Saturday, March 08, 2008

Final US Economic End-Game

I hope this post serves a useful purpose and helps to shed some light on what may potentially lie in store for our economy/way of life.

Today, with bad new all around, many make attempts to dissect the individual aspects of the myriad of economic problems that contribute to our problematic US economic condition, but few really try to think ahead and analyze the final end-game. With this post, I hope to do just that, and will attempt to answer the following six questions:

1) What is happening with regard to our economy?
2) Why would our monetary policy-masters want a weaker dollar?
3) Where do we go from here?
4) What long-term exit strategy can we expect to see from our monetary policy masters?
5) How does inflation help the Government and what are the impacts to its people?
6) How will people cope with reduced purchasing power and a much lower standard of living?

So, what is happening with regard to our Economy?

Though I’ve been talking about it since 05 (and many early on considered me a knucklehead for my non-conformist viewpoint), I think it is now becoming common knowledge that the largest speculative bubble in our world’s history (housing bubble) has popped and its reverberations are being felt across the globe:

Hedge funds are collapsing, bank write-downs are growing, toxic waste marked-to-model Commercial Paper (CP) sitting in off-balance sheets cannot be offloaded, credit markets are completely locked up, home foreclosures (the catalyst to all these problems) are growing, consumer spending (70% of our economy) is waning, consumer inflation is raging, construction spending is down, the dollar is falling off a cliff, job losses are increasing, state revenue is falling—many are slashing budgets, and the list goes on…

The Fed and our Plunge Protection Team (PPT) understand that deflation is taking hold and they are operating in emergency mode... In a brazen attempt to prevent a collapse of the entire banking/financial systems (and hence the US Economy) “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke has officially sacrificed the dollar in the hopes of printing/inflating our way out of this financial mess -- to prevent an economic depression.

Take a look at the US dollar chart below -– NEVER in our country’s history has the US Dollar been weaker. Why so low? Our policymakers are covertly demanding a weak dollar.


But why would our monetary policy-masters want a weaker dollar?

Well, as I see I see it, there are several reasons:

A devalued dollar will (over time) allow the United States to 1) eliminate much of its foreign debt through devalued payback 2) pay for future (currently $60 Trillion) in un-funded obligations through cheaper payouts 3) reduce US labor costs in the global marketplace –- making US manufacturing competitive in the world again, and 4) a side effect -- lower the US standard of living through massive inflation -- ultimately stoking a grass roots demand for some relief and opening the doorway for successful implementation of a new “stable” currency to replace the ailing dollar –- The AMERO.

Additionally, somewhere along the way, we will probably experience a new war to: 1) secure natural resources, 2) create US jobs to support the military/industrial complex, and 3) help to take our minds off the economic misery we are all experiencing.

So, where do we go from here?

As previously stated, the PPT is attempting to fight deflation with new inflation and the Fed’s monetary printing presses are gearing up to start working overtime. (NOTE: Money=Debt and lack of new consumer/corporate debt means less new money to service older debt, which means declining GDP, defaults and deflation)

Today there are > $13 Trillion Dollars circulating the globe and M3 Growth (expanding US Money Supply) is increasing at an annual 18% rate (see chart below).

M3 -- US Money Supply Growth rate & US Dollars in Circulation
(Note: as an aside, only ~ $400 Billion of this, ~ 3%, is available in cold hard cash in the US -- most of these $13T dollars are 1’s & 0’s on a computer hard-drive somewhere—God help us if we experience banking runs…)


Consumer inflation typically lags M3 growth (those with new dollars first can buy more than those who receive dollars later in the game), but we know inflation in the US is currently running ~ 12% today (next chart below -- measuring inflation w/metrics abandoned in the 1980’s– abandoned to understate inflation, reduce Gvt. entitlement payouts over time and to overstate GDP).

Annual Consumer Inflation Chart – The red line illustrates what our Gvt wants you to believe (inflation ~ 4%); the blue line is our actual inflation rate (~12%); Remember, consumer inflation lags new monetary creation, so you can be certain (after looking at M3 again—the 1st chart) that consumer inflation has only one way to go –- UP!


What long-term exit strategy can we expect to see from our monetary policy masters?

Based on what we have just learned above (that monetary growth and consumer inflation are rising, and that the Fed/PPT have officially sacrificed the US dollar to prevent a depression), if we now gaze into our crystal ball and look out at the next 5 years or so, what should/can we expect to see?

Logic reasoning leads us to believe it has now become official Government policy to try to inflate our way out way out of this financial crisis, so lets assume a master plan exists to bail out numerous banks/financial institutions and rescue the bond, housing and various other markets. Let’s then go on to assume a plan exists to eventually ramp up numerous government infrastructure and military/industrial projects to promote US job growth (in the midst of our deep/dark recession).

To keep the math easy, and assuming all of the above takes place, let’s now presume (being conservative here) M3 Growth averages 20% over the next 5 years to fund all these new government efforts… Therefore, in 5 years time, M3 (worldwide US money supply) will have doubled and M3 will equate to ~ 27 Trillion US Dollars. Note: by that time inflation will be raging and the dollar’s purchasing power will be halved (if not more by then; it really depends on foreign dollar holders—will they cash before then?).


How does this inflationary effect help the Government and what are the impacts to be felt by the people?

By continuing to understate inflation (as you saw in the Inflation graph above) over the next 5 years and more, the US government will be able to pay all its currently un-funded obligations (Social Security, Pension Benefits, Military Pay/retirements, Medicare obligations, even foreign held debt) with significantly devalued dollars—costing the government far less over time.

In other words (lets use a Social Security recipient as an example): Grandma will still get her entitled (currently unfunded) $1,200-1,400 monthly Social Security Check (w/annual increases tied to Gvt's lower CPI rate), but if her utility bills have doubled and she now pays $8 a gallon for Gas, $7.50 for a gallon of Milk, $5 for a loaf of Bread, $4 for a pound of Chicken and $10 for a “value meal” at McDonalds, her purchasing power has been reduced substantially. The government still pays its obligation, but with devalued dollars and w/severely reduced purchasing power.

Thus: Inflation (monetary growth of printed dollars) has eroded unfunded Gvt debt/obligations, but at the cost of American purchasing power and standard of living—it will have dropped significantly. Ultimately, over time, the Gvt. actually pays out less than that which it really owes—through devalued dollars (it’s all smoke and mirrors).


So, how will people cope with reduced purchasing power and a much lower standard of living?

With inflation and unemployment raging, tens of millions of Americans will not be able to make ends meet and cutbacks in lifestyle will become the norm.

Americans feeling the pinch will have to eventually downsize (much smaller house or apartment -- to reduce utilities/costs; take on a room mate or rent out a room, purchase a more fuel efficient car; drive MUCH less -- car-pooling will become popular, eating out will stop--it will only be for the well-off; families will eat cheaper foods at home, clothing will be used until completely worn out, churches and aid agencies will become much more involved in the struggling/average American's life, etc...)

Bottom Line: life will become much more expensive/difficult than that which we know today. We could even see oil/fuel shortages due to geopolitical unrest/war, and food shortages could be an issue too -- world food stores are currently at a 50-60 year low with no relief in sight. (Global food crisis—credit crunch could pale in comparison)

Anyway, you ask: What then happens to society?

If you haven’t already done so, read the following links for some thoughts on the issue:

Social Implications of a Significant Economic Downturn
Our long-term way Ahead:

There is however, potentially very good news that will follow this EXTREMELY difficult period in America: Over time, a much lower US standard of living and a significantly devalued US dollar will make it much cheaper to manufacture in the US again, and 15-25 years from now our massive debt loads will have subsided and all those outsourced jobs will eventually come back home. Then we will be able to do more than sell each other cheaply manufactured goods -- we will actually make them again. For more on this subject, read my Jan 06 article: American Wake Up Call


Bottom line to this article:

I think our day of reckoning has finally arrived. We Americans have lived too comfortably for far too long by sucking up 80% of the world's savings and then we wanted more, so we racked up ENORMOUS personal and Gvt Debt loads that must be paid -- paid through Gvt. monetization, massive dollar devaluations and a much lower standard of living.

As stated previously, the PPT is fighting deflation w/inflation, so we will probably experience concurrent deflation and inflation – if/until the deflationary forces are won over.

I expect, over the next 5 years or so, consumer inflation to be completely out of control, but there is nothing the Fed can do about it -- without throwing the economy into a depression.

Ultimately, the US dollar will plummet in value and its fate as the defacto "World Reserve Currency" could soon be brought to question -- but that might be part of our monetary policy master's "master-plan" anyway, as it will allow the Amero to slip right into its place without an American revolt.



I hope this article provided you with some nourishing "food for thought".

Best regards

Randy

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21 Comments:

At 3/08/2008 7:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randi, I've been reading your blog for a while now and I find you extremely intelligent. I too believe that a North American Union is coming soon; the dollar continues to fall so gvt can usher in the Amero without contest. My financial knowledge is limited so my question to you is this: What's the best thing to so with money in a savings/CD account? Would it be better to move these funds into the stock market?

Thanks,
AF

 
At 3/08/2008 8:22 PM, Anonymous JonahTrainer said...

During times like these ensconcing oneself within a golden forcefield is about the best thing to do. During deflation cash is Emperor. Gold is the ultimate form of cash as it cannot be debased. At all times and in all places Gold remains Money. For more check out: http://www.RunToGold.com.

 
At 3/08/2008 9:01 PM, Blogger Jetstar said...

Greetings:

I have my own business and have plenty of work: enough to employ 10 to 15 people:

I find myself turning the work away as it's not worth it anymore.

The TAXES on my labors give me no incentive anymore: so as a result I screw off more and more every day!

This is NOT!!!like me as I have always been a WORKER but the wind has been taken from my sails!...by TAXES!!!!!!!!

I got myself out of DEBT about 10 years ago!...house to!

I can afford a real nice car but my Dodge Neon is on it's Second engine and transmission runs real good!

The SALES TAX alone on a new car PAID for the replacement engine & transmission including the LABOR to install!!!!!

When you figure in the $$$ LOSS driving a new car off the 'showroom' floor I can re-engine/transmission the Neon multiple times!!!

I just carry Liability: who cares if it gets banged up!!

Every day I work the Gov't gets about 600 bucks in TAXES!!! from me but NO MORE! I have cut back almost 95% no kidding! this is TRUTH!

Turkey Season opens in a few weeks and you can bet that I will be in my blind:everyday! same thing when Deer Season opens in the fall

I USED to try and ALERT my Neighbors of what happening but just as long as NASCAR, American Idol, Dancing with the stars, Foot ball, Baseball,Golf, Brittiny etc was on TV they did not give a RATS ASS! ............till NOW!!!!

SCREW them!

They are on the TITANIC SCREAMING for help!!!......... I am on the LIFEBOAT!
watching the 'free' Entertainment!

Thanks
Dave

 
At 3/09/2008 1:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have for a long time wondered what would happen if by some public initiative the economic powers were forced to give an honest accounting of true inflation. Seems to me the whole 'end-game'stands or falls with the understatement of true inflation, this is the crux of the sham. Granted, the Powers would resist with utmost force and the general public is extremely ignorant so an initiative is not likely forthcoming, but as a hypothetical exercise, what would your thoughts be?

Keep up the good work, many need educating...

 
At 3/09/2008 3:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is it not all planned by Bushneoco to let the US government go bankrupt? So that all these obligations for social security, pension plans, et cetera can be privatized by corporations? If USA Inc as a whole goes belly up Argentina style, will all debt just be written off and leave the (international) creditors with the bag? And then USA Inc will be restarted ruled by corporations with a severely crippled powerless government contolled by the rich corporate elite to guard their interests? Is that not why Bernanke keeps pumping money in the banks? With the intention to keep these mighty corporations afloat while the public can lend themselves into bankruptcy and ultimately into deep financial slavery? That is the masterplan in a nutshell, right? Best investment advise may be not gold and silver but tin cans with a long shelve life.

 
At 3/09/2008 5:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First time reader, nice site. For those who want to save their investments from financial ruin, there are now some good exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that you can buy to invest in Gold (GLD, IAU), Silver (SLV), Oil (OIL), and Agricultural products (MOO). I just rolled my old 401k into a self-directed IRA and moved everything out of regular stocks & bonds and into ETFs as well as some good commodity stocks such as gold mining, coal, uranium, plus Chinese solar panels, double-hulled oil tankers. I highly recommend the investment newsletters available through Agora Financial (www.agorafinancial.com); I subscribe to their "Outstanding Investments" newsletter and love it.

J.A.
Rocklin, Calif.

 
At 3/09/2008 8:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The biggest reason for inflation is to take savings from those that have it and move it to those that do not. Imagine we were a totally agrarian society and we got paid in empty buckets by our town elders once a year. They could be presented to the granary when we needed actual food. The town elders realized early that if they reduce the size of buckets each year slightly they could take some of the excess production and pay themselves without anyone knowing. Most people in the society tried to consume less than they produced and figured they were buildng up a store of savings. However the town elders built themselves a gigantic new town hall so it would be the envy of all the towns. They realized they needed to accelerate the desizing of buckets. They knew that even though as a society that they were not saving as regard to claims but there were still excess savings of people over the years that were still untapped.

My point is thinking in terms of money is a side issue. There is just production, consumption, savings and borrowing. If we are overconsuming we have to be eating into our savings as a society. If society has not got it they are taking yours

 
At 3/09/2008 8:47 AM, Blogger Lebieque said...

Nice effort, well thought through. However with a tiny flaw, or perhaps rather wishful thinking with regard to, and I quote "....manufactured goods -- we will actually make them again."
Once you renege on your obligations by means of political overweight (bullying) you've figuratively signed your own death warrant, forfeiting any possibility of turning the clock back in the hearts and minds of your fellow men. In the eighties America, as leading economy, bit the bullet and corrected accumulated mismanagement by doing the right thing, showing leadership in what is today seen as the Paul Volker treatment. Renewing trust and respect. Can you see this happening with the current leadership, steeped in mismanagement, extravagance and political cowardice…?

 
At 3/09/2008 10:28 AM, Anonymous Canadian Silver Bug said...

You might think that the result of the destruction of the dollar "must" lead to the creation of the Amero, and it will not inspire an American revolution.

You however don't take into account that Canada may not be so willing to subsidize a Bankrupt U.S. by joining in the Amero and putting our still good credit to risk.

The Euro is on the brink of failure due to the stress created by debtor nations like France, Spain, England vs healty ecconomies like Germany. The stresses range from numerous countries bumping up against the imposed limit on account deficits and the need for drastically different interest rate policy for the situation in different countries.

This has to be a warning to any government and sane citizens that a common currency is not the panacea for mismanagement, a gold standard would be much more desirable than a new regional fiat currency. The Amero will just allow the same problems to arise and probably some new ones.

 
At 3/09/2008 3:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 7:23 Said:

"What's the best thing to do with money in a savings/CD account?"

Guns, ammo, canned and freeze dried food in that order.

Keep your powder dry and shoot straight.

 
At 3/09/2008 3:18 PM, Anonymous Camadian silver bug said...

I fear that anon 7:23 is not that far off reality.

I would also suggest a good supply of open polinated sees and a solar oven.

http://www.aaoobfoods.com/nonhybridseed.htm#top

http://www.sustainableguide.com/

 
At 3/09/2008 3:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randy,
Just read your latest post. This tells me that people will flock to gold coins world wide. The fed has to see this coming. I'm not going to mention conspiracy theory but don't you think that the amero bunch that will be running the contienent by then will outright outlaw trading or buying with gold? I see this as a real possibility.
ralph energy@chatt.net

 
At 3/10/2008 8:26 PM, Blogger Randy said...

WOW! Set a new record # of hits with this post--nearly 10,000 in a couple of days.

Anyway, I've been out of pocket so please accept my apologies for the late responses.

BTW: My thanks to all for posting up your thoughts.

- Anon 7:23--Thanks for the kind words. Personally, I would stay away--DOW 9K by end of year.

- JonahTrainer--Agree Gold, but I like silver too. Please see my Post Gold How High?

- JetStar--Dave, Couldn't agree more--Our Tax Policy needs a complete overhaul

- Anon 1:11--Answer: Possibly could cause the End of the Federal Reserve Banking System

- Anon 3:18--Possible, but I think my scenario is more probable

- Anon 5:10--Thanks for the advice

- Anon 8:18--Good Point

- Lebieque--Absolutely no way Bernanke vould invoke Volker type policy--We would fall into the worst DEPRESSION EVER. POlus, Bernanke is merely a policy puppet these days--His strings are pulled by others.

-Canadian--The people won't have a choice. It will be forced by TPTB

- Anon 3:06--Guns, ammo, canned and freeze dried food in that order. Keep your powder dry and shoot straight. -- Well Said

-Anon 3:55--Possibly, but when outlawed, an underground trading system will follow. Just like Guns, people will not give up their gold.

thanks again--for your comments and readership


Randy

 
At 4/15/2008 7:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Scared but smarter

 
At 10/26/2008 3:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great blog you have here. I agree with what you have to say. What led to all our economic problems was unmonitored goverment greed pure and simple. Check out my blog at
http://goldvseconomiccrisis.blogspot.com/
Vote on who is responsible for this catastrophic financial failure!
ALL COMMENTS WELCOME.

 
At 3/08/2009 11:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Randi,

I found this to be so intriguing that I reread it twice.

You have done what very few people can do: You made your point coherently and rationally. In doing so you've made me question some of my most fundamental beliefs. Thank you.

 
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At 2/02/2010 8:36 PM, Blogger Metalda said...

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At 2/05/2010 1:49 AM, Blogger davidbaer said...

5. Think about this.
If you really did find a working formula that made you, say $1,000 a week online on average and it kept producing income no matter what, would you want to sell that idea to a bunch of noobs for $47 a pop and expect to retire on the proceeds? No way, man! It does not compute. It does not add up. And it does not make any sense to do that. I certainly don’t go shouting from the rooftops how I make my money online. Hell, I don’t want the competition taking a slice of my pie and neither would anyone who really does make good cash online.
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At 2/12/2013 5:44 PM, Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

This giant financial game will end but who knows when and how bad it will be.

 
At 3/27/2014 12:32 PM, Anonymous PENNY STOCK INVESTMENTS said...

Excellent post

 

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