Sunday, October 05, 2008

Can't Stop Kondratieff Winter!

Tim Wood, one of the writers/analysts I regularly follow, wrote an article on Friday related to the recent bailout package: It Ain't Gonna Work .

Tim feels (and I'd have to agree) that our financial powers that be (FPTB) have been working hard to fight a secular bear market that actually started in 2000, and their manipulative ways have merely delayed, but will not stop the looming Kondratieff Winter that lies in wait.

Excerpts from It Ain't Gonna Work :

By every historical measure the equity markets slipped into a secular bear market in 2000. As a result, we began to see efforts by the powers that be to keep the market afloat. I have stated all along that manipulation will ultimately not work. I have also stated all along that all this will do is make matters worse in the end. Well, I would think that everyone can now see, matters are indeed much worse. Yet, the Fed, the Treasury and the politicians continue to think that they can “fix” the problem by throwing more money at it. They do not understand that they can’t “fix” this economic crisis. They also do not understand that it is their trying to “fix” things in the past that has created the current situation. All markets as well as the economy must both inhale and exhale. They are trying to prevent the exhaling and it ain’t gonna work.

What we are dealing with is the wrath of Kondratieff Winter, which is about the purging of excess credit. Along with that comes deflation and along with that global stock markets enter into extended declines. Real estate declines, economic growth slows, commodities decline, bankruptcies accelerate as the excess credit is purged from the system, the banking system is shaken, the free market is blamed and we move toward national fascist political tendencies. We are now seeing each and every one of these symptoms of K-wave winter. For the record, I did not make up these symptoms to fit the current situation. I have original writings by Nikolai D. Kondratieff and the signs of K-wave winter were quoted from a book by David Knox Barker titled, The K-wave and was published in 1995. Don’t think the powers that be aren’t aware of Kondratieff Winter. They know full well what we are facing and that is why they have tried to hold back its wrath as diligently as they have since 2001.

...Personally, I think that the powers that be helped to make matters worse by postponing the inevitable and that they are now facing checkmate because the dye has now been pretty much cast.

So you ask, sounds pretty scary, but just what exactly is a Kondratieff Winter?

Well, a piece I wrote back in 2007 explains what it is and then goes even further by explaining why/how the Kondratieff Winter of 2001+ was delayed - to now anyway:

Suggest you become familiar with the term, as it will be our destiny: Kondratieff Winter - From Dec 2007 Post

Best Regards



Justin_n_IL said...

2 TON heavy thing

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Darrell's End Times said...

So what happened, why are we not there yet?

A good question: why are we not there yet? My answer, as long as the central bankers continue to accept the dollar as legal tender our economy will do OK! You can use your dollar supply and go anywhere in the world and buy goods, services and/or assets!

The seller simply goes to their central bank and exchanges their dollars into their currency.

This is an economic force that our friend Nikolai never thought about back in the days of Stalin rule; if he had, he may have lived to a ripe old age rather than being shot for not giving glory to the socialist model for dealing with business cycles.

Anonymous said...

Hi Randy,

Congratulations for your blog that I follow regularly.

Concerning Kondratieff winter and why it is delayed, apart from "easy credit" policies as Greenspan's that you point out, I think that there is a more fundamental reason. The big difference in our present Kondratieff cycle is the emergence in the 70's of the world of finantial derivatives that has inflated the credit mechanism and has distorted (elongated) the Kondratieff cycle. Here you can find this thesis put forward by a mathematician:




Sorry, the article is in spanish (it is from "El Pais", one of the main national spanish newspapers).


10/05/2008 4:04 PM


Interesting theory.