Saturday, August 15, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
New Record for US Foreclosure Filings in July!
Miamiherald: Foreclosure filings were up 32 percent from the same month last year, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. More than 360,000 households nationwide, or one in every 355 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in July.
That's the highest monthly level since the foreclosure-listing firm began publishing the data more than four years ago.
Additionally:
WSJ: Nevada had the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the 31st-straight month - with one in every 56 housing units getting a foreclosure filing in July.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
True US unemployment rate >20%
The official 9.4% U.S. unemployment figure, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and spouted about by most of the talking heads in the Media, is based on the BLS U-3 standard which excludes: Marginally attached workers, Discouraged workers, Persons employed part time for economic reasons, etc.
According to the BLS:
The BLS U-6 standard (which you can locate by digging further into the BLS data) includes most of these missing pieces (addressed above), providing a more accurate depiction of the true nationwide unemployment situation, but U-6 also has shortcomings which we'll touch on later.
Note: Chart below includes all the "current" yet various BLS unemployment calculations; U-3 and U-6 are the circled numbers - click pic for larger image
So, U-3 and U-6 both have shortcomings, how do we go about finding the true U.S. unemployment figure?
John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics has a more accurate methodology and has worked to capture a variety of quietly manipulated data changes that the Gvt has made throughout the years. John then uses this data to reconstruct a picture of the true unemployment situation - what it would really look like had the statistical manipulators not skewed the data.
John's chart below includes the BLS U-3 data (red), U-6 data (grey) and the SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate (blue) which reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for "discouraged workers" which were defined away during the Clinton Administration. These estimates are then added to the existing BLS U-6 unemployment figure to provide us with a True unemployment picture - which is > 20 today.
So why would the government lie to us and use the U-3 data for unemployment reporting when it severely distorts the truth?
Well folks, I hate to break the news to you, but the Gvt doesn't want you to know the truth... YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!
By continually tweaking, publishing and reporting severely skewed data (like unemployment, inflation, GDP and money supply growth, etc) the masses remain ignorant, oblivious, and much happier than they otherwise would be had they known the truth - think about it.
According to the BLS:
- Marginally attached workers are persons who are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past
- Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for a job
- Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule
The BLS U-6 standard (which you can locate by digging further into the BLS data) includes most of these missing pieces (addressed above), providing a more accurate depiction of the true nationwide unemployment situation, but U-6 also has shortcomings which we'll touch on later.
Note: Chart below includes all the "current" yet various BLS unemployment calculations; U-3 and U-6 are the circled numbers - click pic for larger image
So, U-3 and U-6 both have shortcomings, how do we go about finding the true U.S. unemployment figure?
John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics has a more accurate methodology and has worked to capture a variety of quietly manipulated data changes that the Gvt has made throughout the years. John then uses this data to reconstruct a picture of the true unemployment situation - what it would really look like had the statistical manipulators not skewed the data.
John's chart below includes the BLS U-3 data (red), U-6 data (grey) and the SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate (blue) which reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for "discouraged workers" which were defined away during the Clinton Administration. These estimates are then added to the existing BLS U-6 unemployment figure to provide us with a True unemployment picture - which is > 20 today.
So why would the government lie to us and use the U-3 data for unemployment reporting when it severely distorts the truth?
Well folks, I hate to break the news to you, but the Gvt doesn't want you to know the truth... YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!
By continually tweaking, publishing and reporting severely skewed data (like unemployment, inflation, GDP and money supply growth, etc) the masses remain ignorant, oblivious, and much happier than they otherwise would be had they known the truth - think about it.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Dollar Hyperinflation?
Russia Today Report - Obama talking through his hat - dollar and treasuries falling; $24 Trillion already pumped into US economy and/or guaranteed - this will ultimately fail; Entire state economies are collapsing; A Panic rush to exit the dollar door may take place in not too distant future... Be ready, dollars are a bad investment - buy something of value with them before a collapse.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Las Vegas: 81% of mortgage holders upside down
The Las Vegas Sun had an article today pondering the willingness of homedebtors to default on their mortgages, even if they could pay (link - The Vegas Way Out). But what really caught my attention was the eye-popping percentage of people who are currently upside down (EIGHTY ONE PERCENT!!!)
For those of you who have been following this blog for some time, maybe you will recall my post from Aug 2008 (link), where I closed with the question:
"So, will the headline this time next year be: Vegas home prices have fallen to 2000 levels and 60% of those who purchased in the last 8 years are now upside down?"
Guess we all know the answer to that question now.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
Road to Ruin
I stumbled across this superb music video while searching Youtube for something else - an excellent visual/musical synopsis of our current economic quandary.
From Youtube:
Off the new NASHVILLE TRACKS album, ROAD TO RUIN was released in July 2009 by Brian Jay Cline (http://www.brianjaycline.com). This Johnny Punish produced video presents one man's view of the recession of 2009 and the economic fallout that has been hovering over the USA this past year starting with the credit crisis of 2008, foreclosures hitting middle America and the subsequent homeless problem created as hundreds of thousands hit the streets.
From Youtube:
Off the new NASHVILLE TRACKS album, ROAD TO RUIN was released in July 2009 by Brian Jay Cline (http://www.brianjaycline.com). This Johnny Punish produced video presents one man's view of the recession of 2009 and the economic fallout that has been hovering over the USA this past year starting with the credit crisis of 2008, foreclosures hitting middle America and the subsequent homeless problem created as hundreds of thousands hit the streets.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
AARP Town Hall Meeting on Health Care - Dallas, August 4, 2009
Another example of the massses waking up from their slumber, getting involved and voicing concerns. Must watch! Hat tip FOFOA
Thursday, August 06, 2009
1/2 of all US mortgages underwater by 2011
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday.
Home price declines will have their biggest impact on prime "conforming" loans that meet underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Prime conforming loans make up two-thirds of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements.
"We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report.
Las Vegas and parts of Florida and California will see 90 percent or more of their loans underwater by 2011, it added.
"For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," the analysts said.
Link to article
Home price declines will have their biggest impact on prime "conforming" loans that meet underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Prime conforming loans make up two-thirds of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements.
"We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report.
Las Vegas and parts of Florida and California will see 90 percent or more of their loans underwater by 2011, it added.
"For many, the home has morphed from piggy bank to albatross," the analysts said.
Link to article
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