Monday, July 14, 2008

Washington Mutual and National City Lead to Steepest EVER Bank Stock Decline

Investors, Depositors and FDIC are worried -- this is HUGE folks!

Steepest-Ever Decline in Bank Stock Index (Update2)

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, and National City Corp., Ohio's largest bank, led the steepest-ever decline in the two-decade history of an index of bank stocks after IndyMac Bancorp Inc.'s collapse spurred concern more lenders are vulnerable to bad home loans.

IndyMac's failure has people worried about others.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Banks Index had its worst one-day decline since its was created in 1989, falling as much as 10 percent to close at 136.01.

``Take a very low profile,'' Laszlo Birinyi, who oversees more than $350 million in Westport, Connecticut, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``There's an awful lot of fires that need to be put out. I'm concerned about how we get them all out.''

Investors are speculating about which banks may fail after the demise of Pasadena, California-based IndyMac, which once ranked as the second-biggest U.S. mortgage company.

The collapse of IndyMac and deterioration in the construction, mortgage and auto lending markets indicate that losses at U.S. regional banks will force dividend cuts and additional capital raising, said analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and CreditSights Inc.

``After IndyMac, everyone asks, 'Who's next?' but I can list several names that strike me as far more likely to fail than National City,'' said Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. analyst Sean Ryan in an e-mail. National City has ``tons of capital and a real deposit base.'

Goldman put Zions, Utah's biggest bank, on its ``conviction sell'' list. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. predicted $26 billion in cumulative losses for Seattle-based Washington Mutual, and M&T Bank Corp., based in Buffalo, New York, posted a 25 percent decline in second-quarter profit.

Banks may report record unrealized securities losses of $35 billion in the second quarter, up 64 percent from the previous three months, the Goldman analysts said in a report today. Zions, SunTrust Banks Inc., Regions, Comerica Inc. and Bank of America Corp. are among companies that Goldman and CreditSights said may cut their dividends to help restore depleted capital.

IndyMac was seized after a run by depositors left the California mortgage lender short on cash last week. The government stepped in to help beleaguered home lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac yesterday when Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asked Congress for authority to buy unlimited stakes and lend to the companies to halt a collapse in confidence.

The decision to protect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was needed to ``stem the growing risk of credit contraction in the U.S.,'' the Goldman analysts said.

So, IndyMac was the first domino to fall and is now operating under Gvt Conservatorship. I'm curious how that went today -- first day operating in this mode.

Customers swamp IndyMac to withdraw money

PASADENA, Calif.—Worried customers with deposits in excess of insured limits flooded IndyMac Bank branches on Monday, demanding to withdraw as much money as they could or get answers about the fate of their funds.
With the failed bank now under federal control, hundreds of people lined up before dawn outside its headquarters branch in Pasadena.

The crowd swelled throughout the day, with customers seeking shelter from the hot sun under makeshift tents. Many waited for hours to get inside what became IndyMac Federal Bank after its takeover Friday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

"I didn't think this could happen," said Charles Tengeri, a retired school teacher who emerged from the bank with a check for $171,000—an amount he said represented most of his savings.

"I'm glad to get anything out," he said.

After waiting more than seven hours in line, Amy Miller walked out of the bank offices with a check for the funds she had invested in a one-year certificate of deposit. The crowd of fellow IndyMac customers burst into applause.

"Finally," the 35-year-old travel agency owner said, then took a bow. "I just couldn't wait for my money anymore."

Customers had been limited over the weekend to taking out funds through automated teller machines, debit card transactions and checks.

Customer Harvey Soldan spent Sunday night at a hotel near the bank so he could be among the first in line. With more than $100,000

in deposits, he anxiously waited to speak with bank officials.
"It's a question of how much we can get and how soon," Soldan said while waiting in line.

FDIC spokesman David Barr, who was stationed outside IndyMac headquarters, said it could take several years before the agency fully addresses customer claims.

"We have to completely unwind the affairs" of the bank, Barr said. "We may sell a portion to another bank, sell real estate. There may be lawsuits. There are a lot of different aspects to this."

IndyMac is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second-largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, according to its regulator, the Office of Thrift Supervision.

The FDIC insures bank deposits of up to $100,000 per depositor and up to $250,000 for funds in retirement accounts such as an IRA.

Speaking of the FDIC, I wonder how are they handling this potentially, very contagious, consumer loss of confidence in our public banking system?

With lots of Reassuring Propaganda -- of course:

With that calming reassurance out of the way (don't you feel better now), let me now tell you a couple of things the FDIC doesn't really want you to know/understand.

The FDIC has a set Designated Reserve Ratio of 1.25% of estimated, insured deposits -- therefore they have ~ $53 Billion (in insurance funds) backing total FDIC insured deposits of ~ $4.5 Trillion.

Current estimates for IndyMac's failure is between $4-8 Billion.

For ease of math (I imagine this initial failure estimate is very low), lets pick $8 Billion.

Therefore, the FDIC has ~ 45 Billion (53-8=45) left.

Let's now hypothetically suggest WAMU, National City and a few other banks also tank within the next year or so and this crisis completely depletes FDIC insurance... What then?

Glad you asked... How about another government taxpayer Bailout! Why not -- the Gvt will have already taken over Fannie and Freddie by then, and what's a few more trillion shared among the broke citizens of an already insolvent country.

Bottom line to the FDIC "what if": Depositors will still get their $100,000 insured by the FDIC, but it will take some time -- money will first need to be printed (causing a massive wave of new inflation). So by the time depositors get their physical money, inflation will have eroded away its purchasing power... It may or may not buy you a roll of toilet paper, but look at the bright side: even if it doesn't, you can use the dollars for the same purpose.

Weimar here we come!

Closing Note: We currently have > $14 Trillion circulating the globe and, in the U.S., less than 3% of that is available in cold, hard, cash -- the rest are ones and zeros on computer hard drives... Really makes one stop and think...

Do you have enough cash on hand in the event YOUR Bank closes it's doors? What if it take 6-months to a year to get your hyperinflated FDIC insurance money? Are you prepared?



Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

Well, here we go again. When all else fails blame the Jews. I'm a Gentile so spare me this racist trash that over and over continually comes up when someone gets stupid like our leaders and things go wrong. Dude, you need to read this one passage then look at history and learn a little something about reality.
Genesis 12:3
And if you cannot read then who would be surprised with your hatred hung out on your shirt sleeve. The Germans tried it and that one took them to hell and back.


poindextercanuk said...

i know my comments from Canada here are not entirely welcomed here, but its an outside view looking in. i am really surprised what the american public takes on a daily basis. its quite amazing to me that a large majority of people there has not marched on the white house and the federal reserve and put them in peoples custody until a more responsive governing body be allowed to oversee this incredible nonsense you put up with takes immediate action on your current circumstances.

in all honesty you need to get confidence back in your dollar. let reckless company's like bear stearns, fannie pack and freddie macdonalds banking firms outright fail and insure all of the money be it 100k or more to its depositors. many of the depositors with over 100k are corporate, which provide jobs albeit and checks. you need to get manufacturing folks! yes i mean you in the us who really do not have a wealth of natural resources. you have stop completely in iraq, admit it was a failure, admit the mistake and simply pull out alltogether, perhaps offer a peacekeeping mission thereafter at best but only on the iraq peoples request. help these people instead by leaving their country as occupiers and offer expertise to develop their oil in exchange for fair pricing of that resource. you also have to get rid of your government and replace it with the people of america, not its lawyers. actually you should have at least 50 percent of your congress respected economists with real fiscal solutions. another thing you need to do is make the very very unpleasant decision in admitting you cannot sustain your future obligations in health care, remove the private sector from it as much as possible and restructure it for more basic services. a back to basics approach for your health care is so very overdue. your future obligations to health care with the massive boomer generation influx will collapse your financial infrastructure, if its not almost already there. keep in mind boomers are just starting the smallest part of the massive retirement wave to come. as for going to a gold standard? forget it, the nickel and dime fkers like you and me with only an ounce to a few ounces at best (lame investors) and the lack of gold altogether in the us just doesnt make viable options here. most gold is held by larger entities and can price the metal in their favor. lets say us had over 7 5% of gold reserves in the world, maybe you can go to a gold standard but if that were the case then perhaps your financial troubles would not exist if that were true. i believe you need a peaceful revolution there, take into custody your current government outright DO NOT KILL!! and place true intellectuals in control of decisions NOT power. obtain a free media agian (if that's possible). i watch cnn and abc etc with a feeling of embarrassment overall and its painful to watch it, hey i include our own run media here and bbc for that matter, who only report one sided bias information usually...always. by the way, get rid of the words "ethics and morals" from your vocabulary and replace with "responsibility and accountability" and you may look at internalizing decision making affecting others against the alter of externalizing decisions about others that ethics and morals do cause it seems to judge rather than respond honestly. get rid of the word god on your money, garbage! by the way, there is no god, ok are we done now? end of story, same as religion, all nonsense fairy tale agendas ment to control and delusion minds on masse.
well i hope an outsiders view is not taken to harshly for you readers, take a reality check and take control of your destiny. oh and one other thing, teach about managing money, monetary theory, and accounting from GRADE 1 through post secondary as MANDATORY! read everything you can about these subjects, start with t.harv ecker and his book "secrets of the millionaire mind" and change your money blueprints you have wired upstairs as soon as you can. how do i take control? i opened up a business and have two more im opening up in the next few years, i run them "responsibly and accountable" for customers, community, and environmentally.

take control!

outsider canadian

Anonymous said...

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