Wednesday, August 12, 2009

True US unemployment rate >20%

The official 9.4% U.S. unemployment figure, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and spouted about by most of the talking heads in the Media, is based on the BLS U-3 standard which excludes: Marginally attached workers, Discouraged workers, Persons employed part time for economic reasons, etc.

According to the BLS:

- Marginally attached workers are persons who are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past
- Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for a job
- Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule


The BLS U-6 standard (which you can locate by digging further into the BLS data) includes most of these missing pieces (addressed above), providing a more accurate depiction of the true nationwide unemployment situation, but U-6 also has shortcomings which we'll touch on later.

Note: Chart below includes all the "current" yet various BLS unemployment calculations; U-3 and U-6 are the circled numbers - click pic for larger image



So, U-3 and U-6 both have shortcomings, how do we go about finding the true U.S. unemployment figure?

John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics has a more accurate methodology and has worked to capture a variety of quietly manipulated data changes that the Gvt has made throughout the years. John then uses this data to reconstruct a picture of the true unemployment situation - what it would really look like had the statistical manipulators not skewed the data.

John's chart below includes the BLS U-3 data (red), U-6 data (grey) and the SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate (blue) which reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for "discouraged workers" which were defined away during the Clinton Administration. These estimates are then added to the existing BLS U-6 unemployment figure to provide us with a True unemployment picture - which is > 20 today.


So why would the government lie to us and use the U-3 data for unemployment reporting when it severely distorts the truth?

Well folks, I hate to break the news to you, but the Gvt doesn't want you to know the truth... YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

By continually tweaking, publishing and reporting severely skewed data (like unemployment, inflation, GDP and money supply growth, etc) the masses remain ignorant, oblivious, and much happier than they otherwise would be had they known the truth - think about it.

5 Comments:

At 8/12/2009 9:49 PM, Blogger Shannon said...

Yep, what you've said makes sense. The fact that on the uninformed citizens of this country (they choose not to be informed because they are too wrapped up in buying Gucci purses and 4000 sq ft homes)
believe that unemployment is down because the news says so, is repulsive.It's disgusting what our gov't has turned into!!!

 
At 8/13/2009 7:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "supposed" reason is that the Gov doesn't want the various "welfare" payments to ramp up due to cost of living. No doubt there are other angles.

At this point I'm withdrawing.
Don't care so much anymore. Gone kinda numb and am preoccupied with establishing buffers between me and the system.

The Government lies just as much under Obama as ("mission accomplished")Bush,
as (I did not have sex with that woman) Clinton, as (I am not a crook) Nixon.

Starve the beast and don't EVER vote for an incumbent. Short of grabbing a gun...that is what rebellion comes to.

 
At 8/14/2009 5:24 AM, Blogger Randy said...

Shannon, I agree - completely disgusting... the people however are starting to open their eyes and realize it - e.g. town halls, tea parties, etc - but it's likely too late... as Celente has forecasted, I smell a revolution in the air... I don't however think our "elected" leaders will really understand how passionate the populace has become until they see their brethren hanging from a lamppost (not advocating it by any means, but I can certainly visualize it in the not too distant future).

Anon 7:45 - Yes: Welfare, military pay, retirement benefits, Social security payments, etc are all indexed to the manipulated inflation rates.

Agree - far too many crooks at the helm regardless of political affiliation. I could give a shit about all this left vs right spin - it doesn't matter one iota - they are all crooks - lets just all try to be good Americans...

Yes, we have the best gvt that money can buy - with many of our "elected" leaders OWNED/PAID IN FULL by the system.

Thanks for comments

 
At 8/14/2009 5:24 AM, Blogger Randy said...

Shannon, I agree - completely disgusting... the people however are starting to open their eyes and realize it - e.g. town halls, tea parties, etc - but it's likely too late... as Celente has forecasted, I smell a revolution in the air... I don't however think our "elected" leaders will really understand how passionate the populace has become until they see their brethren hanging from a lamppost (not advocating it by any means, but I can certainly visualize it in the not too distant future).

Anon 7:45 - Yes: Welfare, military pay, retirement benefits, Social security payments, etc are all indexed to the manipulated inflation rates.

Agree - far too many crooks at the helm regardless of political affiliation. I could give a shit about all this left vs right spin - it doesn't matter one iota - they are all crooks - lets just all try to be good Americans...

Yes, we have the best gvt that money can buy - with many of our "elected" leaders OWNED/PAID IN FULL by the system.

Thanks for comments

 
At 8/14/2009 9:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

WOW Randy.... You just got reservation seats for Camp FEMA. LOL JK :)

Justin_n_IL

 

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