Sub 1K DOW?
Back in a March 2009 post, DOW: A Historical Perspective, I created and posted up the chart below - pondering the ultimate DOW downside "potential". (click image to enlarge)
Though I also pointed out severely oversold conditions and called for an eventual rally (at that time), the main purpose of that post was to highlight that even though the DOW had been cut in 1/2, there was still much more room for it to eventually fall (back to the long-term trendline - in the high 1K area)
Well, it looks like I'm not the only one with such a bleak outlook. Marketwatch carried an article yesterday that predicts it will eventually fall BELOW 1K
"Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016"
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- An investment letter that called the Crash of 2008 said that this would be a bad year -- and it now says it will get worse.
A whole generation of investors think that Robert Prechter and his Elliott Wave Theory letters, Elliott Wave Financial Forecasts and Elliott Wave Theorist, are permabears. And they've certainly seemed that way for the last decade.
But Prechter was very bullish after the 1974 low and, briefly, after being one of the very few services to make money in 2008. Then he announced that "2010 is the year when the bear market in stocks returns in full force."
Elliott Wave Financial Forecasts (EWFF) makes recommendations specific enough to be tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. (The Elliott Wave Theorist is too, well, theoretical.)
The clearest statement comes from the Elliott Wave Theorist, discussing a numerological technical theory with which it supplements the Wave Theory's complex patterns: "The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."
"Stock market bulls and most economists think that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking for either a long sideways bear market à la 1966-1982, or a hyperinflationary run to infinity. Our Elliott Wave outlook opposes both of these scenarios. The most likely profile is a stock market crash of historic proportions."
Elliott Wave Theorist offers several reasons, including: "This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."
There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: "The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair."
Though completely outside the realm of any mainstream market forecast, I figured it's an idea worthy of your consideration nonetheless.