Thursday, February 26, 2009

Open Forum

Feel free to post up your thoughts, links, hold a discussion etc here.

52 Comments:

At 2/16/2009 9:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

China Doubts America's Debt?

Chinese doubts about the value of US Treasury bonds highlight a crucial question: who will buy the estimated $2.7 trillion (£1.9 trillion) to $4.2 trillion of debt expected to be issued over the next two years?

 
At 2/16/2009 9:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Revealed: The true horror of everyday life in Zimbabwe

Starving children eat rats, families turn on each other and farmers kill their own livestock to survive. Smuggled film brings Mugabe nightmare to world's attention

 
At 2/16/2009 2:01 PM, Anonymous Captain Moroni said...


Vegas No. 1 In U.S.'s Most Abandoned Cities

 
At 2/17/2009 9:05 AM, Blogger Ramanand said...

Peter Schiff's latest article: Obama's Opening Salvo
Key excerpts:

There is nearly universal agreement that the opening salvo of the Obama Administration's campaign to restore health to the financial system, delivered this week by new Treasury Secretary Geithner, fell with a loud and ugly thud...

In the worldview of Geithner and like-minded economists, credit, rather than savings, is the central figure in the economic equation. Therefore, he sees anything that eases the process of lending to be an effective economic policy...

...

Credit, whether securitized or not, cannot be created out of thin air. It only comes into existence though savings, which must be preceded by under-consumption.

In an interview following his announcement, Geithner stated that government should replace the demand lost by the private sector. However, those with even a marginal grasp of economics know that demand is unlimited. It is the ability to spend that is not. While Americans still want all the things they wanted years ago, they have made the rational choice that they can no longer afford to buy at the same levels they once did. Using a printing press to replace this lost 'demand' will simply cause consumer prices to rise. Printed money does not create new purchasing power, but merely redistributes it from savers to borrowers. And since the plan will severely undermine the real productive capacity of our economy, there will not be much purchasing power left to redistribute!

 
At 2/17/2009 7:35 PM, Blogger Randy said...

Thanks for the links everyone. I read/watched them all.

This situation is becoming more dire by the day - Though I've been expecting much of this for years and though I'm already somewhat numb - the situation is still quite scary...

I can't imagine what I would feel like if I were upside down on a home, had lost 1/2 my investments and my job were in jeopardy.

But who knows, were merely seeing the beginnning of this crisis and things are happening quickly... I'm quite certain ALL OF US, regardless of background and preparation, will feel the negative impacts before all is said and done.

Best regards

Randy

 
At 2/18/2009 8:59 AM, Anonymous jerry said...

The people have the power, but they choose not to use it. If they told their Congressperson and Senator that will no longer buy a darn thing unless it was needed for their day to day living, and will no longer borrow a penny from a large institutional bank unless they were in a real need to do so, and only then, they would go to their neighborhood lender to do it, we would scare the heck out of them. They all are so fearful of having deflation. They prefer inflation. By saying NO to spending and borrowing, no matter how much dollar printing would go on, many prices would stay low.

Those who would hold dollars and cash would be doing much better because their dollars would buy more. The Con-gress does not want this to happen.

People have the power here, but are unorganized and too dim to see it.

 
At 2/18/2009 1:52 PM, Anonymous Willy2 said...

The US economist Michael Hudson was always a critic of the US financial establishment. If anyone wants to know how corrupt this establishment is, then one should visit his website and read all the information which is provided over there. He regularly contributes to websites like Counterpunch and Globalresearch . This is his latest article from Counterpunch. And one should read his book (2003) Super Imperialism

 
At 2/18/2009 5:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

for people to buy that much treasury debt the stock market is going to have to fall by half to get the money out of private investments and into treasuries.

 
At 2/18/2009 5:10 PM, Anonymous Brian said...

Randy,

great blog. I am an ex-police officer and like you have been warning family and friends about this for years. However, this is unfolding at a faster pace than even I believed. I wouldn't mind chatting with you, to compare notes. Dont' know whats the best way to get ahold of you.

www.onetickatatime.com

you can contact me above, if you like. We daytrade for a living and live this stuff.
Brian

 
At 2/19/2009 11:32 AM, Anonymous jerry said...

Gold the only remaining bubble?-article. interesting. read through the length responses, too.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/121250-gold-the-only-remaining-bubble?source=email

 
At 2/19/2009 7:29 PM, Blogger Ad Nauseum said...

Roger Wiegand is one of the most unreliable sources you have ever sited. Please go to Seekingalpha.com and search the site for his previous predictions, chart reads, etc. He is backed by the PM industry, as most of the Canadian hucksters are (David Morgan, Jim Puplava, etc.), but he is without a doubt, the worst at making predictions.

Randy, you've done a great job but you have to pull back at some point and realize when you are being taken for a fool by con artists like Wiegand.

 
At 2/19/2009 8:50 PM, Anonymous jerry said...

http://mpettis.com

Michael Pettis, Ph.D. writes about China's economics. Extremely worth reading.He is straightforward with no agenda. He teaches in China but lectures all over the world.

 
At 2/19/2009 9:02 PM, Anonymous jerry said...

check out this blogspot. He write on China's manufacturing, imports, exports, economy, and more, as well as US graphs on gold, dollar, treasuries.

He has it all.

http://bomlat.blogspot.com/

 
At 2/19/2009 11:22 PM, Anonymous Willy3 said...

I consider Roger Wiegand to be an optimist !! He certainly has overlooked some developments and he has more than once had his timing wrong but I consider him to be reliable and prescient.

 
At 2/20/2009 9:43 AM, Anonymous Jim Forest said...

Hi Randelle,

I tried to refinance my house and condo, bank said no deal, Maxyn and I make too much money, I was current on my payments and the credit score is too good.

I was setting down writing out my next mortgage payment and said “to hell with it”.

I’ve quit my job and signed up on un-employment and welfare, let my house foreclose and I’m squatting, it’ll take the bank and sheriff 2 years to get around to evict me. I went and maxed out my credit cards on guns, ammo, food and toilet paper, I can coast for 3 years with buying anything. I have seen the promise land and have changed my political affiliation to democrat; the Anointed One will save me and provide for all my needs, If you can’t fight ‘em, join ‘em.

Then I woke up and had to go work, oh well.

Jim

 
At 2/20/2009 11:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim -

Darn, I thought maybe you had started Jims Gulch. Guess I'll go to work too.

 
At 2/20/2009 6:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Guns to Be Banned for Elderly
Staff Reports
United Press International
Washington

Deputy Attorney General Designate David Ogden is circulating a draft of an executive order in which, among other things, firearms possession would be severely limited to people over 60.

An assistant to Ogden told us, "It appears that in these changing times, it is no longer necessary to allow the elderly to be armed. With all of their physical ailments and increasing senility, to leave them in control of a deadly weapon would be ludicrous."

While the Executive Order may sound too powerful, experts in Constitutional law state that it is not actually un-Constitutional.

"It's a question of wording." states Columbia Law Professor, Dr. John Braxton. "The Constitution forbids the Congress, that is, the legislative branch, from passing any laws infringing on gun ownership. The executive branch is not included in this proviso. As long as the Congress doesn't get involved, it's technically a non-issue."

The Justice Department was tossing the idea of a gun ban for seniors during the Carter and Clinton Administration, but public opinion stopped these initiatives. Now, the Obama White House believes differently.

An unnamed aide close to Ogden agreed to talk on the condition of anonymity.

"Clinton and Carter didn't have as much of a mandate as President Obama. They were both Southerners, and the Second Amendment was sacrosanct to their constituents. However, President Obama comes from a new sort of politics, where divisive issues like firearms do not apply to him."

"Quite frankly, it's a shame that no one has had the good conscience to have done this already. It's a simple process, and the majority of the American people will understand it and follow the law."

The enforcement mechanism for this particular executive order has not been published. It is likely that the confiscation of weapons will be similar to Great Britain's handgun ban, in which citizens willingly gave the weapons to police.

 
At 2/20/2009 10:37 PM, Blogger Jim Twamley said...

Randy,interesting take on Las Vegas by the UK Telegraph here:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4733166/Stakes-rise-for-Las-Vegas-as-recession-bites.html

 
At 2/21/2009 2:35 AM, Anonymous Chandra Mohan said...

Hi Randy,

Hello there. I'd like to highly appreciate your work. Just felt to send across a link to read. I'm noticing how Obama is swiftly taking great many positive actions against all the globalists, Wallstreet fat cats, the neo-cons, et al.. What if Obama is acually the nemesis of the NWO people? Enjoy :)

 
At 2/21/2009 9:11 PM, Anonymous jerry said...

F. William Engdahl speaks on video series _part_4_ about what Obama needs to do now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Toz0n9l-WDg&eurl=http://therealnews.com/t/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=3276&feature=player_embedded

 
At 2/21/2009 9:40 PM, Blogger Randy said...

Jim F. - That was hilarious!

I hope Maxyn is doing well. Give her my best.

Willie 2 or 3 - are either or both of you who I think you may be - Prior AF?

Jim Twamley - great link and your comments one recent post made much sense. Developing close friendships/relationships will become very important in the future.


Thank you Chandra - Though I feel somewhat differently than you regarding the actions taken by Obama - we will soon see.

Jerry - thanks for the link. Will read it tonight.

My best regards to all and thanks for your support.

Randy

 
At 2/22/2009 1:21 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

"What if Obama is acually the nemesis of the NWO people?"

Look at who he's surrounded himself with. Give me a break.

 
At 2/22/2009 5:49 PM, Anonymous Willy2 said...

What do you mean by "AF" ???? Please explain !!!

Regards,

Willy2 or Willy3

 
At 2/22/2009 6:37 PM, Blogger Randy said...

Willy2,

AF = Air Force

I used to know a guy in the AF named Willy (Wayne actually) and both his nickname ("Wideband") and his last name all started with a "W".

Apparently it's not you, but thanks for replying.

 
At 2/22/2009 7:57 PM, Anonymous Willy2 said...

No, I am not from the AF. I am from the Netherlands in Europe. The reason I daily visit US websites, like ECONOMICROT, is this. European companies have invested hundreds of billions of Euros in the US during the last three to four decades. While on the other hands US companies (e.g. from the DOW JONES 30 and the S&P 500) have invested hundreds of billions of USD in Europe in that same timeframe, as well. E.g. General Motors has some 50.000 workers employed in the european carindustry in Europe. (And think of jobs involved in the carparts suppliers.) And the USD is still the world's reserve currency. So, when something dramatic occurs on either side of the Atlantic the other side WILL feel the impact as well. So, when GM goes belly up Europe WILL suffer as well. And on both sides of the Atlantic politicians are dragging their feet to tell the people the extremely ugly economic truth. That's why one has to turn to the internet for more and accurate information.

 
At 2/22/2009 10:27 PM, Anonymous Willy2 said...

The GM website says the company employs some 55.000 workers in seven countries.

 
At 2/23/2009 6:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The entire global conspiracy is revealed here:

http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/3820

Let's connect all the dots and call the co-conspirators out by name.

 
At 2/23/2009 12:18 PM, Anonymous Jim Forest said...

I guess WB Willy is still MIA, let me know if you hear anything.

Anyway it's a race to bottom to see who gets there first.

All a person can do is isolate himself and his family as much as possible from the effects of this mess (you can never be 100% isolated), you prepare as much as possible and try to ride it out for 6-12 months when the crash comes. Right now I'll still go to work, make money, save and buy what I want and get ready without going "chicken little" paranoid.

I/you/we have a ring side seat to this disaster in the makings, set back, have a beer and watch it evolve. I believe BOA and Citigroup will shtf by May. Even if Prez Obama plan helps in the short term (< 4 years), the longer term effects will hammer us in inflated and even more worthless FRNs. If you just think about, the principal on the debt from borrowed money will never be paid back (which I doubt was every planned), it’s too great. But the interest on that debt must be paid by law. Therefore I think when the debt interest payment vs collect income taxes reaches 50%+ congress will have to increase taxes even more and/or inflate dollars and/or create/borrow more money (right now its some where’s around 30-35%, 500b interest payment vs 1.5T in taxes collected). The baby boomer will come on line in the next 5 years, more out flow, all the number are + -, but you get the idea, even if our income goes up and more taxes are collected, the insatiable feeding frenzy of congress will never go away.

We need to drive a stake through this zombie.

I think I’ll move to Bali, I have relatives there. Maxyn and I are going to Indonesia this year to see the in-laws. The Hindus are a smart and gentle people, I think I’ll buy an island, put on grass skirt and drown a worm. Say hi to the wife and gang, I’ll suck down a brew for you.

Jim

 
At 2/23/2009 3:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have some questions:
(An idiot friend I'm trying to convice and he's real good at arguing)

1) Why did Zimbabwe experience Hyperinflation?

2) What happened to Iceland?

3) What is the US doing that will send us down the same path?

4) Our Debt as a percentage compared to our GDP has not reached its maximum, so we should still be ok right?

5) Iceland's Debt as a percentage compared to their GDP was not that large, why did they fail?

6) How much money has the US actually injected into the system in the last year or so...?

7) How much money has Zimbabwe injuected into their system in the last year or so...?

8) Why will the dollar collapse...?

9) Why are our bonds still valuable?

10) One could argue that this stimlus package will create and keep a lot of jobs. What is the counter argument?

11) What will it take for China to dump our dollars?

Any help would be greatly appreciated

 
At 2/23/2009 3:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I keep finding different values on how big the derivative market is. What is the definitive answer? Sources?

 
At 2/23/2009 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

1) Why did Zimbabwe experience Hyperinflation? Confidence collapsed.

2) What happened to Iceland? Confidence collapsed.

3) What is the US doing that will send us down the same path? Killing public confidence.

4) Our Debt as a percentage compared to our GDP has not reached its maximum, so we should still be ok right? Wrong. Debt is ballooning at the same time as GDP is collapsing. Our debt can never be paid off. It will be defaulted on through currency debasement.

5) Iceland's Debt as a percentage compared to their GDP was not that large, why did they fail? Confidence collapsed.

6) How much money has the US actually injected into the system in the last year or so...? M0 - has more than doubled. That's about 1 Trillion, or slightly less.

7) How much money has Zimbabwe injuected into their system in the last year or so...? Quintillions.

8) Why will the dollar collapse...? International confidence in the dollar will collapse.

9) Why are our bonds still valuable? Because speculators are speculating on them expecting the Fed to buy them back giving the speculators a risk-free profit. No one is actually buying US bonds to hold them for 10 or 30 years. It's all a short term play that will end once they start monetizing.

10) One could argue that this stimlus package will create and keep a lot of jobs. What is the counter argument? The stimulus package creates no new productivity. It steals productivity from the private sector and redistributes it to the public sector where no new value is added to our economy. Taking from one pocket and putting less in another (because the bureaucracy steals a lot of it).

11) What will it take for China to dump our dollars? They will soon realize that what they hold is worthless. because if they dump it it's value drops and if they hold it it's value drops. Only when they buy more does it stay the same. But what good is money if you can't spend it. They will soon realize this paradox.

 
At 2/23/2009 4:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I keep finding different values on how big the derivative market is. What is the definitive answer? Sources?

Seems to be $1.14 quadrillion. But I assume you come from this thread.

Most of these derivatives are like insurance policies. So do you value them at what the buyer paid? Or do you value them at what the seller will have to pay out if things go boom? Or do you value them at what they can trade for right now? Because they resell these little monsters. Or do you value them at the net value, where if A sold to B, and B sold to A, then they net out at zero. Many ways to value something that has no value and at the same time has too much value.

 
At 2/23/2009 8:11 PM, Blogger glenn said...

Randy, Thanks for your efforts. GREAT SITE ! Denninger all over AIG tonight at market-ticker.denninger.net . I've been wondering - AIG operates in 130 countries of which the USA is one . Has 110,000 workers of which 30,000 (27%) are Americans. Yet American taxpayers 100% on the hook. Dot + Dot + are we getting closer ?

 
At 2/23/2009 10:07 PM, Anonymous jerry said...

"One could argue that this stimlus package will create and keep a lot of jobs. What is the counter argument? The stimulus package creates no new productivity. It steals productivity from the private sector and redistributes it to the public sector where no new value is added to our economy. Taking from one pocket and putting less in another (because the bureaucracy steals a lot of it".

I have to disagree-----the stimulus, although is not of the best quality, since it gives billions to the private sector in the form of mega-bank bailout and zombie cash injections, will create jobs, and put people back in the workforce for a period of time. Many of those people, who are now getting unemployment, or are currently underemployed, will go back into the workforce earning more than they are currently collecting or earning. Taxes will be paid to the government, and the employer will be making money, and a portion will be paid in taxes, too. The employer may actually expand his workforce, too. Not all the stimulus will be going to the public sector, actually only 4.5%.

Actually, value IS added to the economy in that for every $1 issued in the form of stimulus, around $1.23 is returned to the government. The reverse occurs with bailout.

During the 30 year long Ponzi scheme, beginning with Reagan and ending today, money had been taken from the working class pocket and placed into the non-productive economy called financial sector class. Most of which has burned up.

If China dumps our dollar, they will be cutting their own throat by creating a trade protectionist war. That they don't want.

All the currencies of the world are collapsing. The issue is how will oil be traded?

 
At 2/24/2009 7:20 AM, Anonymous jerry said...

An explanation to why Japan's economy had difficulty.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/122220-the-moral-of-japan-s-lost-decade?source=email

 
At 2/24/2009 7:47 AM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Another good read from Quinn.

THE BURNING PLATFORM

 
At 2/24/2009 1:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Ww4Nu8_UU&feature=PlayList&p=799B1D8D473CBC14&index=41

 
At 2/24/2009 4:28 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

"40"

 
At 2/24/2009 4:29 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Bank Nationalization Isn't the Answer

 
At 2/24/2009 4:32 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

How the Economy Was Lost

 
At 2/24/2009 5:30 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Most of you probably know something about Sibel Edmonds. I have read a lot of articles concerning her story. It's more evidence of utter corruption among the upper echelon. Pass this around to your friends.

Sibel Edmonds

 
At 2/24/2009 9:19 PM, Blogger Rob said...

Randy,
Great site. Man, I wish I had found it before PCSing here to Nellis from Aviano a couple of years ago...and buying a house. That underwater, 1/2 investments, job loss (wife) scenario you mentioned above...yeah, that's me. :-)
Fortunately, I have the relative guarantee of the military paycheck and healthcare. Vegas may have wiped me out but I should be able to rebuild.

Take care, keep up the great work.
Rob

 
At 2/25/2009 2:49 PM, Anonymous Willy2 said...

According to this graph the US economy already started to tank in the 4th quarter of 1997. The average number of (overtime) hours worked per week peaked in late 1997 and did not fully recover during the timeframe 2003-2007. Other scary graphs are this one and this one. See how the graph fell off a cliff in 2001. This was IMO the reason Alan Greenspan agressively lowered interestrates in 2001.This website has many interesting graphs available.

 
At 2/25/2009 5:12 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

Everybody can relax. Here is what Ben said.

"There is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009"

 
At 2/25/2009 5:45 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

A clip of Ron Paul on CNBC. Notice how the bobblehead anchors loathe his harsh words of reality by dismissing missing the opening statements as a waste of time.

Ron Paul clip

 
At 2/25/2009 6:34 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...


A planet at the brink?

 
At 2/25/2009 7:46 PM, Blogger Justin_n_IL said...

The Crisis of Credit Visualized - Part 1

 
At 2/25/2009 8:24 PM, Anonymous Happy as a clam said...

Just wanted everyone to know that I ordered some silver from the link on the right side of randy's blog (SuperiorSilver)about 1 week ago (I spoke with David) and just received my beautiful Liberty Buffalo coins. A Great experience and I'm happy as a clam!

 
At 2/25/2009 9:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Majority Of U.S. States Join Sovereignty Movement, Assert 10th Amendment Rights

 
At 2/25/2009 11:38 PM, Anonymous Captain Moroni said...

So I've looked at the Global Money supply and I've made a conclusion. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Suppose The United States didn't print anymore money. If an honest correction were to be made of all currencies, the dollar would devalue greatly. It is one of the most abundant currencies, so therefore it should be worth the least right...? (Supply/Demand rule) And this is if no more were printed...

 
At 2/26/2009 12:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cpt.Moroni,
I believe the US Dollar was already hyperinflated as of 12 years ago from an Austrian Economics perspective. There is always a delay between printing and price inflation. The 12 year (or more) lag is due to A) Asia soaking up excess $'s B) 9/11 and the war on terror soaking up excess $'s, and C) Housing bubble soaking up excess $'s. Now with all the sponges gone, those excess $'s must find somewhere to go.

I agree with you. We are in trouble even WITHOUT the current printing!
-Raul

 
At 2/26/2009 5:46 PM, Blogger JustiN_N_il said...

I've became rather fond of James Quinn's point of view though I don't agree with everything he says. He released another barn burner article today. Here's the link for that As General Motors Goes, So Goes the Nation. I noticed that he has his own site now called "The Burning Platform". Not sure how long it's been around but I just noticed it tonight. So anyways here THE BURNING PLATFORM is the link for it.

 

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