Sunday, February 21, 2010

Nevada Housing Charts

Dollarcollapse accidently linked this older (Feb 2010) Housing Charts post - Please see this link for the latest Housing Charts - LAS VEGAS Housing Charts Posted 9/11/10


Nevada Housing Charts

I've been arguing (correctly I might add) with Nevada housing optimists for years, explaining that we would undergo the largest housing / economic bust in history, but the vast majority were reluctant to pull their heads out and they would blindly regurgitate ignorant (positive) data snippets overheard on the radio, news or by their local neighborhood realtor - completely oblivious to economic reality and bent on hearing / believing that a fairytail future was once again possible for Nevada (Las Vegas in particular).


Even with data to back it up, many still try to refute the obvious, but allow me to try once again...

Let's put it this way: with > 80% of Las Vegas mortgage holders now upside down (link), the second highest unemployment rate in the nation (> 13% official rate - link), tourism, gaming and tax receipts in a complete free fall, and foreclosures rising. I see no end in sight (till around 2012 /13) for our local housing collapse...

Additionally, the Fed is the ONLY buyer of mortgage debt these days and with the massive monetary printing taking place, buyers of US Gvt debt (mostly foreign Gvts like China, Japan, etc) will DEMAND higher rates - leading to higher mortgage rates and lower affordability in the coming years...

Though I did (back in Dec 2008) articulate that housing sales numbers would increase, it's a false flag and prices will still continue to fall as 1) credit continues to tighten 2) unemployment increases 3) Alt A mortgage resets begin to pick up steam (through 2012) 4) uptick in strategic foreclosures (those who can afford to pay, but still walk away) 5) banks begin to unload the tens of thousands of foreclosed homes that are being held off the market.


With all that digested, lets look at some new housing charts for Nevada:

US vs Nevada Home Prices




Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno Median Price Data




Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno Median Price Per Square Foot




Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno % Sold at a Loss




Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno- Foreclosure Sales as % of Market





One More: Las Vegas - Sales Price Per Square Foot



Approaching my $60 per SF price forecast- initially made in 2008 (Link)

Have a great weekend!

Randy

5 Comments:

At 2/21/2010 12:24 PM, Blogger 45north said...

Randy your anguish over the economic situation is real but spare me the photoshopped image!

Ty Andros says Now is not the time to hide or stick your heads in the sand

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/andros/2010/0219.html

speaking of credit contract scroll down the link and look at the chart:
Record Credit Contraction!
this is serious!

I see no end in sight (till around 2012 /13) for our local housing collapse...
Randy, I see unemployment getting worse than 13% in Nevada.

My mother died in the summer of 2008 and my sisters have just sold the house in Toronto. I expect that house prices in Toronto will go higher for the next month or two but then crash as in the US. Better a year too soon than a day too late.

 
At 2/21/2010 3:30 PM, Blogger 45north said...

better (to sell)

 
At 2/21/2010 7:39 PM, Blogger Rob said...

good post, but the picture is pretty juvenile.

 
At 2/21/2010 8:18 PM, Blogger Randy said...

45North - thanks for the link, I'll read it tonight. As for Nevada Unemployment - I completely agree with you -- we'll certainly see greater than a 13% "official" unemployment rate in the future.

Rob and 45North - the picture was intended to keep this post on the lighter side and based on the large number of people who have downloaded it from this site, I think many may have enjoyed the laugh.

I will however delete the picture if anyone else chimes in here agreeing that pulling it is the right thing to do.

Thanks
Randy

 
At 2/22/2010 2:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep it up Randy.

Justin_n_IL

 

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