Sunday, August 24, 2008

Volatile Markets Ahead

Significant market volatility is likely next week as a result of the numerous economic releases that are due.

Looking at a chart of the DOW below, notice how it has spiked above its 50 Day Moving Average (50 DMA--blue line) ? Well, I think it'll fall below it once again -- starting a new leg down - once all the new economic news is digested.

DOW Daily

Due for release this week:

Monday 10:00 Existing Home Sales
Tuesday 10:00 Consumer Confidence
Tuesday 10:00 New Home Sales
Tuesday 14:00 FOMC Minutes
Wednesday 08:30 Durable Orders
Wednesday 10:35 Crude Inventories
Thursday 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel.
Thursday 08:30 GDP-Prel.
Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims
Friday 08:30 Personal Income
Friday 08:30 Personal Spending
Friday 09:45 Chicago PMI
Friday 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev.

Additionally, many analysts/investors feel the dollar's rally has been overdone and now expect Gold to start rebounding:

US Dollar Index

Bloomberg: Gold May Extend Rebound on Demand for Alternative to the Dollar

Gold may rise for a second straight week on speculation the dollar's rally against the euro will stall, boosting the precious metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

Twenty-two of 28 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Aug. 21 and Aug. 22 advised buying gold, which rose 5.2 percent last week to $833.50 an ounce in New York, the first gain in a month.

My thoughts:

In addition to the above, physical demand from India and Middle East countries is expected to rise in the coming months - potentially causing supply/demand issues and driving a sharp rise in prices. For the short-term however, gold will need to get/stay above $850 for a while before the next leg up.




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