Thursday, March 05, 2009

DOW: A Historical Perspective

Last Sunday evening I wrote (link)

"with more bad news streaming in throughout the week, I anticipate we'll close lower next Friday than we did this last Friday and expect that we may even test the 6,400 levels throughout the week."

Well, after today I'd say we're pretty darned close to 6,400 - lets see what the release of our new/updated US unemployment figure brings with it tomorrow...

Looking at the first chart below, it's pretty staggering that, in such a short span of time, the DOW has undergone a > 50% haircut. Where/when will all this carnage end?

Click picture for sharper image

With the above chart digested, let's take a wider look - at the historical perspective (next chart). Pretty ominous isn't it? This historical view illustrates the serious "potential" for an even much bigger correction - back to the trend line?

Click picture for sharper image

I anticipate (based on oversold conditions/falling PPO and quickly approaching 1995 support levels) that we may see some further downside in the days ahead, but due to these same issues the DOW will likely find downside support soon and then it will follow up with a nice rally (8K) - before falling to new (significantly lower) depths.

DOW: Where's the floor?

Is this 1930 all over again?

just my 2cents - not investment advice



At 3/05/2009 8:52 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

It's truly a global bloodbath that will get bloodier. Most people haven't a clue concerning the magnitude of it all. These are those who fail to scratch the surface. Many of them getting their hope from empty words compliments of the touted liars.

At 3/05/2009 9:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A six hundred trillion $ derivatives casino has just gone bust.
Only a Debt Jubilee could solve most of the misery but the greedy banksters will never allow it to happen.Back in the 70s there was a saying-"eat the rich" which might get back in vogue.
Beware of the (Fox news type) media's machinations to start blaming the victims instead of the culprits.
Quote-"All men are frauds. The only difference between them is that some admit it. I myself deny it"--H. L. Mencken

At 3/06/2009 6:15 AM, Anonymous Mark said...

Beware of the (Fox news type) media's machinations to start blaming the victims instead of the culprits.
Everybody needs to check their own biases I'd say. A Republican congressman tried to forward a modest amendment so that taxpayers would not bail homeowners or lenders who outright lied on loan documents. It was shot down. Now we are bailing seconds and HELOC homeowners in CA who put in stainless appliances and in-ground pools. Not an urban legend - a factual component of the plan. Yeah, I'm pissed off, and I don't need "FOX news types" to encourage me.

At 3/06/2009 6:23 AM, Anonymous Mark said...

PS - I otherwise agree about your bank sentiments. the FED is a criminal organization and the banksters need to frogmarch off to debtors prison. However, the founder of was one of the most prominent to lament the Gummint allowing Lehman to fail (assuming you are a $oros guy...)

At 3/06/2009 8:04 AM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Well said Mark. The corruption has taken root in all facets of our society. Society as a whole has went down the rabbit hole of shamelessness.

At 3/06/2009 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Once again, a miraculous Friday closing in the last minutes. I'm always amazed that private money wants to park itself in the Dow for the weekend, when it usually falls on Monday. All those private investors piling in at the last minute on Friday must know something about investing that is eluding me.

At 3/06/2009 5:08 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Today I heard someone praising the stimulus package. "Did you know that some first time home buyers will get an $8,000 gift to apply for a down payment"? I don't know how accurate that is BUT. It is absolute lunacy. That's just what we need more home buyers who will turn around and lose their jobs and not be able to pay their mortgage. I tried to explain the lunacy of it to them but it went in one ear and out the other. The overwhelming ignorance in spite of the voice of reason amazes me.

At 3/07/2009 6:11 AM, Blogger Gordeaux said...

Randy - thought you might find this interesting.


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