Wednesday, June 11, 2008

DOW Outlook and Economic Reports

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 205 points today - closing at 12,083.

Since the start of trading last Friday, the DOW has lost 4% of its value and we're now only ~ 150 points away from the key downside resistance levels I warned you about last week: DOW -- Trouble Ahead?

The issue now is: we may see some additional losses later this week, as a potentially toxic mix of retail sales, jobless claims and inflation data is due for release tomorrow and Friday -- could this trigger a new selloff? Will we actually fall below key downside support? Will the Plunge Protection Team be ready and save the day once again?


Economic Reports due tomorrow:

- Import/export prices @ 08:30 EST (Consensus: 2% change)
- Jobless Claims @ 08:30 EST (Consensus: 365K)
- Retail Sales @ 08:30 EST (Consensus: .5% & .7% excluding autos)
- Business inventories @ 10:00 EST (Consensus: .3% increase in inventories)

Economic Reports due Friday:

- CPI @ 08:30 EST (Consensus: 0.5% & .2% excluding food and energy)
- Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 EST (Consensus: reading of 59.8)

NOTE: Friday's CPI and Consumer Sentiment are biggies! Take a look at the Sentiment chart below -- last month's University of Michigan report showed U.S. consumer confidence fell to a 28-year low in May. Another grim reading on Friday could wreak havoc on the markets.

In Closing: Regardless of what the shills are saying, all is not well with our world economy and I doubt the DOW will hold up the the increasing downside pressures... Taking a quick peek as I pen this brief post -- even the Asian Markets are tanking tonight: Major World Indices .

- Shanghai is down > 3% and below 3,000
- Hang Seng is down 2.5%
- Nikkei 225 is down 2.5%
- Taiwan Weighted down 2.5%
- Straits Times down 2%

Bottom Line: We may very well see an interesting close to this week -- w/DOW possibly closing below key support levels. If it DOES break through this first resistance level, get ready for a serious fight in the days/weeks ahead, as the PPT will defend 11,700 - 11,650 with everything in their arsenal... And if that level doesn't hold, look out below!

Best regards and good night

Randy

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4 Comments:

At 6/13/2008 10:03 AM, Anonymous Parickt said...

US foreclosure filings surge 48 percent in May

In Nevada, one in every 118 households received a foreclosure-related notice last month, more than four times the national rate.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates;_ylt=AuSfW5v3Wy3Ros5twbBWGmOyBhIF

 
At 6/13/2008 2:36 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0613.html

 
At 6/13/2008 5:09 PM, Anonymous Patrick said...

Discount fliers: Your days are numbered

"Leisure markets, particularly Florida and other family-oriented destinations, will feel the pain due to the price sensitivity of the typical consumer," said Joe Schwieterman, a transportation expert at DePaul University in Chicago.

Analysts said that other discount destinations, such as Las Vegas, Cancun and Honolulu, could become the next casualties of the dramatic increases in jet fuel prices.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/12/news/companies/airline_capacity/index.htm?postversion=2008061214

 
At 6/13/2008 9:20 PM, Blogger Randy said...

Thanks for the links Gents,

I hope to post up a LV Economic Update tomorrow.

 

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