will eventually become as hot as tech stocks in 1999 and start moving up $100 per day - eventually hitting $5000 per ounce sometime "in the next couple of years,".

Peter predicts the Dow and gold will trade on a one-to-one ratio vs. the current level of around 9.7-to-1. His forecast is based on a view the U.S. dollar will eventually collapse under the weight of our massive deficit and reckless policies of the Obama administration, which he compares to the massive spending programs of the 1960s - which paved the way for gold's ascent in the 1970s.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Commercial Real Estate Crisis Looming?

Commercial real estate is the "second shoe" to drop in hurting the economy, Daniel Tishman, chairman and CEO of the Tishman Construction Corporation told CNBC.

"We're getting through the single housing real estate market OK but the numbers involved in commercial real estate in all sectors are staggering," Tishman said. "Trillions of dollars are involved in commercial loans. The roll over of those loans in the next 5-7 years is going to happen and the money just isn't there for refinancing."

"I think they (banks) are very exposed," said Tishman. "There are huge numbers of banks that could have problems (and face closings) going forward because of carrying these commercial loans."

I anticipated this crisis back in 2006 - link

Sunday, September 27, 2009

$15,000 Gold?

Robert Kiyosaki, along with friend and author of the Rich Dad Advisor Book, Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, Mike Maloney, explains why gold and silver are vital investments for todays economy - and their explanation on why the price of gold could rise to $15K deserves consideration.

Note: Before our money supply exploded, I suggested $5-6K Gold - Link Gold How High?

Peter Schiff also suggested $5K gold by 2012 - Link $5000.00 Gold By 2012 - Dollar Never Recovers - Game Over

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Marc Faber: Massive Gvt Stimulus + Super Easy Fed = Trouble Ahead

"Run for your lives! The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today - wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of western society."

Interview gets good after 3 minute point:

Interviewer: "You are talking about Economic Armageddon here."

Farber: "Yes, Yes, Absolutely - that I am convinced. A high confidence prediction that total collapse will come."

Farber: Bullish now but ultra-bearish for the long term. (note: this is a comment that I disagree with - see charts at bottom of post for rationale)

Charts below extracted from Ty Andros's superb article - Fingers of Instability Part VI - Train Wreck Dead Ahead

Bottom line - near-term: I think we're overdue for another severe stockmarket downturn. Now I don't believe this near term market correction will lead to the complete Economic Armageddon Faber is talking about, but I do agree with him it will happen over the longer term... Main issue over the longer term being: The dollar is toast!

Twenty Ten by Lloyd Marcus

Excellent song, superb lyrics and phenomenal voice but remember folks... this is NOT a Democrat vs Republican issue (two heads of the same monster)... If you recall, we as a nation were against the bailouts - we emailed, faxed, called, wrote letters and our Representitives completely ignored our wishes - REPUBLICANS and DEMS ALIKE!

Your 2010 vote shouldn't be Republican Vs. Democrat (a lesser of 2 evils) issue - It should be a wrong vs right vote; a "government of the people" vs a "Gvt supporting financial institution and corporations" focused vote; a pro-constitution vote; an anti socialism, anti fascism vote; A vote for ethical men who understand the issues - like Ron Paul. Others who have shown their ignorant colors and favoritism (like Pelosi, Reid, Frank, etc) deserve a good swift boot to the curb!

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Las Vegas Unemployment Soars to new record - 13.4%!

It's certainly no secret to many here that I've been calling for a severe economic downturn in Las Vegas since the boom of 2005/6.

Las Vegas - A House of Cards Bound to fall

Early on, many considered my bleak outlook ludicrous, as past history has shown Vegas to be quite resilient and recession proof.

Well, seems that's not quite the case anymore.

August's statewide unemployment rate for Nevada was nearly triple the level from the recession's beginning in December 2007, when joblessness clocked in at 5.2 percent.

The August jobless rate in Nevada now stands at 13.2 percent as the recession continues to hammer the state and metropolitan areas - Nevada's jobless rate is now the highest on record - dating back to 1976 - and is currently the second highest unemployment rate in the nation, trailing only Michigan at 15.2 percent.

See chart I created below for visual reference - data from Nevadaworkforce.com

The Las Vegas unemployment rate is even worse than the State in which it's located - 13.4% (Note: I anticipate this rate will soon jump again as the ~ $10 Billion CityCenter construction project is finished up and thousands of construction workers are laid off)

The following comments regarding our true state & city unemployment picture came from the Las Vegas Review Journal (maybe they are finally catching on?):

“The employment department's published rate isn't a complete accounting of joblessness. The numbers come mostly from surveys of households and businesses. They don't include discouraged residents who've quit seeking work, nor do they account for underemployed workers who can find only part-time jobs. A state economist said in August that current overall numbers likely run close to 20 percent, and Keith Schwer (director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas) agreed with that analysis.”

Above comments sound very similar to a recent post of mine: True US Unemployment Rate > 20%

Job Losses:

Southern Nevada’s two largest industries, tourism and construction, have shed the most jobs, while only the education and health care sectors have added payroll.

With ~ 183,000 Nevadans now out of work, the recession has nearly depleted the state’s unemployment fund, forcing Nevada leaders to apply for up to $264 million in federal loans.

The money would cover jobless benefits through the end of the year, but some officials said Nevada could need more than $1 billion to get through 2010 if the economy doesn't make a dramatic turnaround.

Guess what folks - it's already baked in the cake and we'll be needing the $$!

Closing - how we got here and looking ahead:

Growth in Las Vegas was absolutely phenomenal through the last decade leading up to 2006/7. This was a decade of prosperity driven by cheap credit (both consumer and business) and rising asset values - spawned by the bubble policies of both our government and the (non) Federal Reserve. These monetary drivers created a consumer wealth effect and influenced a carefree lifestyle - tourists had lots of cheap, easy money and access to huge credit lines (HELOC, etc) if they needed more to spend in the City of Sin (all in the name of having a good time and living for the here and now). That lifestyle however has now come to an end and the huge party bills have come due (for the consumer, the city, the state and nation).

As stated in previous posts, Las Vegas’s economy has been completely dependent on the discretionary spending of vacationers (Airlines, Hotels, Restaurants, Shows, Gambling, Drinking, Strip Clubs, etc) and the city lacks any real diversification.

Now that tourism & discretionary spending have declined (due to collapsing property values, sinking retirement plans, lack of credit and rising unemployment rates) gaming revenues have cratered, hotel occupancy rates have fallen, construction has ceased and and thousands of local layoffs have followed.

These unemployed locals quickly find that they have very limited options, as the entire hotel, gaming & construction industry is feeling the same economic pains and no one is hiring - the lack of industry diversification in the city has been a killer!

Currently, with economists and gvt officials talking about green shoots and lights at the end of the tunnel, many consumers are holding on to the false hope a recovery is right around the corner. Unfortunately they will be sorely disappointed. Yes, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but - unbeknownst to most - it's a high-speed, fully loaded freight-train barreling out of control.

Let's face it folks, the average American is now terrified about his/her financial future as the consumer wealth effect quickly disappeared in a puff of housing bubble released hot-air. Additionally, Joe-six pack is now in debt up to his eyeballs - and due to lack of new credit availability - he's unable to roll-over his debt as in years past. This has caused consumer spending (70% of the US economy) to fall sharply, leading to higher unemployment - feeding upon itself, etc.

Bottom line:

The Las Vegas economic situation is bad now, but we're no where near the end - unemployment will continue to rise as tourism flounders under the growing nationwide economic strain while the discretionary spending of those who do decide to come to Vegas continues to decline...

All this on top of our national economic crisis and the potential currency collapse (and 3rd world status) that lies in our future - induced by trying to bail out each/every one of our financial institutions and the attempt to print our way back to prosperity - it just won't work folks.

Other recent links on Las Vegas:

Las Vegas Homes $60 SF

Las Vegas: 81% Mortgage holders upside down

Las Vegas Housing Price Update

Snapshot: Las Vegas Commercial Real Estate

Las Vegas: Lady Luck has run out




Conservative Woodstock Rocks the Capital - Patriotic anti-big-government taxpayers blast through the million protester mark -


Must see picture here

Friday, September 18, 2009

Which Foreigners got the 1/2 Trillion Bernanke?

Rep Alan Grayson (D) Florida asks the tough questions - question that cause Bernanke to tap dance and lie through his teeth.

Alan to Bernanke: Which Foreigners Got the Fed's $500,000,000,000? A nervous Helicopter man answers back: I Don't Know.

Alan: Who authorized it and under what legal authority? Bernanke: FOMC under long standing legal agreements (BS)

Alan: A 20% increase in nominal dollar exchange rate at exactly the same time you handed out 1/2 trillion to foreigners - a coincidence? Bernanke lying through his teeth after a pause - yes!

Alan: Does FOMC have Constitutional authority to act in such a manner?

Excellent questioning - Rep Alan Grayson should be commended.

Hat tip Izzy

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Gerald Celente: Revolution next for U.S.

Interesting video where Gerald Celente - the most trusted name in trends - sits down with RT's Anastasia Churkina to talk about what the future holds for America during and after the Great Recession, gives advice to Obama, and forecasts the unexpected.

The talk of economic recovery is just a coverup

"We have people in power that if our forecasts were as wrong as theirs we would have been laughed out of business 30 years ago when we began. Why would people believe Ben Bernanke, why would they believe President Obama, why would they believe Larry summers or Timothy Geithner, when Timothy Geithner back in 2007 - when the markets started to unravel in August, when the credit crisis first hit - said everything was covered, no need to worry, plans were in place, the financial sector was sound, one after another their forecasts have been wrong, and they're wrong about the recovery. There is no recovery, its a coverup and the coverup is cheap money, and a stimulus package, a second one will just be more coverup. They're putting the burden on the taxpayer to cover up what has been done by the financial sector."

More Celente Predictions

link 1

link 2

Jim Rogers: We will have a currency market crisis

Video below seemed appropriate with Gold topping $1020 today.

Note: A currency crisis is not a matter of "if" - it's more a question of "when". Gold is your personal hedge against this future event.

Regarding a rising gold price: Don't think of gold as going up in value (it's value should remain somewhat constant), think of the price increase in gold as more of a currency event - the dollar going down in value requires more "devalued" dollars for the same tangible asset (gold - or silver - or even a gallon of gas or case of rum for that matter).

Food for thought and your key take away point for the day: Though many have tried, no country in the history of the world has EVER been able to print their way to prosperity - and the outcome for this US attempt will be no different.

All fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value - that of toilet paper

Interesting perspective below at link - record gold prices here to stay?

The Golden Staircase