Las Vegas Housing Price Update - April 09 Post
Case-Shiller (CS) Home Price information was released yesterday (for Jan 09) and the data suggests the housing market has yet to find a bottom.
Extracts from yesterday's CS Press release:
New York, March 31, 2009 – Data through January 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 13 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 14 reporting declines in excess of 10% versus January 2008.The following chart was extracted from the same release and depicts the annual returns of their 10 and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. Note: the 20-City Composite wasn't started/tracked until the year 2000.
The three worst performing cities, in terms of annual declines, continue to be from the Sunbelt, each reporting negative returns in excess of 30%. Phoenix was down 35.0%, Las Vegas declined 32.5% and San Francisco fell 32.4%. Dallas, Denver and Cleveland faired the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
The rates of decline from the individual heights of each market are evidence of how much each market has taken back in terms of the gains earned in the past 10-15 years. All of the 20 metro areas are in double digit declines from their peaks, with nine of the MSA’s posting declines of greater than 30% and five of those (Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco and San Diego) in excess of 40%.
Moving on to Las Vegas
I created the following two charts using this newly released CS data. The first chart depicts Las Vegas home price history vs. the CS 10-City Composite (all the way back to 1987) and the second chart compares all three - starting in 2000. (Note LV's early lag, followed by a quicker run up and sharper decline)
Another source I like to use for tracking home price data is Housingtracker.net.
Their recent release (which includes SF homes AND condos) suggests that Las Vegas home inventories are increasing (nearing 30,000) and prices (when including condos) are falling even faster than the CS data/depictions above - A whopping 41% YoY decline - LV Housingtracker data.
And to think... There were 2,800 NOD's in my zip code ALONE last month - soon to add to these massive inventories...
Why all the new NOD's? Well, do you remember the Holiday foreclosure moratorium? It's over now and the notices are flying!
Anyway, I have many more LV Housing Charts (AND information regarding the 58% of upside-down mortgage holders in the Valley) - at this link
Additionally, in Febuary I wrote (LV housing crash continues) that the median home price in LV was down 53% from April 2006.
That number however has now increased to a 54.2% price drop since the peak (April 2006 Median=$344,900; Today's Median=$157,990)
New data from both Case-Shiller and Housing Tracker illustrate that we are no where near a bottom for Las Vegas home prices... Though mortgage rates are quite low and home sales seem to be picking up steam, the economy is still in a deep funk and local unemployment is rising swiftly/significantly (LV Unemployment currently at 10.1%).
These issues above coupled with increasing foreclosures, tighter lending standards and a huge new wave of Alt-A Mortgage resets - in the Hundreds of Billions nationwide; used largly in the bubble states - will prevent us from finding a floor for quite some time.