Thursday, September 03, 2009

Las Vegas homes for $60 SF?

Last year, I posted that LV Median home prices would ultimately revert back to $60 a Square Foot (link to Sept 2008 post). At that time, approximately 45% of LV homeowners were upside down.

Since that time however credit conditions have tightened, thousands of mortgages have reset and LV joblessness has exploded to an "official" rate of 13% - causing a tsunami of foreclosures and in-turn a continual fall in home values. Currently 81% of LV Mortgage Holders are Upside Down and there is no relief in sight.


Based on recent data from Housingtracker.net, which is a combined look at condo and single-family home statistics, Las Vegas's median home values are down 33% YoY and down a whopping 59% from the peak in April 2006 (April 2006 Median=$344,900; Today's Median=$142,500).

Take a look at the chart below (I used price data from the same site). Though the rate of price declines has slowed, prices are indeed still falling.



OK, nice chart you say - but it only illustrates sales price data - I thought we were discussing price per SF in LV?

Good catch - but I was merely pointing out price trend data above.

Let's now look at Median value per square foot (the Mid-point of the value of all homes in Las Vegas, per square foot - This is derived by taking the Zestimate for each home and dividing it by the homes square footage) extracted from Zillow just today - understand Zillow is not an exact science, but it's a good indicator nonetheless.



Bottom line: Valley-wide Median value - according to zillow - is $83 today, but note the direction of the lines from both charts - prices are still falling!

Here is a nice home for $58 SF (Link)

How about this one: .28 acres and 4,100SF for $57 a SF (Link)


Closing: though LV is not quite there yet with overall median price levels, many deals can be found in this $60 price range, and I have no doubt that (over time) my earliest forecasts will be met with ease.

Say what you wish to refute this post, but I have been battling differing realtor opinions and the naysaying optimists since I started this blog back in 2005 and (thus far anyway) I've been far more right than I have been wrong - but only time will tell.

Best
Randy

2 Comments:

At 9/03/2009 7:47 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

Randy, long time reader, love the blog...but I've got to offer this from my "brain dump" entry, on my blog:

http://bxcapricorn.blogspot.com/search?q=brain+dump

Will a Housing Bottom Lead Us Out?

Ah….the housing “experts”…they’re collectively like a fat guy wearing a football jersey. They might dress the part, but the oversized shirt just serves to hide the obvious, while also providing better nacho crumb collection.

http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jan2009/bw20090129_641584.htm

Note: Might be better off sticking with John Burns (of John Burns Real Estate Consulting) and Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, when it comes to housing market predictions.

Note: If you really want to get deep into the current state of the housing market, go here:

http://www.campbellsurveys.com/AgentSummaryReports/AgentSurveyReportSummary-June2009.pdf

This survey PDF was compiled by surveying those that are knee-deep in the Real Estate market, day-in and day-out, not the PR representative of the NRA. The result is a no-spin, clear look at the now fractured RE market in the US. I consider the US Real Estate market to now exist as four markets. They are:

- Damaged REO

- Move-In Ready REO

- Short Sales

- Non-distressed properties.

Which is why the statistics on Housingtracker.net are no longer worth considering, as they once were, and why I’m getting more than a little annoyed at pundits that make doomsday predictions based on generalized housing data from:

http://www.housingtracker.net/

Hope this modifies your viewpoint, not that it matter to me personally, but I felt you deserve exposure to the Campbell's Survey.

 
At 9/26/2009 10:16 PM, Blogger Dale said...

I'm puzzled. The recent HousingTracker home price data (median) seems moderately downtrending Jan-Jun09 (~15% loss). On the other hand, your Zillow derived plots for median/sqft seem more steeply downtrending for Jan-Jun09 (~20-25% loss). Are my estimates wrong? If not, why does dividing by sqft change the slope so dramatically?

Note that, for the 5836 Maria Del Mar St property (see your link), the asking price is $237.9k while the ZESTIMATE is $455.5. Seems quite often that the recent ZESTIMATE is higher than asking price.

 

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