Friday, July 25, 2008

Your Thoughts

Though I like to consider myself a "realist" (who has been right with many calls), lots of folks tend to label me a "doom and gloomer".

Yes, I feel our global economy is destined for significant change as the tectonic financial turmoil wreaks havoc on the world's financial systems, and I also feel the US will likely bear the brunt of this economic calamity.

The Fed's bailout/intervention and easy money policies will eventually lead to a failure in the world's reserve currency (US Dollar) and ultimately the massive inflation wave caused by these policies (and currency failure) will cause our American standard of living to fall precipitously - while our global position of dominance is lost. Timeline for this to take place: unknown, but not too far off.

Anyway, I'm starting to get off track here... My point is: I agree that my viewpoint (expecially to those unfamiliar/ignorant to these topics) is overwhelmingly negative, but I'm merely relaying the indicators that I see from reading my tea-leaves - and thus far, they have been pretty accurate.

With that said, I read quite a bit and constantly run across articles and authors who are much more "doom and gloom" than I (at least from my perspective).

A prime "doom & gloom" theme that I've run across as of late, and would like to get your thoughts on, is:

By November 08 we will experience a full-blown economic crisis, and a state of emergency (martial law) will likely have to be declared, elections suspended, and democracy as we know it replaced by something far different...

What are your thoughts on this issue? I'd really like to hear them... Do you think things could actually get this bad this quickly? Possibly a preordained/orchestrated political agenda - to keep a hold on power?

Let's hear what you're thinking - please don't sugar coat, but try to refrain from the religious bashing thing (it's counterproductive).

Looking forward to reading your comments.




Patrick said...

It's my view the best we can hope for is a Soviet-style collapse; it will be years before the forelock-tugging peasants start worrying about their next debt trap. Just wait until they find out the dollar is toast and their pensions have been stolen. We will be dealing with Tribal Law before Marshall Law. We are in the danger zone; make no mistake, this place is going to be on fire before it's all over; the cage is in place, the engines are idling for the time they bring the hammer down. False flag? 70/30.

Want to see your future?

Argentina's Economic Collapse

Documentary on the events that led to the economic collapse of Argentina in 2001 which wiped out the middle class and raised the level of poverty to 57.5%. Central to the collapse was the implementation of neo-liberal policies which enabled the swindle of billions of dollars by foreign banks and corporations. Many of Argentina's assets and resources were shamefully plundered. Its financial system was even used for money laundering by Citibank, Credit Suisse, and JP Morgan. The net result was massive wealth transfers and the impoverishment of society which culminated in many deaths due to oppression and malnutrition.

PDM said...


I believe you have made your case based on best evidence.

As for a SHTF scenario, I am not sure it will be an overnight thing. They elite have come to far and will stage manage this.


Anonymous said...

IMO - a managed or hidden fall with some big managed failures and a few rough surprises thrown in.
I am in a cautious mode, fearful with a toe in the water on planning for failure of systems but at the same time life goes on with work / business
Most folks I know are unaware of details or depth, national news at 6 pm, they are aware only to the slightest degree, of my relatives, only my 92 yr old granny agrees with my ( doom and gloom outlook ) My auntie said no, we will not collapse, "I trust our goverment not to let that happen" all the while her portfolio slowly bleeds. An uncle was set to retire, his portfolio decline is causing him to continue working a while longer. I am not in an area that bubbled up so much. I cannot imagine our citizens in general rising up, too busy working and raising kids and trying to get by, perhaps when unemployment doubles and the only work is the government new deal job

Anonymous said...

Last night we were golfing and eating dinner with friends and chatting it up. Everything seems carefree, doesn't it? Sure we've all lost $ this past year, but most of us had the money to readjust our budgets and we're fine, for now. Could there be elites who have a union planned for us like Europe ? and could they have to force ( in some way, possibly economically ) this upon us ? Sure!
Americans are THE most independent lot in the world. An Amero sounds like treason to us, we want our greenback- whether we are prolife or prochoice or a hawk or a dove- we're American. This may not happen for a while, because it would be opposed in a million different ways by tons of millions of government military and civilian citizens, sabotaged if you will. My fear is "what it would take " to get us to this new system - they would have to make life so economically bad for all of us that we as Americans would be begging for a new system and new "money".
I do not know if it is true. But I know it is possible, especially if there really is manipulation of the markets... and oil prices... and commodities... The transition period would be painful because we are Americans!
Are we witnessing the early labor pains of this plan? My advice, beg for an epidural as soon as possible... and just don't be someone "shell shocked" at the level of pain. Denial in the end hurts worse-
Catholic girl-

Anonymous said...

You ask a very reasonable question in light of current events. I am CTO of a startup company with a PhD in the central science. I only mention those credentials because I, like yourself, have often questioned my sanity as I pause to consider the consequences and implications of our present national condition. You are not alone in your views and your concerns.

Now to the question at hand, I view the imminent threat of martial law in terms of probabilities. Four years ago, the probability of a complete collapse of the US banking industry was viewed as absurdly unlikely. That probability now is openly discussed as a realistic threat. Four years ago, questioning whether the US would descend into martial law was as equally absurd as a banking collapse, now the question is raised. Bottom line, I don't think anything is out of the question at the moment.

I feel as if we are overtaxed to the point of slavery and our socialist empire is about to implode.

K - in NY

Tim said...

The area that I'm most pessimistic about is our political system. Yes, American sentiment is extremely negative about where our country is headed. But if you ask a random person on the street what they think can be done about the situation, they'll probably say something to the effect of "vote for the lesser of two evils". Any candidate, on any level, that truly talks about the core problems (dollar devaluation, budget/trade deficits) without promising more social programs is laughed off the scene.

I've always said that if there was a mass epiphany in this country regarding our monetary and financial situation, there would be riots in the streets.

Anonymous said...

There will be no election, McCain will be hospitalized and die from cancer, Obama will be killed in a terrorist attack, Bush will declare martial law and they sheeple will be only to happy to "not rock the boat", enjoy the die-off.

J. Browning

Anonymous said...

Hi Randy,

I disagree, as Randy Tausch might have said, you're missing the 'head fake.'

(BTW I'm the guy who introduced you to the term TEOTWAWKI).

Have you read the featured article at Silver Bear Cafe this week, "Cognitive Dissonance?"

I buy into the theory that the problem with oil isn't that there isn't enough, but that it's too accessable.

Don't get me wrong, Peak Oil is probably real, but modest reductions in use will make the supply last a very long time. Even Peak-Oilers agree, they just see demand increasing as supply flatlines and gradually decreases.

As I've said here and elsewhere, The USA's exports are food and weapons--we quite explicitly run the show and will get what we want from our friends around the globe.

The problem with oil is it's fairly easy to use and equal opportunity.

So a switch to nuclear (as in the article i mention) drastically curtails growth the US doesn't like--complicated energy technology consolidates control.

Also, while I sympathize with your desire to protect your wealth--isn't that largely the problem? If those who have personal assets over say, $1 Million (minus the house) were stripped of that wealth and told "too bad, so sad," the national debt wouldn't be paid and the 'problems' of fiat currency wouldn't be eliminated, but life could continue comfortably at least for your children's -children's -children--a long enough timeframe that it's hard to meaningfully plan much past that point.

I think ultimately that's the plan--shock the world out of oil, consolidate control under nuclear, and gradually redistribute the wealth more equitably (the last one has to be subtle to get the rich working again gradually).

Even I, a guy of 6, not 7 8 or 9 figure wealth, know that my labor's don't even come close to justifying my standard of living--yet here we all are trying to protect our ill-gotten gains. It's human nature, but it's also the problem and the CAUSE of every societal collapse ever--the strong keeping what they have from the weak--even if it eventually leads to the downfall of all of us.

I love it when you write and still don't care for the videos, although the Argentina collapse series was pretty good!


Anonymous said...

The Federal Reserve is in control here and they will continue to destroy the dollar at all costs...does not matter who is Nouriel Roubini put it best...we privatize profits and we socialize losses.

Paulson will protect the banks, inflate as needed...and the dollar will fall further...the middle class will become the poor class and it will be a slow death for the economy.

Eventually we will revert back to the gold standard in 5 to 10 years but not until after the dollar falls 40 to 50% further, the DOW retraces the rise of the 80s and 90s to a tune of a fibbo retarce of .50 to .618 (rallies within this retrace).

Anonymous said...


ill gotten gains ???

I believe everyone who is bright and energetic and hard working and a saver should "gain" in this world, and should assist those who are less energetic shall we say or not as blessed by genes or environment- to not go hungry or homeless-and I believe Americans are the hardest working people in the world- and frankly, we are most generous-
our gains are blessings of birth and homeland and work ethic-
not ill gotten...

Catholic girl

Louisa said...

People generally would rather hear happy news than unhappy news, so you see why the term "doom and gloom" gets easily placed on people who talk about unhappy news. And you can also get extremes on either side of the coin which doesn't help much either. Everyone will process the information through their own filters.

That said I don't know that things will deteriorate that badly that quickly with something like Martial Law being enacted by November. That sounds too wild to me at this point to happen. Just look at the complacency of the general populace with the passage of the Fannie/Freddie bailout. Ho-hum. Real pain has not touched enough people for long enough time yet.

So I don't see things falling apart like that so quickly, however, I must admit that for some reason I have been having a gut sense lately - I think since this Fannie/Freddie bailout especially, that things are deteriorating fast and I am wondering if something more dire is perhaps around the corner for the U.S. financial system. I do get a sense of a collapsing of some sort. But, I don't know what that is exactly or how it will play out, if it does.

I don't know that our situation would be just like Argentina, I don't think it would but it could have elements similar.

Could we have a currency collapse of the U.S. dollar? Would the world economy allow it?

Justin_n_IL said...

"The strategic failure of a whole generation of economists, bankers, and policy-makers has been so enormous that it may now take a strong draught of socialism to save the Western democracies". Wave goodbye to what is left of freedom and say hello to SOCIALISM. Say hello to "absolute power". "Folks, you are either with us or against us. Those who are against us are enemy combatants" What's left of capatalism is about to give up it's last breath. All of these bailouts at the cost of taxpayers you have been seeing here in America is NOT capitalism. The "controled" version of capitalism is on life support and they are about to pull the plug. This is a global economy. This is a global credit bubble. This is a global credit crunch. Therefore, the consequences will be GLOBAL.

In a world full of nasty biological weapons, chemical weapons, and thermonuclear weapons? In a world where Russia and China have been building up there war machines at breakneck speed? The KGB still runs Russia and fooled the West into thinking the goals of the communist party were abolished. It was merely a "controled" demise of communism replaced with a "controled" capitalism{a man by the name of Anatoliy Golitsyn who defected from the KGB told of the controlled demise of communism yrs. in advance. He made approx. 145 predictions and 139 have been fulfilled yet most of the West discounted him.}. Russia and China conduct military drills together these days and Russia and China have been pumping out top notch military technology for the past decade +. They see what's coming and they will take advantage. The earth is getting ready to reel to and fro like a drunkard. My thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Thought this may interest some of the readers. I went to visit my father yesterday. He's a 62 year old retired steel worker. He lost most of his pension and is just starting to claim his social security benefits. Years ago he bought 5 acres in the country and bought a trailer to live in and has over the past 10 years built garages, gardens and chicken coups around with stashes of old cars and metal in a somewhat orderly fashion. He has a well and septic system and has enough wood to last at least 2 winters. He has enough guns and ammunition to more than sufficiently hunt and defend himself.
I said to him that he was self sufficient, and he said "almost there."
Now this guy doesn't read much. No internet. No newspapers. He may watch the local news every once in a while, so he isn't getting fed this media spin. What he does know is that he lost his pension after doing 30 some years in a steel mill and he's not happy about it. But the real reason is, as he puts it, "something just ain't right, and I'll be ready."
Sometimes wwe tend to think too much.
I left there with ten chickens to raise.

Anonymous said...

Nothing so dramatic as all that.

The OneWorlders are moving along too nicely with the PPS (North American Union) and its no-whimper coup to fudge the deals now.

Justin_n_IL said...

The one worlders are going to discover that there are a couple of turds in the punch bowl. Russia & China and those who are aligning themselves with them.

Justin_n_IL said...

By Jerome R. Corsi with my sarcastic comments in parenthesis.
© 2008

President Bush, without so much as issuing a press statement(NO, you're kidding me?), on May 9 2008 signed a directive that granted near dictatorial powers to the office of the president in the event of a national emergency declared by the president( the president is the one whom determines just what a national emergency is and when he says so then he becomes the iron fisted top dog?).

The "National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive," with the dual designation of NSPD-51, as a National Security Presidential Directive, and HSPD-20, as a Homeland Security Presidential Directive, establishes under the office of president a new National Continuity Coordinator.

That job, as the document describes, is to make plans for "National Essential Functions" of all federal, state, local, territorial, and tribal governments, as well as private sector organizations to continue functioning under the president's directives in the event of a national emergency.

The directive loosely defines(Loosely defines? WOW, I am so surprised.) "catastrophic emergency" as "any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions."

When the president determines a catastrophic emergency has occurred, the president can take over all government functions and direct all private sector activities to ensure we will emerge from the emergency with an "enduring constitutional government."(Hello America!!!! They just wadded up your constitution and threw it in the garbage. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.)

Translated into layman's terms, when the president determines a national emergency has occurred, the president can declare to the office of the presidency powers usually assumed by dictators to direct any and all government and business activities until the emergency is declared over(Declared over by whom? Oh ya, the new dictator.).

Ironically, the directive sees no contradiction in the assumption of dictatorial powers by the president with the goal of maintaining constitutional continuity through an emergency(you don't say?).

The directive specifies that the assistant to the president for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism will be designated as the National Continuity Coordinator.

Further established is a Continuity Policy Coordination Committee, chaired by a senior director from the Homeland Security Council staff, designated by the National Continuity Coordinator, to be "the main day-to-day forum for such policy coordination."

Currently, the assistant to the president for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism is Frances Fragos Townsend.

Townsend spent 13 years at the Justice Department before moving to the U.S. Coast Guard where she served as assistant commandant for intelligence.

She is a White House staff member in the executive office of the president who also chairs the Homeland Security Council, which as a counterpart to the National Security Council reports directly to the president.

The directive issued May 9 makes no attempt to reconcile the powers created there for the National Continuity Coordinator with the National Emergency Act. As specified by U.S. Code Title 50, Chapter 34, Subchapter II, Section 1621, the National Emergency Act allows that the president may declare a national emergency but requires that such proclamation "shall immediately be transmitted to the Congress and published in the Federal Register."

A Congressional Research Service study notes that under the National Emergency Act, the president "may seize property, organize and control the means of production, seize commodities, assign military forces abroad, institute martial law, seize and control all transportation and communication, regulate the operation of private enterprise, restrict travel, and, in a variety of ways, control the lives of United States citizens."

The CRS study notes that the National Emergency Act sets up congress as a balance empowered to "modify, rescind, or render dormant such delegated emergency authority," if Congress believes the president has acted inappropriately.

NSPD-51/ HSPD-20 appears to supersede the National Emergency Act by creating the new position of National Continuity Coordinator without any specific act of Congress authorizing the position.(Man, is getting hot in here? No no no, it's pretty much the same. All is good.......doop de doop de doo..... The lobster is about to be boiled.)

NSPD-51/ HSPD-20 also makes no reference whatsoever to Congress. The language of the May 9 directive appears to negate any a requirement that the president submit to Congress a determination that a national emergency exists, suggesting instead that the powers of the executive order can be implemented without any congressional approval or oversight.(Can you say "absolute power"?)

Homeland Security spokesperson Russ Knocke affirmed that the Homeland Security Department will be implementing the requirements of NSPD-51/ HSPD-20 under Townsend's direction.

The White House had no comment.(No comment? Well gee I wonder why?)

Randy said...

Great thoughts/comments folks. Appreciate everyone posting up.

Justin, that article on NSPD-51/HSPD-20 was pretty damned scary!

Here's an actual hyperlink to the article for those who may have had difficulty with the Justin's: Bush makes power grab

Based on the information contained above, I guess the answer to my initial question would be: It's not entirely out of the question.

Again, I really appreciate all of you taking the time to comment, and though I may not have replied back to your comment directly, I want you to know that I read and digested every word of every comment above.

You folks are the best!


Justin_n_IL said...

Be sure to research these items as well. Military Commissions Act and the John Warner Defense Authorization Act. We already see socialistic actions taking place via the banking bailouts. These will be in due time followed with tyrannical actions as well.

Think about it Randy. Why would they be doing all of this power grabbing that runs absolutely contrary to the Constitution? Some might argue that it's because they know a financial meltdown is imminent and that there will be social chaos to follow. Some take a step further and say that this economic meltdown was planted and nurtured so that a power grab could happen. If the founding fathers were here again today they would storm D.C. with guns blazing. I believe there mentality was something like "better to die fighting against tyranny than live as a slave therebye". They were very well educated men who actually grasped the fact that history doesn't lie. History proves over and over that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Today most of America has no grasp on reality of any kind. They've been dumbed down and they like it that way. They are a generation of wusses. They don't want any gain if it takes pain. They have become like a fat heifer who just want's to munch on hay and lay in the shade. Problem is the hay and shade are disappearing. When the shade and hay disappear they will cry out to there dictator to save them. They want something for nothing. That is a description of the vast majority of American's. The one's who do get passionate (due to the war and economic problems) tend to look towards men who are part of the problem. The propaganda apparatus will not allow a sensible man to be known(i.e. Ron Paul). I will say this though. There are a lot of people starting to wake up. However it is my belief that when enough people awake to actually do something it will be to late. Just like the toad sitting on the stove in a pan full of water who is boiled before he can jump out. The heat comes slowly and gradually. He never notices any sudden changes and then BAM, he's boiled. How many toads, I mean Americans do you see digesting the NSPD-51/HSPD-20? In a sensible well informed America it would be talked about over and over and a cry would be let out to turn it back. Imagine if there would have been non stop debating within the MSM concerning Bush's power grab? But there was NOT nor will there be.

Accurate knowledge is often painful and American's simply do not have much tolerance for pain. The Constitution is being sliced and diced and this has been going on for quite some time. The Constitution is bleeding to death. Death from a 1,000 cuts.

I'm very blunt, WAVE hello to socialism and absolute power. They are not here yet but they are in plain view coming down the street towards you.

Justin_n_IL said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
OperationNorthwoods said...

It's hard to believe that the Western elite have failed to consider what would result from moving industry to China or creating a huge credit bubble.

My gut tells me that things are going to end badly for the average American, perhaps worse than how Soviets fared. And with this comes a feeling that the American economy is in a kind of pre-crisis state.

It's not crazy to think that the US or the dollar could hit the wall within a year or so.

Justin_n_IL said...

Forgot to add this quote from ugh.... J.Edgar Hoover.

"The average person is at a distinct disadvantage when he comes face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous he can’t believe it exists.”

And a favorite quote that comes from myself and a friend of mine.

"The wolves are wide awake and driving while the sheep are asleep in the backseat"

Michael said...

If China or Japan stops buying our debt, or starts selling dollars, I can see this happening. Otherwise, it will be a slow economic collapse. In 5-10 years, I believe the US will be a 3rd world country.

Michael said...

If China or Japan stops buying our debt, or starts selling dollars, I can see this happening. Otherwise, it will be a slow economic collapse. In 5-10 years, I believe the US will be a 3rd world country.

Justin_n_IL said...

Here is an interesting tid bit.

The following article concerning Hitler's greenbacks came via

When Hitler came to power, the country was completely, hopelessly broke. The Treaty of Versailles had imposed crushing reparations payments on the German people, who were expected to reimburse the costs of the war for all participants — costs totaling three times the value of all the property in the country.. People were living in hovels and starving. Nothing quite like it had ever happened before - the total destruction of the national currency, wiping out people's savings, their businesses, and the economy generally. Making matters worse, at the end of the decade global depression hit. Germany had no choice but to succumb to debt slavery to international lenders.

Or so it seemed. Hitler and the National Socialists, who came to power in 1933, thwarted the international banking cartel by issuing their own money. In this they took their cue from Abraham Lincoln, who funded the American Civil War with government-issued paper money called "Greenbacks." Hitler began his national credit program by devising a plan of public works. Projects earmarked for funding included flood control, repair of public buildings and private residences, and construction of new buildings, roads, bridges, canals, and port facilities. The projected cost of the various programs was fixed at one billion units of the national currency.

One billion non-inflationary bills of exchange, called Labor Treasury Certificates, were then issued against this cost. Millions of people were put to work on these projects, and the workers were paid with the Treasury Certificates. This government-issued money wasn't backed by gold, but it was backed by something of real value. It was essentially a receipt for labor and materials delivered to the government. Hitler said, "for every mark that was issued we required the equivalent of a mark's worth of work done or goods produced." The workers then spent the Certificates on other goods and services, creating more jobs for more people.

Within two years, the unemployment problem had been solved and the country was back on its feet. It had a solid, stable currency, no debt, and no inflation, at a time when millions of people in the United States and other Western countries were still out of work and living on welfare. Germany even managed to restore foreign trade, although it was denied foreign credit and was faced with an economic boycott abroad. It did this by using a barter system: equipment and commodities were exchanged directly with other countries, circumventing the international banks. This system of direct exchange occurred without debt and without trade deficits.

Germany's economic experiment, like Lincoln's, was short-lived; but it left some lasting monuments to its success, including the famous Autobahn, the world's first extensive superhighway. Hjalmar Schacht, who was then head of the German central bank, is quoted in a bit of wit that sums up the German version of the "Greenback" miracle.

An American banker had commented, "Dr. Schacht, you should come to America. We've lots of money and that's real banking." Schacht replied, "You should come to Berlin. We don't have money. That's real banking."

In Billions for the Bankers, Debts for the People (1984), Sheldon Emry commented: Germany issued debt-free and interest-free money from 1935 and on, accounting for its startling rise from the depression to a world power in 5 years. Germany financed its entire government and war operation from 1935 to 1945 without gold and without debt, and it took the whole Capitalist and Communist world to destroy the German power over Europe and bring Europe back under the heel of the Bankers. Such history of money does not even appear in the textbooks of public (government) schools today.

According to Schacht, then, not only did the government not cause the Weimar hyperinflation, but it was the government that got it under control. The Reichsbank was put under strict government regulation, and prompt corrective measures were taken to eliminate foreign speculation, by eliminating easy access to loans of bank-created money. Hitler then got the country back on its feet with his Treasury Certificates issued Greenback-style by the government.

At the time of the Twelfth century, merry old England, the people had a surplus of woolen clothing. Food and all necessities of life-------------And then bankers came in.

My thoughts:

Now this has got me to thinking. Hitler brought Germany out of the ashes overnight. The German people loved him for it. They praised him for it. He was there "economic" savior. The problem with Hitler was that he had "absolute power". And we know what absolute power does. It corrupts absolutely. Which of course is exactly what played out under Hitler's reign. The people for the bulk of his reign happily went along for the ride under their new "economic" savior.

America is about to have a total economic and banking meltdown. We know that the presidency has been granted tyrannical powers under Bush's watch. We also know by a look at history that economic and banking meltdowns lead to revolutions. It's my opinion that the environment will soon be ripe for an American tyrant.