Wednesday, October 27, 2010
- The highest unemployment rate in the nation (15% )
- Top city for personal debt (link)
- The highest bankruptcy rate in the nation (link)
- The highest foreclosure rate in the nation (link)
- The most stressful city in the nation (link)
- City where > 80% of homeowners are upside down (link)
Well, as of today - beep, beep, beep... Breaking news!!! Hot off the press - Another #1 label can now be added to the lineup:
Las Vegas is #1 - The Dumbest City
The site analyzed the nation's 55 metropolitan areas with 1 million or more residents, evaluating those markets based on nonfiction book sales tracked by research firm Nielsen BookScan; the number of libraries per capita; the ratio of colleges and universities; and the percentage of residents older than 25 with bachelor's and master's degrees.
If you tally all of those factors, Las Vegas ranks dead-last among the country's big cities. Of its 1.9 million residents, 14 percent earned bachelor's degrees, and 7 percent hold master's degrees. Las Vegans have bought 1.1 million adult nonfiction books year-to-date, or fewer than one tome per resident. (But hey, we'll go head to head against anybody on adult-video sales!)
Bottom line up front: The report noted a deceleration in home price growth rates in most of the areas surveyed. Take a look at the circled area in the chart below - notice anything? Hmm, could this be the beginning of another leg down for the housing market?
“A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figures, as compared to July, indicating that the housing market continues to bounce along the recent lows,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Over the last four months both the 10- and 20-City Composites show slowing growth, after sustaining consistent gains since their April 2009 troughs.
“The month-over-month growth rates tell the same story. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites saw a decline in the month of August as compared to July levels. The 10- and 20-City Composites fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Indeed, the housing market appears to have stabilized at new lows. At this time, it does not seem that any of the markets are hanging on to the temporary momentum caused by the homebuyers’ tax credits.”
Thursday, October 07, 2010
As the deficit grows so does the national debt, which is currently more than $13.3 trillion, according to official figures.
But the situation is actually much, much worse.
“Forget the official debt,” he tells Aaron in this clip. The “real” deficit - including non-budgetary items like unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and the defense budget - is actually $202 trillion, the professor and author calculates; or 15 times the “official" numbers.
“Congress has engaged in Enron accounting,” says Kotlikoff, who recently penned an op-ed for Bloomberg entitled: The U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know It...
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
Bottom line: Though short term corrections are called for in the charts below, the dollar will most certainly continue to fall while precious metals rise over the mid/long term.
Daily Dollar Chart - oversold (look at the Full STO and MACD) - a short-term bounce is due.
Weekly Dollar Chart - oversold (look at the Full STO and MACD) Again, a short-term technical bounce is overdue, but we're definitely headed lower for the mid to long term.. Note that 75-74 will be key support levels on the downhill slide followed by MASSIVE SUPPORT at 72-71 (If we fall below 71, the USD will be in completely uncharted territory - and at the LOWEST LEVELS EVER - all being relative of course because it's a global race to the bottom now)
Daily Silver Chart - Severely overbought (look at the Full STO and MACD) - a short-term pullback is certainly due. Note that historically when silver pulls back, it usually does so all the way back to its 50 or 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) - will we see the same upon the next pullback (~ $19 an oz)?
Weekly Silver Chart - Further confirmation of an overbought condition (look at the Full STO and MACD) - correction is due. Note silver's recent parabolic rise above it's 50 week Moving Average; also note that historical pullbacks show silver usually falls back to its 50 week MA (~$19 oz) - will this time be any different?
Daily Gold Chart - overbought (look at the Full STO and MACD)- a short-term correction is due. The nearly parabolic rise above the 50DMA is unsustainable, baring a looming currency collapse - but I don't think we're there yet
Weekly Gold Chart - further confirmation of an overbought condition(look at the Full STO and MACD)- a short-term pullback is due.
The currency and PM markets are leaning forward quickly - trying to factor in Helicopter Ben's looming QE2 monetary carpet bombing campaign - but they can't continue on like this in perpetuity and they will eventually undergo a short term reversal (always do).
Question of the day:
Should you enter here with a PM purchase?
Personally, I wouldn't, I'd wait for a nice pullback to the 50DMA, but that may take some time and patience, because as John Maynard Keynes stated: "the market can stay irrational longer than you and I can stay solvent" (Not saying I'm a proponent of his economic philosophy - merely that it's a wise comment)
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Note: some of my older posts can be found here:
Charts Feb 2010
Charts April 2009
$60SF Prediction - 2008
Las Vegas Economic Downturn Archives (thru 2008)
Las Vegas: A House of Cards - March 2006
Well, rather than trying convince you with additional verbiage that we've yet to hit bottom, I'll let the charts below do the talking - as each chart is worth a thousand words.
A few key points to keep in the back of your head while reviewing the charts however:
- Las Vegas has the highest unemployment rate in the nation
- Las Vegas has the highest bankruptsy rate in the nation
- Las Vegas has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation
- > 80% of Las Vegas homeowners are upside down
- The Homebuyer tax credit has expired
- Banks are holding back tens of thousands of homes
- The Las Vegas economy is completely dependent on a DEAD BUSINESS MODEL - consumer discretionary spending - something that is no longer available to the masses who are desperately trying to keep a job, a roof over their head and food on the table
The bottom IS NOT IN for Las Vegas and home prices will likely continue to fall for several more years... Though considered a long-shot losing bet at the time, when we take into consideration all the gloomy (current and future) aspects of this city's economy, even my $60SF median price forecast now seems optimistic.
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
The employment company CareerBuilder, in partnership with Harris Interactive, conducts an annual survey to determine the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck.
- In 2007, 43 percent fell into this category
- In 2008, the number increased to 49 percent
- In 2009, the number skyrocketed up to 61 percent
- In their most recent survey, the number exploded to a mind-shattering 77 percent
Yes, 77 percent of Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck. This means in our nation of 310 million citizens, 239 million Americans are one setback away from economic ruin.
link to report here
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Saturday, September 25, 2010
My Depression (a closing funny):
Over five thousand years ago, Moses said to the children of Israel, "Pick up your shovels, mount your asses and camels, and I will lead you to the Promised Land."
Nearly 75 years ago, (when Welfare was introduced) Roosevelt said, "Lay down your shovels, sit on your asses, and light up a Camel, this is the Promised Land."
Today, Obama has stolen your shovel, taxed your asses, raised the price of camels and mortgaged the Promised Land!
I was so depressed last night thinking about Health Care Plans, the economy, the wars, lost jobs, savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called a Suicide Hotline where I had to press 1 for English. I was then connected to a call center in Pakistan. I told them I was suicidal. They got excited and asked if I could drive a truck.....
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Baring hyperinflation, $5K gold sounds about right: Gold How high? (a Jan 2008 post)
News from early Friday Morning: Gold Climbs to $1,300 on Dollar Concern; Silver at 30-Year High
Excerpt: “Gold is showing there is no confidence in the dollar,” said Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva. Recent “data has been showing signs of a troubled economy. That’s why we’ve seen this huge buying for investors as a safe haven.”
Monday, September 20, 2010
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Ha! I think the better question would be: Should you stay in bubblicious dollar-denominated paper investments (someone else's liabilities)?
six minute video at link: (embedding was disabled):