Tuesday, June 24, 2008

We Ain't seen nothin Yet

Since the end of the housing boom in 2005, I've been stating the housing correction in Las Vegas would be significant and we'd likely see a 50% haircut (peak to trough) in home prices. Thus far, odds are looking pretty good that I'll ultimately be correct (Maybe even too optimistic).



Four years of gains wiped out in just one.

Home prices across 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in the summer of 2004, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

Las Vegas saw the biggest declines, with prices falling 26.8% in the past year.

With so many homes on the market and foreclosures rising, prices are likely to keep falling, said Patrick Newport, an economist with Global Insight

"We expect the 20-city Case-Shiller composite to fall another 15% to 20%, to a bottom at the end of 2009, translating to a peak-to-trough drop of 30% to 35%," wrote Michelle Meyer, an economist for Lehman Bros.

After accounting for 4.5% inflation over the past year, real home prices are down in every region in the nation.

Closing:

Thus far, the decline in bubble-region home prices has been quick, but I still feel we've got a long way to go. Significant banking/credit issues will soon to come to light again while unemployment numbers are due to increase significantly. Combine these issues with billions in Option Arm Resets, massive inflationary pressures and soon-to-be crucified equities markets and the result is a toxic Witch's Brew of economic misery that will continue to force massive downside price pressures across the nation.



Bottom Line: We ain't seen nothing yet!

Regards
Randy

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4 Comments:

At 6/29/2008 4:09 AM, Anonymous Patrick said...

The Real Estate Nightmare I Found In Las Vegas

It’s Friday night about 8:00 and I just returned from the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. I want to give you some initial impressions this evening, basically just a skeleton outline and over the weekend and probably into next week I will try and add some flesh to these bones.

http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=637.

 
At 7/01/2008 12:38 AM, Anonymous Patrick said...

Where is the Boom and the Doom?

Investors are running for the hills today, but are they running in the right direction? In this very informative webcast, Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report and Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of US Global Investors, discuss global investment opportunities and threats.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/07/01/where-is-the-boom-and-the-doom/

 
At 7/02/2008 5:05 AM, Blogger Randy said...

Randy said...
Unbelievable! Within minutes of making this post, my Blog was Completely LOCKED and I received (via email) the following message from BLOGGER:

Dear Blogger user,

This is a message from the Blogger team.

Your blog, at http://economicrot.blogspot.com/, has been identified as a potential spam blog.

You will not be able to publish posts to your blog until we review your site and confirm that it is not a spam blog. To request a review, please fill out the form found here: ...

We will take a look at your blog and unlock it within FOUR business days. Please note that if we do not hear from you within 20 days, we will remove your blog. If this blog does not belong to you, then you do not have to do anything. Any other blogs you may have will not be affected.

Is this merely a coincidence?

Randy

8:03 PM


Gary Near Death Valley said...
Is this merely a coincidence? If this is actually from BLOGGER, then I would say it is not a coincidence. Can you say "Homeland Security?" looking at the blogs and TELLING BLOGGER to do some things. I can. Hopefully this will all be corrected and a legit error from BLOGGER. If not, I would say the creeps from the fed gov is indeed beginning to strifle decent in all forms.

9:26 PM


Anonymous said...
Randy,


I do not believe in coincidence. Don't worry, we'll distribute this post far and wide.


- PDM

2:18 AM


Patrick said...
Small Banks: How Fragile Are They?

Credit troubles at many smaller institutions are mounting—and plunging shares make it harder to raise capital to cover losses

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2008/pi20080625_766234.htm

2:43 AM


Justin_n_IL said...
Truth is hatred to those who hate the Truth

4:13 AM


anon916 said...
I think it was the part about "Bush" that generated the red flag.

Seriously, it would be interesting to see how blogs are "identified" as spam sites. Is this from other outside users (via email) or is it an internal process?

10:41 AM


Anonymous said...
So far at 1547 CT, the Market is 11453.42. Looks like we're in for interesting times.

1:48 PM


Randy said...
I'm still locked out and can't post any new articles.



Gary - Stifling dissent or the truth?

PDM - Thanks

Justin -- well said

Anon 916 -- You are probably right about the Bush thing. I don't know how the "identification" process works.

Anon 148: I know! I'm dying to post about it. The WORST June since 1930. I warned this was coming.... DOW's Next downside resistance is at 10,600


Randy

5:56 PM


Justin_n_IL said...
It's a world of propaganda to cover up any TRUTH. Speaking of, bad news for the Al Gore crowd. Read these to articles.

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/26/climatechange.pollution

6:08 PM


Anonymous said...
The points in the video are valid, but let's not forget the pressure the Israeli lobby AIPAC is putting on the US to attck Iran. Iran's great crime is that it is not ruled by a US puppet. I believe it is Israel's goal to use the US to overthrow independent Middle Easten governments and replace them with ones dependent on the US, as these rulers will look the other way while Israel steals the West Bank and moves the Palestinians into Jordan.

10:34 PM


Jerry said...
Pretty amazing, Randy!

Within days of the Congress passing full immunity to the telecom industry, giving Bush and the Attorney's General full power to spy on Americans without warrants, you get locked up. Is that like a virtual jail sentence? Ask if they give "get-out-of-jail" cards free.

We can thank those Blue Dog Democrats, with Yella streaks running down their backs, for this capitulation.

CALL YOUR SENATOR AND TELL THAT PERSON TO VOTE AGAINST GIVING IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION TO THE HIGH ROLLIN' TELECOMS FOR THEIR ILLEGAL SPYING ON AMERICANS!

I can hear the theocratic neo-cons all clapping with glee as the sing, "the end-times are comin'. The end-times are comin'."

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

10:59 PM


Anonymous said...
The government is corrupt from the top right down to the aids. And all of us do nothing.
We need to organize mass rallies and march on Washington. But more then march we need to take down some fences and leave an impression.
Stop the wars, stop the steeling, stop the corruption, just a few of the causes and am sure there are many more, but its not division, its not our different causes, it is our common goals that must unit us. And as we are marching with the peace movement we should not let that stop us from showing force against anyone who thinks they should protect this government.
We must have 5 million there and then take a vow to stop buying more then the necessities.
Its time to stop our dividing into small narrow minded groups and embrace each other as we overthrow this devil of a government.
We don't need guns just the force of people pushing the fences. This will have the biggest impact.

3:03 AM


Matt said...
It's funny, but when I saw how far the Dow had dropped, the first thing I thought of was this blog. I wanted to get right on here and see your take. It appears that you are being censored, Randy. I honestly didn't think that last post and video were anything new, it's all the same information I've been reading for weeks. Maybe they just found this blog?

4:37 AM


Randy said...
I just checked again and I'm still locked out. Very frustrating indeed!


For those of you unaware, I have previously warned/foretold much of what is transpiring in the marketplace today and urge you to read the following posts:

Ushering in a new Economic Era

DOW: Trouble Ahead

Bernanke's Next Moves

Look Out Below


Have a great day
Randy

5:47 AM


jerry said...
I agree with the anonymous commenter about protesting in the streets. I have been attending anti-war marches and rallies in D.C. since the Iraq War began. Unfortunately, the numbers haven't impressed anyone. The crowds have diminished over the last two major events. It is very sad. Apparently, people aren't angry enough, yet in South Korea millions march against American beef! Their passion to protest against what they believe is based on a level of quality, by flooding into the streets, is amazing. Not Americans. Since Vietnam, Americans have always said, 'Let others do it. I'm too busy watching t.v.'

Most Americans have let the government strip them of everything, from their jobs, to their ability to keep up with inflation, to a horrible war, volumes of White House driven corruption, and more, but as long as they can drive their gas guzzler, they don't care much.

But now, their gas guzzler, of which has no street value anymore, is draining their disappearing expendable incomes. Their apathy continues to rein over their actions.

If they cared, Bush would have been impeached already!
http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

6:13 AM


Anonymous said...
Randy,

Your calls have been spot on. Hell, I'll keep checking in here even if it is just to read the comments. ;) How about a mirror site on Blogspot, myspace, wordpress, vox, livejournal?

- PDM

1:19 PM


Justin_n_IL said...
Another good read from Nyquist.

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0627.html

1:58 PM


Anonymous said...
Randy, I just wanted to give a big "thank you" to you for your site. I'm convinced that a Greater Depression is coming - probably a hyper-inflationary depression, even - but most people around me are saying, "the economy has never been better, it's just those dang liberals who are spreading lies making it seem like our economy is hurting..." (Since I keep my political views to myself, they generally don't know that I'm one of those "dang liberals" who has even been so subversive as to take an oath to support and defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic)

It makes me wonder if they think the stock market quotes, gasoline and diesel prices, and grocery prices are all part of the big lie spread by "dang liberals" to make the Republicans look bad, sigh...

Thank you for providing this keen insight (and more important, sanity and a firm grip on reality) that otherwise seem very deficient in this country right now.

Bravo to you!

Sincerely,
LiberalLori

2:08 PM


Justin_n_IL said...
Hey Randy,

Have you by any chance seen a graph that illustrates how crude oil rises in price as the dollar drops and vice versa? It's like beating your head against a wall trying to inform people that the reason everything is so much more expensive is in direct relation to the devaluation of the dollar. These people would rather watch brain rot "American Idol" than actually spend some time educating themselves about reality. Sometimes their refusal to see the TRUTH when it's uncomfortable absolutely boggles my mind.

6:59 PM


Randy said...
I'm still locked!

Jerry,

The problem is: Most are completely unaware of what is causing these problems and now are too busy trying to make ends meet, keep gas in the car and food on the table to care about anything else.

The masses will eventually rise up, but only after times times get much tougher (food lines, etc).


PDM, If I'M NOT UNLOCKED SOON, THAT IS A POSSIBILITY.


LiberalLori,

Though I don't consider myself a liberal (don't really like labels), I too (on several occasions) have raised my right hand and swore to support and defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic -- and I have an American Flag (that has flown many places) prominently displayed on my wall.

What I'm trying to say restated: I still feel we are the finest nation on the planet and my rants/discussions are in no way meant to be taken in an unpatriotic manner, but we the people must wake from our slumber and help to restore an EFFECTIVE government of the People and for the People.

Corporate influence on government must stop; fiat banking must end; political corruption/manipulation must stop; partisian bickering must stop; and our elected officials must be held to some accountability standards... How do we get there? Demand for change will come, but times must be much more difficult before people open their eyes and hearts to change.

Problem is: Rome is burning and time is of the essence... I just hope it is not too late.

Reading the tea-leaves to date, I would have to agree with your assessment of a hyperinflationary depression.

BTW: Thank you for the complement... Made my day!


Justin,

When my blog is unlocked, I'll look for one.

Regards to all

Randy

8:00 AM


Justin_n_IL said...
If you haven't already seen this one be sure to watch it Randy. Have a wonderful Sunday!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtY42wnFVMI

8:14 AM


Matt said...
I stumbled upon a "Part 2", so to speak, of this video.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=5aIvcpf7J6w

I frequent the www.gata.org site and followed a link. GATA is the Gold Anti Trust Action Commity. There are usually great gold related articles on their site.

3:10 PM


Randy said...
Still locked out!


Justin,

Watched the Schiff Video--very good. Thanks


Matt,

Appreciate the part-2 -- interesting.. BTW: I too like the GATA website and frequest it a couple times a week.

Thanks for posting and keeping in touch

Randy

6:48 PM


Justin_n_IL said...
Randy,

If you have to start up shop elsewhere be sure to let me know where that is.

Thanks,

Justin

7:38 PM


jerry said...
The idea that this blog is being locked for printing the truth, or at the least, providing information that could help in the process of analyzing truth is amazing. What we currently have in the White House is a president who lied America into a war, knew the information he hyped were lies, and even to this day, won't budge from his lying stance. Yet, our congress has not taken action to lock him out! There is something very wrong here.

I agree that the lives of Americans are often wrapped up in trying to get from Point A to Point B with as little interference as possible.

We know that if Jack or Jill America decides to go and buy a weedwacker, for example, from a big box store and once Jack discovers it fails to work properly, he won't hesitate to return it. He may even express his disgust to a helpless clerk, who too, just wanted his/her day to be uneventful and without interference.

Or, when out for dinner and the meal he orders is not just right, would feel justified to speak up about it. "I paid good money for this and I want it to be right!" Jack and Jill America won't complain about their broken government until everyday they drive to work they lose money.

Yet where is the outrage over their lives entering an economic abyss? Gas prices are rising; the dollar is tumbling below the permafrost; real wages are stagnant partially a result of increasing consumer inflation; their 401K is finding its way into the dumper; the top 200 CEO's are making up to 400 times the lowest paid workers; in the next few years, some 6 million will be in foreclosure; home prices are evaporating.

STOP JERRY! ENOUGH! I CAN'T TAKE ANY MORE!

I get it! But, what will it take for Jack and Jill America to get on a bus and protest the theft of our nation by the Bush royalists? Or, at the very least, to call and hound their congressperson to protect the interests and livelihoods of working America over those of the economic royalists? We know that " trickle-down" failed! Do Americans need to have it all taken away before they do something?


In the film, "There Will Be Blood", Daniel Day Lewis arrogantly boasted to the preacher kid soon before he kills him that he did not have to buy the last remaining land tract that adjoined his own oil field. In order to demonstrate it, Lewis tells the kid, "Let's say you have a milk shake and I have a big straw. I'll take my straw and stretch it way out to your milk shake, and then, I will drink YOUR milk shake."

This is what Bush and his economic royalists have done to working America. They have taken their straws and sucked our milk shakes dry. Bush pats his satisfied belly as do his rich corporatists.

We need to protest this theft on working America! It has all been one-sided since the Reagan years and it is time to end it before our nation has no more milk shakes to go around.

Thanks, Jerry
http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

8:30 PM


Anonymous said...
Hi, Randy! I hope I didn't come across badly. I didn't mean to try to say I thought you were putting the U.S. down or anything like that!

Some of what I wrote was to vent a little steam. For the past 8 years, I've heard the extreme right-wingers say that you can't be Christian unless you are a Neocon, and you can't be patriotic unless you are a Neocon, and you are a dangerous subversive if you speak the truth about our economy, the probable (bad) future of our economy, and what seem to be foolish choices by our country.

Well, I'm a patriot (served in the first Gulf War) and a Christian and care very much about the strength and health and happiness of our country, but I'm a Democrat! And I'm tired of some of the extremists who have taken over our country, trying to tell me I'm a bad person just because I believe no children should ever go hungry and believe that workers ought to have a right to unionize and have some say over their wages and working conditions.

I don't agree with 100% of the liberal positions (I'm from out west, so I don't wany anyone to take away our rifles, LOL) but I truly believe with all my heart that whatever makes life better and more fair for the bottom 99% of the people (the worker bees) ultimately makes our nation stronger.

I don't have anything against billionaires per se, but when it comes to, either the workers make enough money to be able to eat, or the billionaire makes ten billion instead of just one billion, I'd have to say, I'm on the side of the workers being able to eat.

I feel in the past 30 years or so we've been seeing the average person getting poorer and poorer, and working harder and longer, and the billionaires becoming multi-mega-obscene billionaires.

I think people are in debt mostly because it's the only way they can make ends meet.

I just keep thinking, it can't go on this way. Something has to give.

And no matter what the Neocons say, our economy is NOT all roses, and the future is NOT all brightness and light, at least not as far as I can see.

I don't mind the old-style Republicans of, say, the Eisenhower era, and I don't know for certain that the Democrats will do any better, but these lying Neocons have GOT to go.

LiberalLori

1:23 PM


Anonymous said...
LiberalLori,

There is only one party in the USA - the Plutocratic Cryptocracy Party. Like George Carlin said, "it's a big club and you aint in it." Nor am I. Our country is in the firm grip of these creatures. The calvary aint coming. It's up to you.

9:25 PM


Anonymous said...
The coming attack on Iran.

http://www.crisispapers.org/essays8w/madness.htm

As talk of war with Iran intensifies, investors seek safe haven in Gold and Silver. Gold reached a 2 month high today.

CK

10:48 AM


Anonymous said...
Anon,

If there is only one party (and I'm really beginning to think you are right on the money there, there haven't been any "real" Democrats since Jimmy Carter that I can think of) - then what the heck do we do?

How do we take back our country? Vote for a different, obscure candidate? So far that hasn't gained much traction, but...maybe if people get fed up enough?

I just want a country where decisions are made and implemented that benefit the majority instead of some special interest group or another.

I have a hard time imagining any armed revolution happening in the U.S., I just don't think we could become united enough and bold enough to do something like that. And I'd really rather see positive change happen WITHOUT violence, if possible, of course.

I'm just so frustrated with the way things have been going for the past...I don't know, 30 years? And I don't know what to do about it.

I volunteer feeding the poor/hungry and I try to shop only at shops that treat their workers relatively well and allow unions (I never shop at Wal-mart, absolutely never) and I donate money to causes that I think try to help people. What else besides that can I do?

I know big change has to happen or we are doomed. I just don't know how we can bring about that big change for the better.

12:10 PM


Matt said...
A couple of things:

1. An article displaying that our sorry government is definitely lying about inflation (which most of us here already knew): http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/07/01/stop-bernanke-from-swiping-your-savings.aspx?source=ihptclhpa0000001

2. This country needs some kind of revolution, for sure. I push this book quite a bit but you must read A People's History of the US by Howard Zinn. You will find that every time Americans talk of revolution they are steered into the voting box and that never leads to results. Therefore the struggle continues. We can NOT let ourselves be corraled into voting boxes for a change because change will not come!

 
At 7/02/2008 5:09 AM, Blogger Randy said...

ALL,

I'm still locked out, and have sent numerous requests to Blogger to unlock/review my Blog -- no response as of yet.

With that said, I was allowed to copy reader comments over to this post and remove the top (IRAN) post, so lets see if that changes anything.

Randy

 

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