Tuesday, March 21, 2006

A Hellish Outlook From the Heavens

I am by no means an Astrology buff, nor do I understand enough to actually know or believe anything about it, but this article really seems to have some merit. The individual mentioned (Henry Weingarten) heads the Astrologer Fund in NY and has an 80% accurate prediction record leading back to 1966. I believe, with a record like this, his opinion is definitely worth considering.

Mr. Weingarten was even interviewed on Neil Cavuto today and discussed his latest prediction--Here is the link to Neil's site. Once the site loads, if you don't already see the video link, search for "In the Stars"

Here is a link to the Web article, but I'll provide some of the relevant snippets below.

Henry Weingarten, heads the Astrologers Fund, a 28-year-old New York-based private advisory service for professional investors that tracks planetary movements and also factors in fundamental and technical market trends.

His outlook is frightening: "Hell is just ahead!" Within the next 30 to 40 days, he says, stocks will start a significant decline that over the next 100 days will push the Dow below 10,000 (versus Friday's close of 11,279) and the Nasdaq Composite under 2,000 (versus 2,306). Overall, Mr. Weingarten sees at least a 10% skid in each of these averages.

"Astrologically, we're moving into an extremely high-risk period," he says, adding that the readings he's getting from the planets, three in particular, are quite ominous.

On March 29, he explains, there will be a total solar eclipse, which will set in motion a dramatic planetary shift. Likewise, Pluto, a power planet, is changing direction. Further, Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune have formed a T-square, representing a major alignment that's coming at the same time as the eclipse. He also notes that the formation of Saturn opposite Neptune is reminiscent of the one that occurred during the 1989 real estate recession. Mr. Weingarten is already on record as having forecast a rash of real estate bankruptcies across the country over the next couple of years.

If you're about to write all this off as gobbledygook, thinking our astrologist ought to be carted off by the men in the white suits, stop! His record clearly merits a respectful contemplation of his views. He accurately predicted, two years in advance, the crashes that took place in the Japanese and Hong Kong markets and has made innumerable super calls on gold, which he thinks is on the way to $800 an ounce.

Likewise, on March 7 of last year, with the Dow at around 10,950, he forecast a major market decline. He was right on the mark. About six weeks later, on April 21, the Dow tested the 10,000 level. On April 21, with the Dow hovering around 10,000, he predicted a sizable May rally. Bull's-eye again. In May, the market boomed as the Dow rose about 500 points.

Aside from his astrological worries, Mr. Weingarten is concerned about the country's debt problems, which he sees worsening given the swelling, out-of-control budget deficit and the rising costs to maintain an increasingly expensive Iraq war. He also looks for a dollar crisis over the next year, abetted by a probable mid-year end to the Fed's current credit-tightening cycle and a likely upward revision of the Chinese yuan. Mr. Weingarten also points out that each of the last three Fed chairmen had to contend with a dollar crisis in the first three to six months of their terms.

His planetary readings also suggest a large likelihood of violence against American interests, either onshore or offshore, that could lead the country into an additional military conflict.
Mr. Weingarten further contends the American economy is not as strong as it's cracked up to be, and he believes the high energy costs will cut more deeply into corporate profits and add to inflationary pressures.

His advice on how to cope with the next 100 days: Own a little gold, be more conservative, have more cash and less risky Nasdaq stocks, and focus on companies with low debt and lots of cash. "If you want to waltz on the Titanic," he says, "you really have to know where the lifeboats are."


Out at the peak said...

Randy, are you going to hold a bear fund during this time?

Randy said...

Probably a good idea, but no.

How do you feel about his "prediction"?

Out at the peak said...

His prediction would almost line up with the Elliot Wave analysis that my friend told me about. They predicted the Dow would mingle over 11,000 and then shoot down. However, their timing has been off so far, but they have been right on the Dow surpassing 11,000.

It sounds like if someone is thinking about buying put options on some large caps, then now might be the time to do it.

When he predicted an event two years in advance, did he actually say it was going to happen in two years? Or did he predict it early and it eventually happened?

It is spooky that there was a similar line up from the 1989 housing crash compared to our current one. However, how many times has that pattern emerged and nothing happened?

I would need to see more raw data from this guy to draw a conclusion. But there are many more people than him calling for a day of reckoning. The market will move on consensus since the market is made up of thousands of people just constantly speculating.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm... perhaps I have a stigma of not wanting to believe astrology related analysis, but the bottom line is that a track record is a track record.

in any event, here's something that i consider to be quite a tangible ominous sign...

CFO of Freddie Mac abruptly resigns.

They are scrambling to find a permanent replacement. Obviously, an unexpected move.




Randy said...

Thanks guys… appreciate you posting up. I’ve been really busy at work and haven’t had the time to check. Agree with ya Peak…I would also like to see more data, but as MMafia pointed out--a track record is a track record. Anyway, I felt it was worth posting up.

Mmafia, thanks for pointing out the Freddie Mac issue. It’s quite possible Martin Baumann (the CFO) is aware of more accounting issues that ultimately he doesn’t want to be responsible for.