Discussion of Housing Bubble, US Dollar, Debt, Trade Deficit, Oil, Gold, Consumer Spending, Central Banks, Inflation, Outsourcing and the Bleak Future of the US economy
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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Open Forum
Please use this forum to post up interesting links, hold a discussion, etc.
I'm currently in Washington DC on business. Likely to be working long hrs this week plus I'm dealing with an extremely slow internet connection out of my hotel room - therefore, don't know how much posting I'll be able to accomplish.
In the meantime, please use this forum to share good articles/links and/or hold a discussion.
07/17/09 CNNMoney, initial unemployment benefits of 650,000 people used up. Extended benefits differ state to state. Another source reports +20,000 people daily max out. Like a pebble dropped into a water pool..... Already financing future production and sales is hard. Added together with declining US dollar, proposed government programs, growing housing & commercial loan defaults, our everyday lives are rapidly changing. Holding gold is not enough. One blog I find hopeful is http://sharonastyk.com.
On the topic of inflation: Inflation is always a curse for a country with a weak/weakening currency. A good example is Argentina in 2001 when it defaulted on its debts. As a result the peso/USD rate went down by some 60%. Oil at that time was flat at $20-$25 but in peso oil tripled in price. Argentina exports a lot of wheat and meat. Exporters of these commodities made a pile of money by exporting these goods to the US or Europe. But these goods are priced in USD as well so the argentine people saw the price of these goods go up by some 300% as well.
Take a look at this graph. It shows the well known CRB commodity index priced in USD. See what happened to the index from 2001 to 2008. One of the reasons this happened was the printing of money by the FED. But because the EUR/USD went up from 0.80 to 1.60 from 2001 to 2008 price inflation in Europe was in that time frame much lower.
(Try this link or this link. This website has some very interesting graphs.)
I'm seeing more blogs posting about dollar collapse. The rate has quicken recently. More are openly suggesting that inflation won't be the route for escaping debt. They're now talking about outright repudiation of debt(especially to foreigners bond holders). Oh, wouldn't that really piss off the Asians. -- Of course, folks have been calling for dollar collaspe so long that I'm rather inured to it. Still, you all out there can enhance my & others radar. -- Please post relevant, pertinent info for the benefit of those who need to know when to leave the mother ship for the lifeboats / lifejackets. -- Seriouly. Like many of you are surely aware of, there's company 401K's that Wall St has cohersted us into such that we are trapped for fear of significant penalty should we pull out. -- Please help me (help yourself) in starving the beast.
I am amazed that with the nearly $24 trillion in US monetary and fiscal stimulus / support that we have not seen rampant inflation. However, the velocity of money has absolutely cratered, which may be reflecting an incredibly negative outlook concerning the "real" economy as well as employment. Is it possible you cannot push a string when people refuse to continue purchasing as they once did? There are simultaneous indications of deflation (in terms of many hard assets) as well as inflation (in terms of consumables). Ultimately the turning point will be when foreigners refuse to purchase any more US debt, which will start the hyperinflation fire. That may signal "change you don't want to believe in". The first US bond auction that fails to sell out will be the signal, IMHO.
On the topic Climate change: Evelyn Gariss was interviewed by Financial Sense in March of this year. Listen to the audioclip from 00:20 to 00:50. link.
Anonymous 7/23/2009 8:55 PM: Oh, wouldn't that really piss off the Asians.
do you mean the Chinese? Right now the US can devalue its currency but not for long: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0729.html
Although I DO NOT fully agree with what he says. The first financial bubble began already in 1998, in the aftermath of the Russia crisis of 1998. The US economy already peaked in the 4th quarter of 1997 !!!
"President Barack Obama on Friday denounced what he suggested was news media overemphasis on scenes of angry protesters at town-hall meetings on health care. "TV loves a ruckus," Obama said."
When Elizabeth Warren expresses worry of further economic failures with the investment bank's hidden toxic assets, and the coming commercial real estate collapse in the coming year or two, she should be heard loud and clear. Hear is a woman with no axe to grind, no agenda, and what appears to be an honest voice.
To me, when she expresses these major worries, I can honestly know that it WILL happen.
Hey Randy, I am pretty sure you will like this YouTube video. You might want to post it for some comic relief. It is pretty good stuff about the government from comedian Tim Hawkins. -Iconoclast
21 comments:
I'm currently in Washington DC on business. Likely to be working long hrs this week plus I'm dealing with an extremely slow internet connection out of my hotel room - therefore, don't know how much posting I'll be able to accomplish.
In the meantime, please use this forum to share good articles/links and/or hold a discussion.
Thanks
Keep up the good work Randy. I'm still WORKING long hours in Iraq. Look forward to talking to you in a couple of months. Take Care....Chris R
Good to hear from you Chris. I spent some time with your office mates this week. Very enjoyable.
Keep your head down over there, we all want to see you back here in one piece
07/17/09 CNNMoney, initial unemployment benefits of 650,000 people used up. Extended benefits differ state to state. Another source reports +20,000 people daily max out. Like a pebble dropped into a water pool.....
Already financing future production and sales is hard. Added together with declining US dollar, proposed government programs, growing housing & commercial loan defaults, our everyday lives are rapidly changing. Holding gold is not enough. One blog I find hopeful is http://sharonastyk.com.
Total Bailouts = $ 23 Trillion.
Click here
On the topic of inflation:
Inflation is always a curse for a country with a weak/weakening currency. A good example is Argentina in 2001 when it defaulted on its debts. As a result the peso/USD rate went down by some 60%. Oil at that time was flat at $20-$25 but in peso oil tripled in price. Argentina exports a lot of wheat and meat. Exporters of these commodities made a pile of money by exporting these goods to the US or Europe. But these goods are priced in USD as well so the argentine people saw the price of these goods go up by some 300% as well.
Take a look at this graph. It shows the well known CRB commodity index priced in USD. See what happened to the index from 2001 to 2008. One of the reasons this happened was the printing of money by the FED. But because the EUR/USD went up from 0.80 to 1.60 from 2001 to 2008 price inflation in Europe was in that time frame much lower.
(Try this link or this link. This website has some very interesting graphs.)
When I look at the timestamp Randy is back in Las Vegas. But over here in Europe we're 9 hours ahead of Nevada.
I'm seeing more blogs posting about dollar collapse. The rate has quicken recently. More are openly suggesting that inflation won't be the route for escaping debt. They're now talking about outright repudiation of debt(especially to foreigners bond holders). Oh, wouldn't that really piss off the Asians.
--
Of course, folks have been calling for dollar collaspe so long that I'm rather inured to it. Still, you all out there can enhance my & others radar.
--
Please post relevant, pertinent info for the benefit of those who need to know when to leave the mother ship for the lifeboats / lifejackets.
--
Seriouly. Like many of you are surely aware of, there's company 401K's that Wall St has cohersted us into such that we are trapped for fear of significant penalty should we pull out.
--
Please help me (help yourself) in starving the beast.
I am amazed that with the nearly $24 trillion in US monetary and fiscal stimulus / support that we have not seen rampant inflation. However, the velocity of money has absolutely cratered, which may be reflecting an incredibly negative outlook concerning the "real" economy as well as employment. Is it possible you cannot push a string when people refuse to continue purchasing as they once did? There are simultaneous indications of deflation (in terms of many hard assets) as well as inflation (in terms of consumables). Ultimately the turning point will be when foreigners refuse to purchase any more US debt, which will start the hyperinflation fire. That may signal "change you don't want to believe in". The first US bond auction that fails to sell out will be the signal, IMHO.
Famine and foodriots in the US in the fall of this year ? link
(Read also the comments).
Global Warming just hot air ? link
On the topic Climate change: Evelyn Gariss was interviewed by Financial Sense in March of this year. Listen to the audioclip from 00:20 to 00:50. link.
Another reason there could be a shortage of food in the fall of this year. Keyword: Artgentina.
link (Video)
Anonymous 7/23/2009 8:55 PM:
Oh, wouldn't that really piss off the Asians.
do you mean the Chinese? Right now the US can devalue its currency but not for long:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0729.html
America is being sold down the river.
God bless America!
Geralrd Celente: "Bail out bubble". Link
Although I DO NOT fully agree with what he says. The first financial bubble began already in 1998, in the aftermath of the Russia crisis of 1998. The US economy already peaked in the 4th quarter of 1997 !!!
Obama spins outrage.....lol
"President Barack Obama on Friday denounced what he suggested was news media overemphasis on scenes of angry protesters at town-hall meetings on health care. "TV loves a ruckus," Obama said."
Obama denounces emphasis on health care protests
Justin_n_IL
Not only the US has a real estate bubble. Real estate bubble in China.
Robert Prechter: The markets (e.g. S&P 500) are about to go down and the USD will go up.
Lost/Las Vegas.
William K. Black speaks out again.
When Elizabeth Warren expresses worry of further economic failures with the investment bank's hidden toxic assets, and the coming commercial real estate collapse in the coming year or two, she should be heard loud and clear. Hear is a woman with no axe to grind, no agenda, and what appears to be an honest voice.
To me, when she expresses these major worries, I can honestly know that it WILL happen.
Hey Randy, I am pretty sure you will like this YouTube video. You might want to post it for some comic relief. It is pretty good stuff about the government from comedian Tim Hawkins.
-Iconoclast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO2eh6f5Go0&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Edennyburk%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded#t=173
Loved it Iconoclast - it's now posted up! Thanks for sharing.
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