University economist says indicator foretells more weakness by middle of 2008
Las Vegas, regarded in the past as a city that has been somewhat immune to downturns in the national economy, failed to make Forbes.com's list of the nation's top 10 recession-proof cities.
Clark County business activity index peaked in October and has drifted lower since.
Recent activity has been "rather tepid," especially compared with the torrid pace of 2005 and 2006, said local economist Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas .
The county's tourism index turned in another "lackluster" peformance for February, even with an extra day in the month for leap year, he said. Evidence suggests that some weakness lies ahead, reflected in lower average room rates and slower convention bookings.
Clark County gross gaming revenue dropped 4 percent from the same month in the previous year to $866 million and taxable sales declined 3.1 percent to $2.76 billion
(SIDE NOTE: This really is Huge, because gambling revenues have fallen ONLY ONCE since 1970 -- in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks they dropped a mere 1 percent from 2001 to 2002.
Las Vegas, regarded in the past as a city that has been somewhat immune to downturns in the national economy, failed to make Forbes.com's list of the nation's top 10 recession-proof cities.
Clark County business activity index peaked in October and has drifted lower since.
Recent activity has been "rather tepid," especially compared with the torrid pace of 2005 and 2006, said local economist Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas .
The county's tourism index turned in another "lackluster" peformance for February, even with an extra day in the month for leap year, he said. Evidence suggests that some weakness lies ahead, reflected in lower average room rates and slower convention bookings.
Clark County gross gaming revenue dropped 4 percent from the same month in the previous year to $866 million and taxable sales declined 3.1 percent to $2.76 billion
(SIDE NOTE: This really is Huge, because gambling revenues have fallen ONLY ONCE since 1970 -- in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks they dropped a mere 1 percent from 2001 to 2002.
So far this year however, they've fallen 4 percent, the number of conventions {where the big money is at} has dropped 10.4 percent, and average daily room rates are down 3.8 percent in the first two months of 2008).
YoY Snapshot of several leading economic indicators below:
YoY Snapshot of several leading economic indicators below:
- New Home Permits (Down 80%)
- New Residents (Down ~20%)
- Total Employment (Down slightly)
- Unemployment Rate (up over 1%)
- New Home Sales (Down 30%)
- Commercial Permits (Down 50%)
- Existing Home Sales (Down 30%)
- Median New Home Price (Down 18%)
- Taxable Sales (Down 3%)
- Gaming Revenue (Down 2%)
- Visitor Volume (Down 1.5%)
- McCarran Passenger Volume (Down ~2%)
The Las Vegas Economic Downturn Has Started
Regards
Randy
2 comments:
No neighbors, no neighborhood
First residents of Henderson development hope slump won’t dash their dreams
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/may/21/no-neighbors-no-neighborhood/
Patrick,
Yes, I read that article in the LV Review Journal the day it came out.
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