Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Quick look at the DOW

The DOW chart below is looking pretty bad - merely ~500 points from testing new lows; note the 7773 close in early October 2008 - that's the next downside resistance level.




Looking back 15 years:



For historical reference: 7,200 was the major low back in 2002, so if we fall/close below the 7773 identified above, 7,200 level becomes the next downside resistance. If that too is broken, we will have to travel all the way back to 1997 for a low" of 6,390.



With that said, numerous economic reports are due later this week:

Thursday

Nov 13 08:30 Initial Claims 11/08
Nov 13 08:30 Trade Balance
Nov 13 14:00 Treasury Budget

Friday

Nov 14 08:30 Export Prices
Nov 14 08:30 Import Prices
Nov 14 08:30 Retail Sales
Nov 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto
Nov 14 10:00 Business Inventories
Nov 14 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel.


I imagine several of these reports will be very bleak assessments of our economic condition and therefore expect the PPT to pull out all stops later this week - to prevent a failure of 7773.

Ultimately though - the PPT doesn't have enough power to overcome the tidal wave of forces working against it and these resistance levels will be broken - timing is the only unknown.

1 Comments:

At 11/13/2008 4:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

and all this despite the gubmint's desperate attempts to twist the numbers into cute little animals and disguise how frightening these numbers really are

 

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