Tuesday, May 20, 2008

UPDATED: US Economic Outlook 2008 -2011+ Briefing

Recently, as part of a broad based financial education class for younger folks (in their 20's-30's), I was asked to provide an economic outlook assessment/briefing to help these young adults gain a better understanding of the very complex problems the US economy is dealing with -- both current and future.

Other people will provide generic information w/regard to: balancing a checkbook, living within your means, using credit wisely, investment options, compounding interest, etc... My main objective is: try to make a very complex issue (economic problems/future forecasting) easy to follow, so that these young people can make wiser decisions based upon the knowledge they have gained.

With that said, I have yet to give the actual briefing (it's scheduled for early June), so I thought I'd take advantage of the available time and ask some of you smart folks to review and provide feedback w/regard to content, complexities, general flow/digestibility, accuracy, missing content, etc...

Please remember -- this briefing was tailored for folks who know little about the history of money, the broader economy, inflation or the many issues in play. Additionally, I plan to expound upon many of the points made in the briefing (when presenting it).

Would really appreciate your comments/feedback.

NOTE: briefing updated based on reader feedback and 207 reads today -- very much appreciated!

The following topic's were added/corrected:
- 20% annual growth = 4 year doubling of money supply
- Short history on Federal Reserve
- US Dollar as World's Reserve Currency
- Oil/OPEC issues (imbedded w/Dollar and Current/future outlook)

US Economic Outlook Briefing (Use full-screen mode for best results)


Thanks in advance!

Randy

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8 Comments:

At 5/20/2008 9:19 AM, Blogger Huntur said...

Hi Randy,

Great Slide Show! Scarey as hell too!! Should only be displayed on Halloween. hehe. I probably would have mentioned 3 things which I believe are fundamental to any intro (keeping your intended audience in mind). 1) The Fed, 2) Bretton Woods and last but not least (actually the most imp... OIL).

 
At 5/20/2008 12:29 PM, Anonymous ladygoldisliberty said...

Randy,

Nicely done. One observation, re: a doubling within five years.

With money supply increasing at 20%per annum, growth will lead to a doubling in just under 4 years:

100 x 1.2 = 120 year 1
120 x 1.2 = 144 year 2
144 x 1.2 = 172.8 year 3
172.8 x 1.2 = 207.36 year 4

We have very little time before our collective failure to tell the truth and understand the power of exponential functions creates a hyperinflationary Greater Depression.

207.36 x 1.2 = 248.832 year 5 (and only if 20% increases stay at that level)

There is reason to believe the rate of 20% will be 30-40% sooner than 2011.

As "huntur" posted, we need to mention OIL.

The August 15, 1971 closing of the gold (redeemability) window by Nixon, did not end the reserve currency status of the US dollar, since OPEC agreed to only sell oil in dollars and this "kept the bid" under the dollar since all industrialized nations needed oil.

Your audience will soon learn that the multi-decade backing of the US dollar by petroleum is ending since China, Japan, OPEC and others major dollar holders are experiencing the major loss of purchasing power created by our ill-advised monetary inflation.

When the de-pegging from the dollar, the pricing of oil in a basket of currencies including the dollar, is ultimately replaced by the pricing of oil in a currency-other-than-the dollar...the reserve-currency-status we have enjoyed since Bretton Woods I (1946) is over.

This spells: an end of empire.

As Jim Sincliar observed this week, we all have about seven years to learn Mandarin.

This will be occuring just as the boomer generation is retiring and "cashing out."

Forget the Chinese curse about "interesting times." Think Ray Bradbury: "...by the pricking of my thumb, something wicked this way comes."

 
At 5/20/2008 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randy,

Very good. This should be shown in every classroom.

- PDM

 
At 5/20/2008 9:03 PM, Blogger Randy said...

Huntur,

Added your suggested topics--hope it didn't make it too complicated/busy --Whacha think?


LadyGold,
Much appreciated math lesson!

In all honesty, I already knew this, but thought it would be too difficult for many to grasp

Added your suggestion on oil/dollar peg and world reserve currency.

Thanks for your comments/suggestion


PDM,

Always good to hear from you. Thank you for posting up!

Best regards to all of you

Randy

 
At 5/21/2008 12:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I haven't been able to open the presentation in IE or Firefox.

 
At 5/21/2008 7:52 AM, Blogger Huntur said...

Randy, I really like what you did with Page 7 on the Dollar. Any one of those bullets is really good fodder for a discussion.

Yes ladygold... "An End of Empire"

 
At 5/21/2008 12:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With great possibility of a US depression, there is no doubt the world economy will collapse as well.

Will this mean the start of World War III as tempers flare and the fingers are pointed at each other about who's fault is it? This seems very likely as today's events mirror the start of World War II.

 
At 5/27/2008 6:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi, Randy,
Here are my 2 cents if noobdy has mentioned it before:

The function of the US tax policy on interest, dividend and capital gains as an incentive/disincentive to economy. It is so ironic to see that on the one hand, the US has a negative saving rate, while on the other hand, savers are taxed on their interest, dividend earnings.
That the home mortgage interest is tax deductible is encouraging people to be in debt rather than saving!! Basically the tax system punishes savers and awards the spenders! People don't have the incentive to save. The IRS is simply cooperate with the bankers to entice people to be debt slaves.

Ellen

 

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