Saturday, December 06, 2008

US Unemployment Rate Reality

Earlier in the week I discussed with you how our publicly released unemployment statistics are completely bogus (See this link for the post).

Well, new figures were released just today and even the "officially released" stats weren't pretty:

US employers axed 533,000 jobs in November, the biggest
monthly cut since 1974 - bringing the US jobless rate to a 15-year high - now at 6.7% from 6.5% in October.

"Official" Unemployment Rate circled in red below
note: click on any of the pictures for a better view

Now, if you recall from my earlier post, the official (6.7%) U.S. unemployment figure (above chart) is based on the BLS U-3 data and excludes: Marginally attached workers, Discouraged workers, Persons employed part time for economic reasons, etc.

However, if you look at the BLS U-6 data (chart below) it includes all these missing pieces - see last line (circled 12.5% unemployment rate) - this figure is closer to reality

Moving ahead one step further:

John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics has done an excellent job of capturing all the quietly manipulated data changes made throughout the years and he reconstructs many "Officially released Stats" to represent what they should be - had the manipulators not skewed the data.

John's chart below includes: U-3 (red), U-6 (grey) and the SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate (blue) which reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" which were defined away during the Clinton Administration. These estimates are then added to the existing BLS U-6 unemployment figure.

Bottom line:

The "TRUE" US unemployment rate is much higher than that which the gvt admits to... It's actually somewhere between 13-16%.

Therefore, for a more truthful "ballpark" estimate, I suggest you take whatever figure you hear in the media and multiply it by 2 - then you'll be much closer to reality.

Closing note:

The nationwide unemployment rate during the Great Depression was ~ 25% (note: the "U-3" data-skew didn't exist back then). Currently, based on our worst-case measurements above, it looks like we may already be 2/3 of the way there.



No comments: