Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Interesting mortgage delinquency stats

The Comptroller of the Currency's 42-page housing report - released in late June 09 yet providing data for the first qtr 2009 (link) is a review of performance statistics for 34 Million 1st mortgage loans totaling > $6 Trillion (approximately 64 percent of all mortgages outstanding in the United States).

Chart below (click for larger image) is a high level snapshot of some of the data provided

Bottom line/take-away: if this data accurately represents all 1st Liens across the US then >10% of all mortgages were delinquent, seriously delinquent or already in foreclosure by the end of March 2009 - a 130% YoY increase in serious delinquencies and a 75% YoY increase in foreclosures.

One can only imagine how bad the data looks for 2nd notes.

Question: Did I miss any "Green shoots" in the data above? Hope not, because I would really hate to misrepresent the Comptroller of the Currency's report.


Anonymous said...

And here is how it all began. Very interesting interview transcript from:


BILL MOYERS: Is it possible that these complex instruments were deliberately created so swindlers could exploit them?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Oh, absolutely. This stuff, the exotic stuff that you're talking about was created out of things like liars' loans, that were known to be extraordinarily bad. And now it was getting triple-A ratings. Now a triple-A rating is supposed to mean there is zero credit risk. So you take something that not only has significant, it has crushing risk. That's why it's toxic. And you create this fiction that it has zero risk. That itself, of course, is a fraudulent exercise. And again, there was nobody looking, during the Bush years. So finally, only a year ago, we started to have a Congressional investigation of some of these rating agencies, and it's scandalous what came out. What we know now is that the rating agencies never looked at a single loan file. When they finally did look, after the markets had completely collapsed, they found, and I'm quoting Fitch, the smallest of the rating agencies, "the results were disconcerting, in that there was the appearance of fraud in nearly every file we examined."


BILL MOYERS: Who's covering up?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Geithner is charging, is covering up. Just like Paulson did before him. Geithner is publicly saying that it's going to take $2 trillion — a trillion is a thousand billion — $2 trillion taxpayer dollars to deal with this problem. But they're allowing all the banks to report that they're not only solvent, but fully capitalized. Both statements can't be true. It can't be that they need $2 trillion, because they have masses losses, and that they're fine.


BILL MOYERS: Are you saying that Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of the Treasury, and others in the administration, with the banks, are engaged in a cover up to keep us from knowing what went wrong?

WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely.


WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely, because they are scared to death. All right? They're scared to death of a collapse. They're afraid that if they admit the truth, that many of the large banks are insolvent. They think Americans are a bunch of cowards, and that we'll run screaming to the exits. And we won't rely on deposit insurance. And, by the way, you can rely on deposit insurance. And it's foolishness. All right? Now, it may be worse than that. You can impute more cynical motives. But I think they are sincerely just panicked about, "We just can't let the big banks fail." That's wrong.

Randy said...

Powerful post - thanks Anon