According to Housing Tracker, Las Vegas Inventory has been steadily building for many months, and has now surpassed the 20K mark--while prices have been declining slowly. I can attest to the fact the market is slowing and Inventory is building, as there are 12 homes for sale on my street alone. Some of these homes have gone through 3 separate realtors and are still sitting at reduced prices in a FSBO status.
With this said, I imagine foreclosures will become a significant issue in the future. Already, industry is reporting that rates of foreclosure in LV have greater than doubled YoY:
"In Las Vegas, this appears to be already happening. Foreclosure activity jumped to 3,246 in Q1 of 2006 from 1,480 in Q4 of 2005. Speculators who came late to the party are being washed out of the market."
There is widespread concern over the number of interest only and high negative amortization loans that had been issued by lenders in recent years as homebuyers sought to qualify for ever more expensive homes during the coastal markets' price boom of the last half decade.
Another issue I'd like to point out in this post: The 50 year mortgage has debut in California. Could this be a last ditch effort to keep the bubble alive?
Get Ready LAS VEGAS--the party may be over! (Vegas a house of cards bound to fall!)
4 comments:
I posted this on the Housing Panic blog. The 50yr term doesn't really reduce your payments a whole lot but most people ignore the actual math. For example, the difference in payment on a $300,000 at 6.5% between a 30, 40 or 50 yr mortgage is $100-200/mo. That's a very small savings compared to the overall interest and extra 10-20yrs of making payments. And frankly if $100-200/mo is a hardship then you're sretched too thin anyway. But, if you have no other choice its better than foreclosure.
Ooops! just read the link to the 50yr mortgage.....guess he does the math for you too!!
[C2Day, please get rid of the nasty homeprice ad]
Vegas has no idea what is about to happen. So many homes were purchased by illegal aliens there's going to be big business in tracking deadbeats. There's also going to be some serious predation going on; People illegally selling homes to other illegals. This is going to be one major Clusterf@ck. People getting kicked into the street even though they just poured their lifes savings into buying because they "bought" from a fellow illgal scammer. Phantom "owners" that walk away only to reappear in Phoenix or LA as their own "cousin." The banks don't have any mechanisms in place for any of this. It'll takes -years- to straighten out. Title insurers are going to go bankrupt then the ball really gets rolling. So, 3 years from now the house in question has been sitting vacant and unkempt, vandalized and the bank has been pretending on its' books that it has been recording income and /or assets. Now comes time to close out this particular house of thousands. The City is going to want the last 4 years of property taxes plus interest and fees. Lawyers everywhere with their hand in your back pocket and you gotta find a buyer who qualifies under the tighter rules who wants this piece of crap and not the 999 others in the same predicament. And the only investors are going to be cash investors because by then non owner occupied mortgages will be non conforming. Care to do the ROI on one of these? Taxes, repairs and high interest rates and low rents? Ans: really really low purchase prices -IF- you can find one of these sellers. There really are going to be examples of banks paying people to take houses. Yes, that bad in LV.
There was the homeless guy in FL with multiple mortgages, Illegals flipping in Vegas and thousands of Illegals in CA with HUD loans. Growing inventories in Phoenix, Vegas and across the country! I would say we are in big trouble. Most Americans are too busy with reality TV to see this train coming but the rest of the world does! Case and point the falling dollar. Track it here:
http://sites3.barchart.com/pl/gptc/default.asp
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