Thursday, October 09, 2008

DOW: Where's the Floor?

Events are happening fast! Another 679 points lost on the DOW today -- a 7.3% hit.

So when will this rout end and where's the floor? Well, we've fallen through ALL resistance levels as shown on the weekly DOW chart below, so we've got to use a different chart.

The 15 year monthly chart below provides us with a much wider picture - allowing us to see where the next support levels are - Hmm, the first one is pretty easy to spot isn't it?

Yes, 7,200 is the next downside support level (last seen in 2002). If we happen to fall through that support, the next stop is ~ 6,500 (last seen in 1997) followed by 5,000 (last seen in 1995).

After that, we're in the dirt somewhere in the high 3,000 range.

Will we fall that far? At this point, anything is possible. I really thought my DOW 9K prediction (by the end of 2008) was pretty bold. Never did I expect to see this much market turmoil.

Certainly seems like the wings have fallen off our economic plane, and with Pilots Paulson and Bernanke now yanking at the many useless levers, looks like the only likely outcome will be a massive fireball of a crash landing.



Black Star Ranch said...

Morning Randy....
Yesterday's DOW fall past 8600 is disconcerting to say the least even for a guy who's been preparing for it for 18-years.

It's been said that the banks are hoarding cash - having no faith in their peers' and/or their balance sheet. Could there also be a Khomeini-type of mindset involved? (The Iranians would NOT under any circumstances release the hostages to Pres. Carter thru the remainder of his bungled presidency). THIS PRESIDENCY has been beset by as big a bunch of problems and has thrashed around trying numerous ill advised solutions while making matters worse. Is it possible that maybe a number of the banks have decided they'll wait out this 4-week period of uncertainty WITH THEIR CASH until the "Ship's Captain" is replaced?

Keep up the good work.


Theirs no top or bottom.